5 storylines that will define the final month in the SEC East
It’s been an interesting 2 months of football in the SEC East.
A season ago, the East bested the West in cross-divisional games for the 1st time since 2009. With a dominant Georgia, ascendant Florida and consistent bowl teams at Missouri, South Carolina and Kentucky, the East appeared to be headed for a renaissance. At SEC Media Days in July, the East was projected to be one of the most competitive divisions in college football.
The division hasn’t disappointed, though there have been some twists and turns along the way.
The top of the division has held up its end of the bargain as one of the most competitive in the country.
The East features 2 top 10 teams — No. 7 Florida and No. 10 Georgia — though for now, not in the order we expected in Hoover this July. Three SEC East teams have been ranked this season, though Missouri’s stay was short, thanks to its mind-numbing loss to Vanderbilt last weekend.
The rest of the division … well … it’s as messy as a kids shirt after Sunday chili dogs at The Varsity.
Will Muschamp’s South Carolina squad is better than its 3-4 record, as its win over then No. 3 Georgia in Athens demonstrates. But the Gamecocks have been slowed by injuries and the nation’s toughest schedule.
Tennessee hit Rocky Bottom in a home opener loss to Georgia State; the Vols are 2-5 and have made more news for how Jeremy Pruitt reacts to the failures of players he coaches than for winning football games.
Not to be outdone by their in-state brethren in a race to the football bottom, Vanderbilt is also 2-5, though Derek Mason did offer this marvelous soliloquy on grinding after his team anchored down and upset then-No. 22 Missouri last weekend.
Do you think Derek Mason is fired up? pic.twitter.com/JBmVv19nMz
— Brandon Zimmerman (@BZSEC) October 19, 2019
Finally, there’s Kentucky, where basketball season can’t come soon enough thanks to a rash of quarterback injuries that have left the Wildcats playing heroic defense but having little hope on offense, where they are lining up All-SEC wide receiver Lynn Bowden under center.
Put it all together and the SEC East has been anything but boring through 2 months and is set up for an exciting finish.
Here are 5 storylines that will define the SEC East in the season’s final 6 weeks.
The Largest … World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in a decade
For the 1st time since 2008, the Cocktail Party will feature 2 top 10 teams when the Gators and Bulldogs square off in Jacksonville on Nov. 2.
The winner has the inside track to be the East’s representative in Atlanta; the loser is likely out of the New Year’s 6 due to the 3-headed monster of Alabama, LSU and Auburn in the SEC West.
The game is dripping with the types of storylines college football fans, writers and especially editors dream about.
With a healthy Lawrence Cager, can Georgia’s passing game get off the schneid?
Will Florida get its bookend All-SEC defensive ends, Jon Greenard and Jabari Zuniga, back to play the Dawgs? And how healthy will they be? Pity them trying to contain the edge against D’Andre Swift and that massive Georgia offensive line without them.
Will Georgia — which ranks 96th in sack rate and 89th in defensive havoc rate — be able to generate pressure against Kyle Trask?
As for Trask, he’s been one of the best stories in college football this season, admirably filling in for injured starter Feleipe Franks and leading the Gators to a 7-1 start that has included 4th-quarter comeback victories over Kentucky and South Carolina. If he finds a way to win the Georgia game, his place in Gators lore and legend will be secure.
Don’t forget about mystifying Missouri
Has there been a stranger team in college football in 2019 than Barry Odom’s Missouri squad?
Missouri opened the year with a stunning loss at Wyoming in a game its athletic director never should have scheduled.
A road game at altitude, thousands of miles from your home campus, against a quality program outside the Power 5? That was malpractice and Barry Odom’s team laid a red zone egg (3 red zone turnovers) and lost.
The Tigers then steamrolled everyone they played for the next month and half until last weekend, when they went to Nashville and inexplicably lost to the worst Vanderbilt team of the Mason tenure.
I want to believe in Barry Odom. He’s an outstanding defensive mind and when the Tigers play well, they look as good or better than some of the best teams coached by Gary Pinkel, Odom’s mentor. But the truth is it’s impossible to defend Missouri’s 2 losses this season.
Nonetheless, Missouri remains very much in the hunt in the SEC East — pending the outcome of its probation appeal with the NCAA that could keep it out of Atlanta even if it was to win the division on the field. A decision is expected soon. The ban has to be reversed for the Tigers to be eligible for the SEC Championship Game and a bowl.
The Tigers are the 3rd team in a Florida-Georgia-Missouri round-robin that will decide the division, and Missouri gets a crack at the Gators, a team they’ve beaten of late, at Faurot Field. With Kelly Bryant at quarterback and a defense that ranks in the top 10 nationally, the Tigers will have their say as to who rules the East.
The end of the Fromm Era?
Looking at NFL Mock Draft boards, it’s more than reasonable to believe Jake Fromm is playing the final games of his storied Georgia career over the next 2 months. How does he finish?
It’s no secret that Georgia’s passing game has struggled over the past month. The injury to Lawrence Cager has deprived Georgia of its top target and freshman George Pickens, a massive talent, has been unable to pick up all of the slack himself.
It was always going to be difficult for Fromm at times this season given Georgia had to replace its top 5 receiving targets. But the Bulldogs’ struggles, especially over the past 2 weeks, are real and are coming against defenses (South Carolina and Kentucky) that had been very pedestrian.
Will it get worse before it gets better, especially with elite defenses like Florida and Auburn waiting in the wings?
Georgia fans booed Fromm’s offense against Kentucky and I admired D’Andre Swift’s comments that Georgia “will do what it has to in order to win games” and “if people don’t like it, they can decide not to come.”
But with all due respect to Swift, to win big games, Georgia needs the great Jake Fromm — the guy who out-dueled Baker Mayfield at the Rose Bowl, lit up the Gators last season in Jacksonville and stood toe to toe with Tua and Jalen Hurts in Atlanta — if they are to accomplish their usually lofty goals.
This could be it for Fromm in Athens. He’s already an all-time Georgia great. The last month will determine the scale of his legend.
Battle for cross-divisional bragging rights
Can the East win the head-to-head with the West for a 2nd consecutive season?
It will be tough. At present, the East is 4-6 in cross-divisional games. Here are the matchups remaining:
- Georgia at Auburn (Nov. 16)
- South Carolina at Texas A&M (Nov. 16)
- Georgia vs. Texas A&M (Nov. 23)
- Missouri at Arkansas (Nov. 30)
If the East finishes 3-1 in those contests, which seems realistic, they will at least draw even with the West, which speaks to the improved football in the East division in the latter part of this decade.
Battle for bowl eligibility
Last year, the SEC East put an incredible 6 of its 7 programs in bowl games, with only struggling Tennessee left out.
This season, 4 bowl teams would be a chore and, depending on what the NCAA decides about Mizzou, only 3 East teams may go bowling.
Vanderbilt, despite the grinding, will almost certainly fall short, with dates against South Carolina and Florida remaining.
It would take a miracle for Jeremy Pruitt’s team to be bowl eligible. The Vols have shown something the past 2 weeks, but 4-8 still seems the most likely number for Pruitt’s program in Year 2.
Will Muschamp’s program has a shot, but the schedule could be prohibitive. Tennessee this weekend is a must-win, as is Vanderbilt the following week. After those 2 games, the Gamecocks would need 1 more win.
A tricky home date against a ranked Appalachian State squad that might be the best team in the Group of 5 might be the most likely victory, and that will be extremely challenging. Lose any of those 3 games, and Muschamp would need to beat Texas A&M in College Station or Clemson (good luck) to get bowl eligible.
Maybe now Muschamp can see why only giving Bryan Edwards 1 touch in the North Carolina game mattered?
That leaves Kentucky.
The way Mark Stoops’ team is competing despite having its best wide receiver lined up at quarterback makes this one of Stoops’ best coaching jobs, in my opinion. It was compelling stuff to watch his defense grind out stop after stop against Georgia last weekend, knowing they had little chance to score.
The schedule isn’t terrible.
Four of their final 5 games are at home with only Vanderbilt on the road. A matchup with an angry Mizzou next weekend is likely a loss, but even if that occurs, they would just need 3 wins over Tennessee, Vanderbilt, UT Martin and Lousiville to go bowling. It won’t be easy, but if you are still betting against Stoops and that program, you haven’t been paying enough attention.
1. Who’s defense ends up being better–Bama’s or LSU’s?
2. Which happens first–UGA fixes the offensive crapshow, or UF starts running the ball/defending the run more consistently?
1.) I think they are pretty even that game comes down to Tuas health.
2.)depends on who puts in the work more in the bye week you guys in your pass routes and timing or us with block schemes/more outside runs(where I think we’ve been more effective) and injuries honestly your offense gets better with Cager back, our run game gets slightly better if we have tony to do some jet sweeps and our run d gets better with Greenard and Zuniga back
Doesn’t look like Cager will be near 100%, though.
“1st time since 2008, the Cocktail Party will feature 2 top 10 teams”
these to Star Trek Enterprise plays… “It’s been a long time…”
“theme” not “these”… or from the classic 1977 Trooper album.. “It’s been a long time”.
I believe this an incorrect stat. Both teams were in the top ten last year when they played.
I should have clarified- both polls.
Florida was 11 in the coaches last year, 9 in AP. Good fact check 2Bits.
No worries Neil! It had been a while since last year. Thanks for writing on all things Gator Football. We appreciate your journalism here on the forum. Takes a brave person to put their opinion on display for all to critique. Keep on Keepin on!
Bama’s defense versus LSU’s defense seems like a toss-up to me. No strong feeling either way.
I don’t know that either Florida’s run game or Georgia’s receivers get better this year. It usually takes receivers at least a year or more to learn the playbook and to get their route running down. Jacob Copeland for the Gators is just starting to break out in the second half of his redshirt freshman season.
Florida’s offensive line is adequate in pass protection but they just aren’t elite. There’s a crop of elite freshmen behind them but they’re not ready yet.
Florida’s run defense is mostly about Greenard and Zuniga getting back. For all their acclaim as pass rushers, they are vital to setting the edge and allowing the linebackers to attack gaps.
Mizzou……LMAO, REALLY ????…….BBB !(Belk Bowl Bound)
Jobigator88 – As well as Mizzou plays at home combined with them eating UF’s lunch these past 3 years, I wouldn’t go be too cocky if I were you. Although they blew two games they were supposed to win, they are more than capable of beating UF again. Any team can lose any given Saturday including UF.
For only the sake of accuracy Mizzou only ate UF’s lunch the last two years. 3 Years ago UF won 40-14
Thanks for keeping me straight UF GreatAgain.
One Word For You……………VANDERBILT ????
Mizzou fans are comical. “Please, Please let me belong!” “I want to be relevant too!”
Let me in lol ummm hmmm u can’t even best us last 2 years lmao
Who of any standing has Mizzou beat at home?
Mizzou needs clearance to play in the swampwater bowl, Belk is a dream.
Smoked your ass in swamp last year and best you the year before
So hush little child do you really want us if we get our stride
Fromm is the fourth QB listed in most mocks now. Hard to say that four QB’s will go in the first round this year. The East West battle is pretty interesting this season. The deciding factor may come down to the title game. Lots of fun football left.
Really? I think the title game says it all Corporal Obvious.
What’s wrong with you? Stupid and insecure is no way to go through life.
come on you puss. Apply to SDS know it all. Acting like know it all is no way to go through nursing home.
It’s easy to know more than you. No one need brag about that. I’m happily retired. You’re just a bitter insecure turd. How sad.
retired from what? spongeing off taxpayers. Real good.
Poor guy. I make more from my military retirement than an idiot like you could ever earn. The private sector was pretty good to me too. You don’t see me spewing bitterness. Life is good. College football is my second favorite hobby, and I have plenty of time for it. Enjoy.
Usmc, what is wrong with you man. Why so angry? You are ruining the site for everyone.
Hell is about to freeze over. Two leathernecks going at it off base…. I guess we see the Semper Fidelis line stops at football.
LSUABC!Looks like the locals are impressed with your lack of knowledge.
Tell them a whopper and show them how full of bulls-it you are.
Feeling your oats ain’t ya?
LSUABC, yell them what a legend you are. AND so humble.
I’d be Missouri’s players are getting worn down mentally a bit from waiting for the NCAA to announce their decision. They shouldn’t be focused on it, but they’re young. BO needs to be able to keep them focused on each game as it comes and limit outside influences. Regardless of the reasons, MU has shown they aren’t motivated enough each and every week. I don’t think they pull off the win in the East.
be = bet.
No overconfidence about Missouri here, although without Cale Garrett I think they face a tall order against this Gator team.
While I hope he leaves early, Fromm should stay for his senior year and hope his receivers are improved next year. At best, he’s the He’s at best the fourth quarterback taken, after Burrow, Herbert and Tua.
Plus, given how messy Trevor has looked, and how god-awful the 2018 QB draft class (Allen, Darnold, Rosen, etc.) is panning out, it’s not a stretch to take a look at 2021. Plus, certain teams might be moving on or looking for successors by then, like the Broncos, Bengals, Jets, Saints, etc.
Is say he’s 6th or 7th qb taken. No way he jumps Tua, Burrow or Herbert. You forgot Hurts. Definite 1st rounder. Ehlinger may come out, as well as Eason. I am a Dawg for life. And I’m a Jake Fromm fan. But he’s not in the same class as these other guys.
You’re right. I forgot about Hurts, though I don’t think four quarterbacks go in the first round. I think Eason needs another year of college. He sat for a year and he’s been good but not great at Washington.
Something fascinating to think about is that Richt, who was something of a pro style quarterback guru, never offered Fromm.
Three different sites have Fromm as a first rounder in most recent Mocks, including CBS and McShay.
If he stays, it is a Peyton Manning thing where he just loves college football.
Well, I guess I just don’t get it. Wouldn’t be the first time. I admire the guy as a competitor and his intangibles, pre-snap ability and football IQ are great. His arm strength is probably adequate, but it appears that he regresses as his pass count hits 25 or so. I just don’t see how that works in the NFL.
Yeah so need Garrett but until u beat us fla sit down and learn to print before cursive
East-West parity is a mirage, LSU-Bama not equal UGA-Fla but if UGA clean sweeps the west it will still look good.
Safe bets for Mizzou – loss’s to UK-Arky, wins vs UGA-Fla
“as messy as a kids shirt after Sunday chili dogs at The Varsity.”
an apt description of the entire SEC this year, some Mizzou fans won’t get this reference until MU wins the East a few more times.
I don’t know. The bottom of the West is pretty bad this year. Definitely giving the bottom of the East a run for its money.
I am not sure I agree with this statement:
The winner has the inside track to be the East’s representative in Atlanta; the loser is likely out of the New Year’s 6 due to the 3-headed monster of Alabama, LSU and Auburn in the SEC West.
If the loser of the game wins out, you’d have to figure that a 10-2 UGA or a 10-2 UF would make a NY6 Bowl.
Both would also have wins over Auburn.
Haha but no playoffs for uga or fla ahhhhhh to bad so sad lol so u just as equal
Look at the stats again and explain how you concluded that our defense has been “very pedestrian” all year. You’re a professional, do better research.
Not in the job description at SDS. I don’t know why I bother with this place, clicking on these dumb articles is the whole point for them.
You wouldn’t characterize these numbers as “pedestrian”??
69th- Total Defense
57th- 3rd down defense
59th- opponent yards per play
55th- rushing defense
54th- yards allowed per rush
44th- sack percentage
59th- defensive havoc rate
55th- scoring defense
Seems “pedestrian” to me. Maybe “average” would have worked?
1. i hope that georgia figures out what the real problems are now since we have been noting that the pass defense over the middle starting with notre dame was in serious problems and finally now smart admits that the defense was atrocious
2. we also believe that smart must earn the 7 million dollars and no matter what some fans think this is far too much money to pay for any coach and we are not fans of elizabeth warren
3. we think fromm is a nice fellow but not a great qb since he seems not to be able to elevate the game to tua or burrows and maybe fields was better prospect but he did not perform last year like this year at osu
4. fromm must learn to throw over the middle since fla, auburn even missouri will not let him have enought time to throw bad shoulder passes
5. smart better wake up that runs up the middle are not working and stop wasting time with woerner, drob, simmons who do not seem to understand how to catch the ball
6. if ga wins the toss do not take the ball hope that the defense makes trask make a mistake
7. do not let any player run a kickoff back since the only one who did something positive was simmons and yet he fumbles too often and cook is not big enought to run back kickoffs
8. finally the secret weapon is blaylock smart must figure out how to use him
9. we need the corners to tackle and stop making penalties have lots of doubts about this david wilson , daniel, mcghee
dogs lost arik due to his perception of smart play calling in the last 2 games ——-we hope they pickup the other one from vegas ——-something must change soon
Scheduling Wyoming isn’t malpractice. 3 red zone turnovers is malpractice. Blaming the time zones and altitude for the turnovers is malpractice.
Agree. I’ve seen and heard on many platforms how stupid (now “malpractice”) it was for the AD to schedule the game. Everybody complains about schedules, they go out and do something about it and now we have “criteria” ….. less than 200 miles and lower than 3000 ft, etc? Like most of our teams, there are many games we “shouldn’t lose” and then darn if we don’t find a way to do so. Lots of chatter now Oregon shouldn’t have played Auburn. Good grief, guess you gotta have something to write/talk about everyday.
I think it was malpractice as a season opener. It was over 1,000 miles and at over a mile of altitude. Silly.
Good article. Lot to digest. Honestly, Kirby better do his best coaching of his life this week. Getting players healthy is not gonna be enough because tough opponent is doing same thing. Records don’t matter in Jax. Comes down to mental and physical toughness. I think Fla fans would agree.
Agreed !
I agree but I think offensive scheme can sometimes overcome physical toughness. I would rather be smarter than harder. However this game will be a combination of both. I hope Mullen cooks up a good scheme with lots of mismatches although I think UGA backers are athletic enough to keep up with Pitts and slots. Our wide receivers and Trask ability to find them will win or lose this game.
I just don’t see the NFL potential in Fromm that the so called experts do..Im no expert but I just don’t see it..I sometimes wonder if Eason hadn’t got hurt in first game of the year, would Fromm have ever played at Georgia? I have nothing against Fromm,to me he’s just a game manager type qb, not as talented as Eason or Fields..I might be wrong, he may end up being a good NFL qb but I don’t see it…it seems to me most of the good qb’s in the NFL are guys who can throw the ball, and beat you with their arm..I haven’t seen that from Fromm at all..