Friday Forecast: Saturday Football staff picks for Week 8 CFB slate
The Saturday Football crew is back for another week to provide picks against the spread for 10 of the biggest games in college football.
Here’s how things stand after seven weeks:
- Spenser Davis: 38-29-3
- Ethan Stone: 37-30-3
- Paul Harvey: 35-32-3
- Derek Peterson: 32-35-3
Let’s dive in.
No. 7 Penn State at No. 3 Ohio State (-4.5)
Spenser Davis: Penn State arguably has the best defense in the country. It has posted elite success rates vs. the run and the pass. It also creates more havoc than any team in the country. The problem? Penn State hasn’t played a good offense yet, let alone an elite one like Ohio State’s. By yards-per-play, the best offense Penn State has faced so far belongs to UMass (68th nationally). I like the Buckeyes at home to win by a touchdown. PICK: Ohio State
Paul Harvey: Everything in me is screaming to take Penn State +4.5, but I’m not sold for a number of reasons. I think Ohio State is a bit more battle-tested this season, and there’s no denying the benefit of playing in Columbus. This will be a fight all the way, but a late touchdown puts it out of reach. PICK: Ohio State
Derek Peterson: Spenser pointed out the lack of a true defensive test this season for Penn State, so I don’t need to write much more than this: Buckeyes at home, where they’ve won 33 of their last 35 games. PICK: Ohio State
Ethan Stone: History is not on my side (6 in a row for OSU), but I just think Penn State is the better team right now. Ryan Day is “hopeful” the Buckeyes will have either Miyan Williams or TreVeyon Henderson back, but that doesn’t convey much confidence in my eyes. It’s likely he has no clue like the rest of us. And to make it worse, Emeka Egbuka is in the same boat. Even with these 3 100% healthy I think I’d roll with PSU here. PICK: Penn State
No. 22 Air Force (-10.5) at Navy
SD: This is a big number, especially for an all-service academy matchup. But I think Air Force’s offense is legit and Navy hasn’t been particularly good on either side of the ball. Even in a game that should have a limited number of possessions, I think Air Force can cover this number going away. PICK: Air Force
PH: A lot has been made about Air Force’s 6-0 start to the season that it’s easy to overlook the tight home win over Wyoming a week ago. They’re a better team than Navy, but facing a similar style should level the playing field a bit for the Midshipmen. PICK: Navy
DP: Give me the Falcons. PICK: Air Force
ES: Conventional wisdom tells me that Air Force will get ahead of itself here in a game it should win fairly easily. The Falcons are the better team, but that line, it being at Navy and potential jitters from being on the national stage may bring them back down the Earth a bit. I hate that I’m doing this, but I’ll roll with Navy to cover and AF to win a close one. PICK: Navy
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Washington State at No. 9 Oregon (-20)
SD: I think Washington State got caught looking ahead to Oregon last week. This is probably the bottom of the market for a Cougars team that I think is still plenty talented. PICK: Washington State
PH: I don’t know what to make out of the Cougars coming off their worst performance of the season and heading to Autzen. However, I do know Oregon looked like a complete team against Washington a week ago and likely had a win secured if not for Dan Lanning’s decision. The numbers high, but the Ducks might need style points after last week. PICK: Oregon
DP: This was a three-point game a year ago, and one Oregon had to pull off a crazy rally in the fourth to steal. I don’t think it’ll be that entertaining again this season, but my ears perked up this week when the defense said Cougar quarterback Cam Ward is the most annoying quarterback they’ve faced. He can make something from nothing. He should also have a healthier receiver group for this game. Arizona is actually a really good team with Noah Fifita, and when you’re focused more on your next opponent — or… your next job? — 44-6 can happen. I’ve got Oregon outright, but I think Wazzu can keep it within 20. PICK: Washington State
ES: I think the “Is Washington State good?” era may be over, folks. They’ve lost a pair to UCLA and *ahem* Arizona in recent weeks. Oregon is the second toughest team they’ll face all season, fresh off a close, frustrating loss to the best team WSU will play all season. Call the ambulance. Pick: Oregon
Oklahoma State at West Virginia (-3.5)
SD: I think West Virginia is quite a bit better than Oklahoma State. The fact that this one is in Morgantown makes it even more puzzling that WVU is only favored by 3.5 points. Pick: West Virginia
PH: Both teams are 4-2 and have produced some clunkers in that promising start. I think being at home is the difference for the Mountaineers, but I’ll definitely take this game coming down to a field goal. PICK: Oklahoma State
DP: Give me the Pokes. PICK: Oklahoma State
ES: The Big 12 is the conference I have the least amount of hold on this season, but I do know West Virginia just fell in a tough one to Houston. But the Mountaineers return home and face an Oklahoma State team that just downed Kansas. Because CFB is chaotic, I’ll go with the home team to win by a touchdown. PICK: West Virginia
Minnesota at No. 24 Iowa (-3.5)
SD: I heard over and over again this week that Iowa is going to go 11-1. I doubt it! PICK: Minnesota
PH: Iowa is somehow 6-1 despite losing offensive pieces left and right. The good news for the Hawkeyes is that the ground game has taken off in the past two weeks. Iowa’s unlikely to win a blowout, but Minnesota’s offense is arguably just as anemic and the game will be played in Kinnick Stadium. PICK: Iowa
DP: The grotesque march to the Big Ten title game continues while the drive to 325 stays off-schedule. What a team. PICK: Iowa
ES: Iowa has a nice stroll to 11-1, all they have to do is take the platter being handed to them. Not sure this hapless Minnesota team can ruin that right now, even if Iowa is slowly losing every skill player they have to injury. Protect Leshon Williams, please. PICK: Iowa
No. 17 Tennessee at No. 11 Alabama (-8.5)
SD: Both teams have elite defenses and mediocre offenses. Alabama has faced a much tougher schedule and the Vols looked awful the last time they were asked to go on the road. Josh Heupel hasn’t been good against the spread in his tenure as UT’s coach. I think Alabama makes a statement in this game. PICK: Alabama
PH: I’m shocked this line went above a touchdown. Alabama is the better team and is playing at home with a shot for revenge, but the Tide are not winning any meaningful games in convincing fashion. I’m rolling with Nick Saban outright, but 8.5 is a bit rich. PICK: Tennessee
DP: A little like the Penn State-Ohio State matchup, I wonder how much stock to put into Tennessee’s defensive start. The Vols have yet to face an offense that ranks inside the top 40 by yards per play this year. The two top-50 offenses it has faced have both had respectable days moving the football. (Florida was one of those teams.) At home, in a matchup that will mean a great deal to all involved in Tuscaloosa, I’ll take the Tide. PICK: Alabama
ES: I think this line is disrespectful to Tennessee’s defense. This will be akin to every other Alabama win this season, though. It’ll be close because of Tennessee’s defensive front and a downright biblical ability to push the ground game, but Milton is likely to struggle against the Tide’s great defense too. I’ll take Tennessee to cover but lose by less than a touchdown. PICK: Tennessee
No. 2 Michigan (-24) at Michigan State
SD: Remember when Michigan was 0-3-1 against the spread? That feels like ages ago. The Wolverines have covered the number in their last 3 contests by an average of almost 19 points per game. I’m unfazed by the sign-stealing allegations. PICK: Michigan
PH: I was ready to hammer Michigan as a 24-point road favorite before Thursday’s drama of sign-stealing allegations under Jim Harbaugh. Is that just smoke or a legitimate issue? We’ll find out eventually… But there’s still no way I can pick MSU right now. PICK: Michigan
DP: Michigan has been stealing signs to distract the public from the actual atrocities Michigan has been committing against its opponents on the field this season. The Spartans are about to get rolled. After the “Free Harbaugh” nonsense in the opener, I get the feeling this latest NCAA distraction will have the team even more locked in. PICK: Michigan
ES: This being a rivalry makes me want to take the Spartans to cover, but I’m not falling for it. The Wolverines have beat up on every team they’ve faced, and this Michigan State team is downright awful, even for justifiable reasons. PICK: Michigan
No. 16 Duke at No. 4 Florida State (-14)
SD: I’m extremely conflicted here. On one hand, Duke is 6-2 against the spread as an underdog in the Mike Elko era. On the other hand, Florida State has found something in its run game and has been much better on defense over the past couple of weeks. If Riley Leonard doesn’t play, Duke has no chance in this one. Ultimately, I trust Mike Norvell in this spot. FSU is 5-2 ATS over the past two seasons as a double-digit favorite at home. PICK: Florida State
PH: Primetime on the road isn’t a great matchup for Duke if Riley Leonard isn’t available, but I trust Mike Elko ATS here. PICK: Duke
DP: Mike Elko has said Duke won’t play Leonard if it feels doing so will “put that ankle at risk.” I don’t think we’ll see Leonard, so I don’t think we’ll see much from Duke to scare Florida State. PICK: Florida State
ES: This is impossible to pick because of the uncertainty surrounding Riley Leonard. If he plays, it’s a Duke lock in my opinion. I’m going to pray he plays and take the points in case he doesn’t. PICK: Duke
No. 14 Utah at No. 18 USC (-7)
SD: Here’s something that went *way* under-the-radar last week: USC’s defense was mostly fine vs. Notre Dame! The Fighting Irish scored 48 points because USC’s offense kept coughing up the ball. But Notre Dame’s offense generated just 4.2 yards per play. For as bad as USC’s defense has been this season, Utah’s offense has been worse. I like USC at home coming off a bad loss vs. a putrid offense. PICK: USC
PH: Caleb Williams is bound to bounce back from last week’s debacle, but there are some other underlying issues at play for USC. Utah’s defense is bound to travel well and the Utes have had the number of the Trojans recently. I think USC gets a bit of revenge, but I see it close. PICK: Utah
DP: USC’s oft-discussed issues and the fact that this is Utah have people laying money hand over fist on the Utes to cover here. I get it. The Trojans haven’t been impressive on the offensive line for several weeks, and now have to handle Jonah Elliss and Utah’s very impressive defensive front. But Cameron Rising was a massive reason for Utah winning both games last season, and there was talk this week of a medical redshirt for the recovering quarterback. I don’t know how to feel about this game without Rising. Utah would need to keep the score in the 20s to have a realistic chance, and I’m not sure if that’s possible. This feels like a 31-17 spot where no one comes out happy. PICK: USC
ES: You know that part in The Dark Knight where Gambol (Michael Jai White) gets sick of the Joker’s games and slams his hands on the table? “Enough from the Trojans” PICK: Utah
Clemson (-3.5) at Miami
SD: Both of these teams are wildly unlucky to have two losses apiece already this season. If you glance at the numbers, both of these teams look pretty darn good still. Both are north of the 85th percentile nationally in offensive and defensive success rate. And yet, I don’t really trust either quarterback to take care of the ball. I see this as a toss-up game, so I’ll take the 3.5 points and the home team. PICK: Miami
PH: Back-to-back disastrous losses for Miami, and now the Hurricanes get Clemson at home? Any other year, the Tigers are probably the play this week, but Dabo Swinney’s program still hasn’t figured out the offense. He also wants to clear out the bandwagon and there’s no better way to do that than a third loss this year. PICK: Miami
DP: I’ll bite and take the Tigers on the road. PICK: Clemson
ES: I think Miami has just completely stopped working since Cristobal pulled his little game against Georgia Tech. I don’t feel too confident, but give me Clemson here PICK: Clemson
