Friday Forecast: Saturday Football staff picks for Week 9 CFB slate
The Saturday Football crew is back for another week to provide picks against the spread for 10 of the biggest games in college football.
Here’s how things stand after eight weeks:
- Spenser Davis: 46-31-3
- Paul Harvey: 40-37-3
- Ethan Stone: 39-38-3
- Derek Peterson: 39-38-3
Let’s dive in.
No. 1 Georgia (-14.5) vs. Florida
Spenser Davis: Neutral site game. Both teams off a bye. I don’t feel great about this, but I’m going to hold my nose and take the points. PICK: Florida
Paul Harvey: I fully expect this to be a classic Kirby Smart hoodwink game where Georgia rolls by 3 scores in a rivalry game. But, if the Bulldogs play like we’ve seen this year – without Brock Bowers – Florida has a serious chance here. PICK: Florida
Derek Peterson: SP+ expects this game to be a 15-point Georgia win and I may be mistaken but I don’t think SP+ takes the Brock Bowers injury into account there. This is a big game for Georgia. And with the first CFP rankings approaching, I trust Kirby Smart has this team aware of the “Georgia doesn’t belong in the top two/three” talk. I think Georgia will come out and make a statement that the defending champs are still No. 1 until beaten. PICK: Georgia
Ethan Stone: I trust Kirby Smart off a bye. The line made me think twice here, but I’m not sure the Bulldogs will be tested until next week against Mizzou. Give me Georgia: PICK: Georgia
No. 8 Oregon (-6.5) at No. 13 Utah
SD: I went against Utah last week and the Utes burned me. I’m going back to the well again. I still don’t believe in Utah’s offense and I think Oregon will be hyped up for this top-15 showdown. PICK: Oregon
PH: I’m starting to become a big believer in what Kyle Whittingham is doing at Utah. Last season, Oregon was a 3-point winner in Eugene. I’ll go with the Utes to keep it close once again, even considering the injury issues involved. PICK: Utah
DP: It’s a road game in the Pac-12 between two teams who have everything on the line. Do I believe Oregon has the ability to win this big? I do. Do I trust Kyle Whittingham and the power of Rice-Eccles Stadium — which hasn’t seen a loss for the home guys since 2020? Yes, I do. PICK: Utah
ES: USC is worse than everyone thinks they are, and I haven’t seen too many people confident in the Trojans. It’s still a heck of a win for Utah, but I just don’t know if the Utes can hold up with the Ducks here. I’ll take Oregon by a touchdown: PICK: Oregon
BYU at No. 7 Texas (-19)
SD: I think Texas has a pretty big advantage on both sides of the ball. The Longhorns are also at home for this one. But with Quinn Ewers out, I think Texas could look to run the ball more which could shrink the number of possessions in this game. In general, if you’ve got a big number (19 points) and a relatively low total (50) it’s a good idea to bet on the underdog. PICK: BYU
PH: The loss of Quinn Ewers is significant for the Longhorns. Just not for this game with Texas’ talent on either side of the ball likely to overwhelm BYU. PICK: Texas
DP: The Ewers injury doesn’t seem to really jive with that number. I’ll take the Cougars to keep it closer than 19 in a loss. PICK: BYU
ES: BYU’s defense forced 5 turnovers against Texas Tech. They have the No. 3 turnover margin in the country, facing off against a redshirt freshman in Maalik Murphy. Don’t get me wrong, Texas should still win this game, but I’ll take the points here all day long. PICK: BYU
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No. 20 Duke at No. 18 Louisville (-4.5)
SD: Louisville has crushed teams at home this season and is coming off of a bye week. Duke might start QB Riley Leonard this week and even if he does play, he almost certainly won’t be 100%. I like the Cardinals to run away with this one. PICK: Louisville
PH: Riley Leonard’s the key here, but I also think Mike Elko can throw some defensive tricks at Jeff Brohm and the Cardinals. It’s another tough road game for the Blue Devils, but Louisville is a different animal than FSU. PICK: Duke
DP: Brohm at home, where he’s 3-0 ATS this season. PICK: Louisville
ES: Duke is forever going to be a question mark while Riley Leonard remains questionable. The Cardinals are off a bye and looking to further prove themselves, I’ll roll with Jeff Brohm here. PICK: Louisville
Mississippi State at Auburn (-6.5)
SD: I went back and forth on this one. Ultimately, I’m going with the Bulldogs. I think the market might be overreacting to Will Rogers’ potential absence. The reality is Rogers hasn’t been all that impactful this season anyway — Mississippi State’s passing success rate is in the 32nd percentile nationally. State has been solid on the road this season, considering its overall record. PICK: Mississippi State
PH: Auburn has not eclipsed 21 points in an SEC game this season. Mississippi State has been marginally better, but it’s enough to like the Bulldogs here. If Will Rogers cannot go, the script of this one is flipped entirely. PICK: Mississippi State
DP: Four straight losses, none of them closer than seven points, and we’re calling Auburn a touchdown favorite at home? I admittedly don’t have a great read on Mississippi State but I don’t like anything about the way Auburn is playing at the moment. PICK: Mississippi State
ES: I’ll differ from my co-workers here. I get Arkansas’ defense isn’t half bad, but I’m not sure I can roll with a road team that will potentially be without its starting QB fresh off a 7-point outing against a team struggling as much as Arkansas. PICK: Auburn
No. 22 Tulane (-10.5) at Rice
SD: Rice is at home, has an elite passing offense, and has a chance to pull off a ranked win this week? Give me those points and don’t be surprised if JT Daniels puts Tulane on upset alert this weekend. PICK: Rice
PH: Tulane’s defense has a tendency to turn opponents one-dimensional on offense with a lockdown run defense. Unfortunately, Rice is already a team that is heavily focused on the passing game. The Green Wave most recently beat North Texas by 7 at home, so I’m not buying them as a double-digit favorite on the road. PICK: Rice
DP: Everything about this is screaming upset. My colleagues have referenced Tulane’s defensive strength and Rice’s offensive identity. Something is telling me to roll with the Green Wave. Rice is giving up 8 yards a pass this season and isn’t producing turnovers when the ball is in the air. I’ll save the graphic and take Tulane. PICK: Tulane
ES: Tulane’s defensive strengths really don’t fit well with the Owls, and the Green Wave has to travel to Houston. Gut instinct wants me to roll with Rice: PICK: Rice
No. 21 Tennessee (-3.5) at Kentucky
SD: Look, Tennessee has been bad on the road this season. And Kentucky is coming off a bye. But I see matchup advantages across the board for the Vols — I don’t think this number is high enough. PICK: Tennessee
PH: Kentucky’s 0-2 against teams currently ranked in the AP poll. The Wildcats are 5-0 in every other game. If the line were higher, it might change my thinking, but I’ll go with Tennessee to keep that trend of UK opponents going. PICK: Tennessee
DP: The Vols have won 18 of the last 20 meetings in Lexington. The last three visits, though, have all been decided by no more than four points. Tennessee’s second-half implosion last week has me wanting to side with the Wildcats off a bye week. Maxwell Hairston makes a play. PICK: Kentucky
ES: If Kentucky is going to win this game it’s going to fall on Devin Leary. Tennessee has looked like a different team on the road this season and just lost perhaps its top player in the secondary. But like my coworkers, I just don’t think the number is high enough. PICK: Tennessee
No. 3 Ohio State (-14.5) at Wisconsin
SD: Wisconsin has underwhelmed at almost every turn this season — and that’s without playing anyone nearly as good as Ohio State. I think the Buckeyes will cruise in Madison. PICK: Ohio State
PH: I’m absolutely concerned about Wisconsin’s Braedyn Locke facing Ohio State’s defense. It’s true that the Buckeye offense gives me some pause about picking the team to cover multiple scores, but I think the defense is just getting started and could flex its muscles in Madison. PICK: Ohio State
DP: The cheese curds in Madison are amazing. That’s the only interesting part of this for me. PICK: Ohio State
ES: Wisconsin has been a massive disappointment even before it ran into injury issues. This was supposed to be a dark horse team in the B1G. Instead, I don’t even see things being close come Saturday. PICK: Ohio State
No. 17 North Carolina (-11.5) at Georgia Tech
SD: North Carolina is a bad front-runner, but it’s pretty good when playing from a position of humility. Last week should have been a wake-up call for a Carolina team that is still one of the most talented squads in the ACC. PICK: North Carolina
PH: UNC most recently dropped a clunker vs. Virginia but Georgia Tech is coming off a loss to Boston College. I’m not going to overthink this one and trust Drake Maye to bounce back like all great QBs do. PICK: North Carolina
DP: Tech is struggling on defense. Welcoming a top-10 (and angry) offense won’t help anything. PICK: North Carolina
ES: Don’t think I’d want to be in the position Georgia Tech is in right now. I couldn’t tell you what happened to the Tar Heels last week against a hapless Virginia squad, but I can almost guarantee it won’t happen again. The line makes this intriguing, but I’ll roll with UNC regardless: PICK: North Carolina
No. 11 Oregon State (-3) at Arizona
SD: It’s gone mostly under the radar outside of Pac-12 circles, but Arizona has an elite offense. The Wildcats aren’t super explosive, but their overall success rate this season is 52.7% — good enough for the 93rd percentile nationally. Oregon State probably doesn’t deserve its No. 11 ranking based on the schedule it’s played. The Beavers’ strength of schedule is 93rd nationally, per FPI. I think the market will see the impressive ranking coupled with a low number and jump on the Beavers. I’ll zag and take the ‘Cats. PICK: Arizona
PH: Just when you think you have the Pac-12 figured out, Arizona goes on the road and smashes Washington State. A quick look at Oregon State also shows the Beavers have surrendered 78 points in 2 Pac-12 road games. Let’s find out if the Wildcats can keep that trend rolling. PICK: Arizona
DP: Jedd Fisch is keeping his starting quarterback a “mystery” until kickoff, but I have a hard time believing you can turn away from Noah Fifita after he led a 44-6 win on the road in conference play. Arizona is trending up, and Fifita is a big reason why. I like the Wildcats quite a bit. PICK: Arizona
ES: Arizona is quietly a very fun team that has yet to be blown out this season against a schedule consisting of Washington, USC, and Washington State. They torched the Cougars, but they’ve had trouble finishing games, dropping 3 by 7 or less. It’s a tough one to pick, and it makes sense to roll with the Wildcats at home, but Oregon State has served me well so far this season. PICK: Oregon State
