Matt Hayes: Can Florida — and NIL money — keep Anthony Richardson from NFL?
By Matt Hayes
Published:
We have hit a flashpoint with NIL and its impact on college football.
From enticing high school and transfer portal players to sign with a specific school, to the latest move of anything is possible in the NIL world: convincing players to say no to the NFL.
This year’s potential groundbreaking study: Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson.
“The goal is to make it comfortable to stay,” a source within the Gator Collective told me.
That goal will take plenty of money — and will be an easier or more difficult lift depending on how the remainder of the season plays out.
Richardson already has NIL deals with Champs Sports, Fanatics and Gatorade, and he is one of the highest-paid college football players on the NIL scale. How much money could convince Richardson to stay at Florida in 2023?
It all depends on the feedback Richardson gets from the NFL Draft Advisory Board.
If Richardson continues to make significant improvement over the remainder of the season — last week’s win at Texas A&M was his most complete game — he’ll likely be a top-15 pick in the NFL Draft. Remember, the NFL selects on potential at the quarterback position, especially players with elite athletic ability and unique skills.
But Richardson could also continue his uneven play and leave more questions for NFL personnel. He clearly has the talent; his release is rare, as is his dual-threat ability — which is becoming more of a factor in the NFL at the most important position on the field.
Lamar Jackson. Josh Allen. Deshaun Watson. Jalen Hurts. Justin Fields. Kyler Murray.
Richardson hasn’t done anything close to what those players accomplished in college football. But here we are, with a player many NFL scouts covet.
“He’s all over the board right now,” an NFL scout said of Richardson’s draft potential. “There are teams that would take him in the top 10, and others who don’t think he’s a Day 1 (pick). Can he turn more teams in the next 4 games? Maybe. The issue is processing. Does he see it? Does he throw it on time and with accuracy when he sees it? And are you investing in someone where you don’t really have that answer — or at least enough (game) tape to get that answer?”
Richardson has 10 career starts, and the numbers are hard to ignore. In 9 games this season, he is completing 54 percent of his passes and has a TD/INT ratio of 9/7. He’s averaging 7.2 yards per attempt.
Those numbers aren’t NFL-worthy in any shape or form. There’s zero chance for any quarterback to be selected in the draft — much less, the 1st round of the draft — with those numbers.
But Richardson isn’t any quarterback. And that’s what brings us back to the opportunity for NIL rules to make it interesting in the 7 weeks between the end of college football’s regular season and the last day to apply for the NFL Draft.
But this isn’t chump change, folks. This is real money.
There is a limit on the amount NFL rookies can earn, and there are specific salaries for each of the 32 1st-round picks. If we go by last year’s slotting for each pick (the 2023 draft could have marginally increased signing bonuses depending on the size of the overall salary cap), look at the numbers the collectives related to Florida would have to come up with to match what Richardson could earn:
• No .5 overall (DE Kavon Thibodeaux): $5.7 million salary; $20 million signing bonus.
• No. 10 overall (WR Garrett Wilson): $3.7 million salary; $12.1 signing bonus.
• No. 20 overall (QB Kenny Pickett): $2.5 million salary; $7.4 million signing bonus.
• No. 32 overall (S Lewis Cine): $2.1 salary; $5.1 million signing bonus.
Which of those money lines looks doable for any collective? If Richardson were the last player picked in the 1st round, he’d still earn more than $7 million in his 1st season in the NFL.
While that number is reachable for collectives, do those groups want to spend that type of money on a player who clearly has talent — but has led his team to a 5-4 record in his 1st full season as a starter?
Would it be more financially prudent for the collectives representing Gators athletes to spend that money on 3-5 major high school and/or transfer portal recruits — and find another quarterback in the portal?
Any real decision, more than likely, depends on Richardson. If the draft advisory board tells him he’s a top-15 pick, he can’t turn down more than $10 million in salary and signing bonus.
It also depends on how Richardson plays over the final 3 games of the regular season. If he continues his uneven play, the odds of keeping him in Gainesville increase.
It is then where we’ll see the NIL flashpoint — and just how much power it potentially has.
Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB
