Ad Disclosure
We’ve officially reached the halfway point, and I have a legitimate question.
What would surprise you in the SEC anymore?
We’ve already seen Vandy beat No. 1 Alabama, and we watched Kentucky beat No. 6 Ole Miss (at the time of the matchup). Arkansas knocked off a rolling No. 4 Tennessee team for its best win in 17 years. Shoot, we watched Mississippi State put up a better fight at Texas and Georgia than it did at home against Toledo.
At this point, it’s safe to say that the variance in a 16-team conference isn’t as wide as initially perceived. It means we could be setting up for a second half full of upsets. Maybe that begins in Week 8.
Here are some early thoughts on that:
Auburn vs. No. 19 Mizzou — Luther Burden III’s shoulder will be worth monitoring
Of all the things that could’ve happened with Mizzou’s bizarre trip to UMass, among the worst possible developments was seeing Burden go down. That happened on a play in which he got popped trying to haul in a high throw from Brady Cook:
Rough fall on that shoulder. Hope Luther Burden is okay. pic.twitter.com/5delnqyKTW
— Mark Kim (@MarkJKim_) October 12, 2024
Burden didn’t return to the game, though Eli Drinkwitz did say after the star receiver was on the sideline that “he’ll be fine.” Take that for what it is. Burden has been incredibly durable for his size, and he played through multiple injuries in 2023 without missing a game. But even in a matchup against a reeling Auburn team, anything less than the best version of Burden could be troubling for the Mizzou offense, which was already without leading rusher Nate Noel at UMass. The Tigers’ best path to navigating an underwhelming start involves Burden being the superstar he is.
South Carolina vs. Oklahoma — The Shane Beamer OU reunion could be a nice spot for the Gamecocks
Beamer loved his time in Norman on Lincoln Riley’s staff, and there wasn’t a Josh Heupel-like breakup, so there won’t be any sort of bitterness angle there. But would Beamer be giddy to leave Norman with a victory? You’d better believe it. The 1-3 conference record might not show it, but the Gamecocks have been far more “impressive” than “disastrous” in conference play. Ole Miss was bad, but outside of that, the South Carolina defensive line feasted on both Kentucky and Alabama, and that LSU game could’ve ended differently if some controversial calls had gone the home team’s way.
This should be a favorable matchup for the relentless South Carolina defensive line against an Oklahoma offensive line that’s desperate for answers. The Sooners might not have a script that involves a ton of dropback passes for Michael Hawkins Jr., but those 3-and-longs could decide this game if South Carolina gets sacks/turnovers in those spots.
No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 11 Tennessee — The weaknesses are … Alabama’s defense and Tennessee’s offense? What?
What a time to be alive. Is it wrong? Vandy and South Carolina nearly just handed the Tide consecutive losses, in large part because of Alabama’s horrendous defensive discipline. Meanwhile, Tennessee has been held to 25 or fewer points in 5 of its last 6 games against SEC competition dating back to last year. Go figure that Alabama’s defense could be a get-right game for the Tennessee offense. Alternatively, maybe the Nico Iamaleava-led Vols offense is exactly what the doctor ordered for Kane Wommack’s defense, which allowed 27 points against Core 4 competition this season.
The far more intriguing strength-on-strength matchup is the Vols’ defense against the Alabama offense. If James Pearce Jr. does to Jalen Milroe what Kyle Kennard did, that favors the home team. If Milroe does to Tennessee what he did in the first half against Georgia, that favors the visiting team. Either way, Josh Heupel has a monumental opportunity to do something extremely rare in recent memory — send the Tide faithful into free fall.
No. 14 Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State — Avoiding a 60-minute game would be another sign that A&M has turned the corner
Wait, isn’t it Mississippi State? As in, the team who has yet to beat an FBS team this year? How would that be a “turn the corner” game, you ask? Well, remember how I mentioned in the intro that the Bulldogs played competitive games on the road against Texas and Georgia? If A&M is going to be in the SEC hunt, it avoids a letdown against an emerging Mississippi State offense under Jeff Lebby. Let’s not forget that A&M isn’t that far removed from going into Florida and earning its first road win in nearly 3 years. We still need to see the Aggies consistently impose their will in road games to consider them a Playoff contender.
Coming off a bye, Conner Weigman should be in a nice spot to attack that Mississippi State secondary, just as Carson Beck did. Stringing together consecutive impressive SEC starts together is still something he’s working to prove. Now would be as good a time as ever to check that box.
No. 8 LSU vs. Arkansas — Let’s all start talking about Garrett Nussmeier as one of the nation’s best QBs … if he wins this one
For what it’s worth, I’m already talking about Nussmeier in that group of the top 10 quarterbacks in America. He didn’t have a banner showing against that dominant Ole Miss defense, but he was phenomenal in crunch time. That matters. He’ll need to be phenomenal to handle that Arkansas defense, which most recently perplexed Josh Heupel’s unit. Travis Williams has done a phenomenal job leading the Hogs’ defense this season, thanks in large part because Eric Gregory and Landon Jackson have been forces on that defensive line.
Related: Looking to place a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
Yet another key test awaits that all-world LSU offensive line. Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. have answered the call on a weekly basis. If that can continue on the road with Nussmeier staying upright and avoiding mistakes, the LSU quarterback will have earned himself unanimous national approval in his first season as a starter.
Ball State vs. Vanderbilt — You’d better believe a 3-game win streak would be monumental for the fightin’ Diego Pavias
I had to look it up. When was the last time that Vandy won 3 consecutive games against FBS competition in the same season, you ask? The end of the James Franklin era in 2013. Yeah, it’s been 11 (!) years since that happened. Barring Ball State pulling off an upset as a 4-touchdown underdog, the Dores will earn their third win in a row and their 5th win of the season. That begs the other question; how many times has Vandy hit 5 pre-November wins since it joined the SEC in 1933?
- 1937 (5-1 pre-November)
- 1938 (5-1 pre-November)
- 1950 (5-1 pre-November)
- 1984 (5-3 pre-November)
- 1999 (5-3 pre-November)
- 2007 (5-3 pre-November)
- 2008 (5-3 pre-November)
So that’s 7 such instances, but you know what Vandy has never done in program history? Clinch bowl eligibility before turning the calendar to November. With win No. 5 against Ball State, Vandy can do that the following … by shocking the world and beating Texas. Laugh or do as I do now — never doubt the fightin’ Pavias.
No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas — The UGA offense is far and away the best unit Texas’ defense has seen, but will that matter?
At the midway point of the season, Texas has the No. 1 defense in America in both scoring defense and yards/play allowed. The Longhorns have been lights out on that side of the ball, which is a big reason why they’re the No. 1 team in the country. Having said that, it’s not crazy to suggest that Georgia is easily the best offense they’ve seen. Here are the scoring ranks for the offenses that Texas has faced so far:
- Colorado State, No. 107
- Michigan, No. 102
- UTSA, T-No. 105
- Louisiana-Monroe, T-No. 105
- Mississippi State, No. 71
- Oklahoma, No. 96
You could argue that Texas played a big part in why those teams are ranked where they are, but either way, Georgia’s No. 35 scoring offense possesses a unique challenge. If the Longhorns can force Carson Beck into some of the mistakes we’ve seen him make in the first half of 2024, nobody will be scoffing at those defensive rankings anymore.
Kentucky vs. Florida — Billy Napier can wipe away that post-A&M resurgence if the unthinkable happens
I’m not sure if you’ve heard this, but Napier hasn’t beaten Kentucky yet. In fact, Florida’s last win against the Cats came back in 2020. Three consecutive years, Mark Stoops got the last laugh on the Gators, 2 of which were Napier’s doing. You understand what I’m getting at. Going 0-3 against Kentucky would be deemed a fireable offense, especially with 2 of those coming in The Swamp. That’d be more losses than Florida had against UK (2) from 1980-2020.
Lagway’s first career start against SEC competition will be fascinating on a variety of levels. As bad as UK’s offensive showing has been for the majority of the season, that defense is still plenty capable of making life difficult on a young quarterback. Deone Walker’s ability to generate pressure from the interior of that UK defensive line will be pivotal in that effort. How Lagway manages that for Florida could determine whether the Napier era lasts beyond this weekend.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
