After 4 weeks of SEC play, there’s a pretty clear hierarchy in the league. Six SEC teams will be playing for likely 4 (maybe 5) College Football Playoff spots. The league seems to have a massive gap between No. 6 and No. 7.

Meanwhile, we’re still here projecting final regular season records. As we get deeper into the season, there’s more looking at the schedule and trying to forecast individual games. But for the moment, still largely based off something more of a consensus view of that team’s schedule, here’s our regular season projections for the SEC.

Georgia: 11-1 (3-0, off this week)

While we started with UGA at 12-0, after an ugly grinder with Kentucky and the impressive work of the teams behind UGA, we moved the Dawgs back to 11-1.

With road games at Bama, Texas and Ole Miss, it’s just too tough of a run for UGA to emerge completely unscathed. That said, many recent moments of UGA giving underwhelming performances have been followed by beatdowns. If UGA can ever get its players healthy, they’re still the top contender. But that is an “if” by now.

Texas: 11-1 (4-0, beat UL-Monroe 51-3)

That Longhorns’ schedule is looking pretty nice. Yes, they get Georgia, but it’s at home on Oct. 19. Who’s the second toughest game on UT’s schedule? At Texas A&M, home against Florida or Kentucky Oklahoma hasn’t shown much, but rivalry games always could be in that list too. It’s not exactly murderer’s row, so we’ll leave UT at 11-1.

Ole Miss: 10-2 (4-0, beat Georgia Southern 52-13)

Is it fair to say we’re still figuring out Ole Miss? Seeing how the Rebels fare in their next 3 games (vs. Kentucky, at South Carolina, at LSU) should tell the tale of whether 10-2 is about right, a bit optimistic, or even underrating Ole Miss. The offense has been amazing, but for the moment, the lack of competition keeps the Rebels here.

Alabama: 10-2 (3-0, off this week)

Talk about a game to learn something. If Alabama beats Georgia, they’re up top with Texas. If not, a challenging schedule could drop them to a 9-3 projection, considering that road games at Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma are still upcoming.

Missouri: 10-2 (4-0, beat Vanderbilt 30-27)

For the second week in a row, Missouri had to hang on against relatively underwhelming competition. The Tigers don’t have many tough games ahead. They’re off in Week 5, and then travel to Texas A&M in a game that presents an opportunity for the Tigers to do more than survive and advance. If the path to a potential Playoff spot via remaining schedule is the topic, then Missouri is in brilliant shape.

Tennessee: 10-2 (4-0, beat Oklahoma 25-15)

The Vols took care of business. If they didn’t have Alabama and Georgia on the schedule, UT would be entitled to an 11-1 projection. But they do, so we’ll stick at 10-2 for the moment.

LSU: 8-4 (3-1, beat UCLA 34-17)

Nothing especially impressive here. This UCLA team is fairly awful, but the game was tied at halftime and competitive well into the fourth quarter. LSU tightened up its run defense, but can the Tigers prove much against a team with a pulse? The Ole Miss game on Oct. 12 is a really solid chance to make a statement or get lit up like a Christmas tree.

Texas A&M: 8-4 (3-1, beat Bowling Green 26-20)

On the one hand, it’s a 6-point home win against a MAC team. On the other, A&M found a way to win with Marcel Reed at quarterback. The Aggies don’t play Georgia and Alabama, which helps. But Texas, Missouri and LSU could all be rough. Conner Weigman’s return is a key story to watch.

Oklahoma: 6-6 (3-1, lost to Tennessee 25-15)

There are real issues for an Oklahoma team that has largely been a survive-and-advance group anyway. Tennessee shut down the run, allowing 36 rushing yards on 34 plays. In the air, Jackson Arnold was awful and gave way to a sharper Michael Hawkins Jr.

Texas, at Ole Miss, at Missouri, home against Alabama, and at LSU all remain. This season could get ugly in a hurry if the offense can’t figure things out.

South Carolina: 6-6 (3-1, beat Akron 50-7)

This was an easy win as USC clearly got the assignment. After a week off, the LaNorris Sellers-less Gamecocks host Ole Miss and go to Alabama and Oklahoma. Things do let up a bit from there, but a potentially 3-4 USC team will have to keep focused and best Texas A&M or Missouri to reach 6 wins (as Clemson lurks).

Kentucky: 6-6 (2-2, beat Ohio 41-6)

Defense has carried Kentucky, but betting against the offense seems pretty wise. Meanwhile, while a home game with Auburn looks better, a trip to Florida could be interesting. Given the way the Gators are going, Billy Napier could be gone or campaigning for an extension by then. But that game looks like the fulcrum of Kentucky’s remaining season.

Arkansas: 6-6 (3-1, beat Auburn 24-14)

The Hogs are halfway to 6 wins and seem like a team that could get there. Next week’s game against Texas A&M is winnable and pivotal. Taylen Green gives Arkansas a diverse and competent offense, but not a terribly exciting one. The Hogs need to hit more big plays next week, as A&M won’t give up 5 turnovers like Auburn did.

Auburn: 5-7 (2-2, lost to Arkansas 24-14)

The Tigers had an awful game against a limping Arkansas team. All of a sudden, Auburn is likely to be 2-4 going into its bye week. They come out of that bye going to Missouri and then Kentucky. With A&M and Bama lurking on the back of the schedule, 5-7 seems more likely than a bowl appearance.

Florida: 5-7 (2-2, beat Mississippi State 45-28)

The key now for Florida is a shortened October. After a bye week next week, Florida plays UCF, at Tennessee and Kentucky. The Gators really have to go 2-1 to have a shot at a successful season. The November schedule remains brutal, and honestly, even a 5-2 Gators team could struggle to get a 6th win. As things stand, we’ll point it at 5-7. But keep up the precision passing game and give up less than 480 yards (as they did this week) and UF can still do positive things.

Vanderbilt: 3-9 (2-2, lost to Missouri 30-27)

How much different would this projection be if Vandy had held on? Maybe a good bit. After all, upcoming is Ball State and road games with Kentucky and Auburn, each of whom has been pretty punchless offensively.

But even at its relative best, Vandy found a way to lose. That seems like the story of the 2024 season for this team.

Mississippi State: 2-10 (1-3, lost to Florida 45-28)

Guess they’ll be glad they scheduled UMass. But seriously, hard to call for a win here. No Vandy or Kentucky or Auburn on the schedule. Home against Arkansas is the most winnable league game left, but it’d be tough to pick the Bulldogs.