Ad Disclosure
Let’s set the first 12-team Playoff, shall we?
Saturday’s conference championship weekend started slow, but it delivered down the stretch. Arizona State, Boise State, Clemson, Georgia and Oregon earned automatic bids.
We know that those 5 teams are in the field. We don’t know where they’ll be seeded when the field is announced on Sunday at noon ET.
So what will the selection committee do Sunday?
Here’s my final projection for Sunday (remember that the 4 highest-ranked conference champions get automatic first-round byes):
12. SMU
Will the selection committee put the Mustangs in after they clawed back and lost in dramatic fashion on a last-second kick? Yes. The selection committee doesn’t want to set the precedent that it’s punishing teams that make it to the conference title games and rewarding idle teams like Alabama. Even though SMU doesn’t have a win against a team in the current CFP Top 25, it beats Alabama for the final spot.
11. Clemson
Go figure that Clemson losing to South Carolina for loss No. 3 wasn’t the end of the road. The Tigers can thank Syracuse and true freshman kicker Nolan Hauser for that. Hauser’s 56-yard boot clinched an automatic berth. That was Clemson’s first win vs. an FBS team with at least 8 victories, which likely won’t be enough to leapfrog Arizona State to earn a bye.
10. Indiana
The Hoosiers needed chaos and they got it thanks to some Week 13-14 results. There won’t be any real questions about Curt Cignetti’s squad after Tuesday’s slot at No. 9. The Hoosiers will get a road Playoff game.
9. Tennessee
The Vols won’t get their home Playoff game, but they’ll still get a spot, which didn’t seem like a certainty after the Georgia game. And hey, maybe Ohio State looking vulnerable against a smash-mouth Michigan team will bode well for the Vols in their first Playoff appearance.
8. Ohio State
The Buckeyes will barely get that final home Playoff spot. That’s not as damaging as that Michigan loss should be when you consider that the Buckeyes would’ve been left out of the field entirely for that loss before the 12-team Playoff. But an 8-9 matchup vs. Tennessee should be loaded with intrigue.
7. Notre Dame
The Irish had a home Playoff berth clinched Tuesday night without having to play in a conference title game. Something tells me the selection committee won’t punish Texas and Penn State, both of which were also 11-1 before the weekend, just because they had to face elite teams in conference title games.
6. Penn State
Penn State pushed Oregon to a 60-minute game, but it didn’t add an all-important win to make a case for that No. 1 overall seed. Given how the selection committee has slotted Penn State just behind Texas, it would make sense if they stayed that way with a home Playoff berth.
5. Texas
An overtime loss to Georgia was devastating, but the possibility of hosting a home Playoff game should still be inevitable. While the Longhorns don’t have a win against the current CFP Top 25, they did get the benefit of the doubt from the selection committee at every turn. I wouldn’t expect a significant drop for an 11-win team from the SEC.
4. Arizona State
Yes, I think Arizona State will be ranked ahead of Clemson. Kenny Dillingham needs to be in the National Coach of the Year discussion. That was a complete beatdown of Iowa State. The Sun Devils should stay ranked ahead of Clemson because of how convincing that victory was. The Sun Devils will be a scary quarterfinal matchup.
3. Boise State
What a time to be alive. At No. 10, I don’t think Boise State will get jumped as a 1-loss team that has continually been respected by the selection committee. Ashton Jeanty and Co. blew out a ranked UNLV squad and should be slotted ahead of a pair of Power Conference champs.
2. Georgia
UGA deserved that 2-seed after beating Texas twice. Sure, the Dawgs had the 2 losses, but they had 4 wins against teams that were in the Top 25, 3 of which were against teams in the field. They avoided any sort of scare about getting the Florida State treatment for the Carson Beck injury and grinded out a win in overtime.
1. Oregon
We knew the Ducks just had to take care of business and there’d be no debate about the last remaining FBS unbeaten. Dan Lanning’s squad won’t have any sort of Selection Sunday drama other than figuring out which matchup it’ll get in the quarterfinal.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
