Each week, Saturday Down South’s playoff predictor will project which four teams would make the College Football Playoff if the season ended now.

The formula takes into account Vegas national championship odds, offensive and defensive efficiency, analytics, strength of schedule, division standings and the major polls.

The team with the lowest score is the most likely to make the four-team Playoff. (You can find a longer explanation of the formula at the bottom of this post.)

Keep in mind, this is not a projection of where things will be at the end of the season. It’s a projection of where things stand if the season ended today.

Florida State made its debut in our top four for the first time all season. The Seminoles and Baylor Bears were the biggest beneficiaries of last weekend’s bloodbath at the top of the polls. Alabama, meanwhile, remains in good position despite the loss, but must keep winning.

Week 6 eliminated eight more teams from Playoff contention, meaning 93 of the 128 FBS programs have no hope this season.

THE PLAYOFF TEAMS

1. Auburn

Score: 28.5

Last Week: No. 4

The Numbers Say: Football Outsiders’ FEI metric (analytics) prefers the Pac-12 to the SEC at the top and ranks Auburn seventh. The polls, Vegas, SEC standings and scoring efficiency all favor the Tigers.

Bottom Line: The Tigers still have road games against Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama. Auburn has barely gotten started in SEC play.

Next Up: at Mississippi State.

2. Baylor

Score: 47

Last Week: No. 6

The Numbers Say: The Football Outsiders metric practically hates the Bears, ranking Baylor 19th. Vegas still isn’t sold, giving the team the eighth-best national championship odds. But BU has the nation’s best combined offensive and defensive scoring efficiency and remains undefeated.

Bottom Line: The Bears have a bear trap Saturday, one that just annihilated the Sooners defense. Get past that and a road showdown against Oklahoma looms with the Big 12 title on the line.

Next Up: vs TCU.

3. Ole Miss

Score: 47.5

Last Week: No. 9

The Numbers Say: Vegas ranks Ole Miss at No. 10 in terms of national championship odds. The nation’s No. 2 defense in terms of scoring efficiency helps, but the No. 35 offense hurts.

Bottom Line: If the Rebels can get past a tough road game Saturday, 8-0 should be closer to “a given” than “obtainable.” Auburn and Mississippi State still remain on the schedule.

Next Up: at Texas A&M.

4. Florida State

Score: 64

Last Week: No. 7

The Numbers Say: Analytics don’t like FSU. The Football Outsiders metric slots the Seminoles at 14th in the country. The team also gets penalized for ranking No. 23 (offense) and No. 43 (defense) in scoring efficiency.

Bottom Line: It helps the statistics to get a game against Wake Forest, who may lose to Vanderbilt by double digits. The ACC schedule is a gift for a team that seemingly struggles against any decent power conference opponent. But Notre Dame and Louisville are real threats.

Next Up: at Syracuse.

THE PAT HADENS

These teams are the last ones cut by that (crazy?) College Football Playoff Committee. If the season ended today.

5. Mississippi State

Score: 65

Last: No. 12

The Numbers Say: Out of all the top contenders, Vegas likes the Bulldogs the least. At 28/1, MSU is less likely to win the national title than one-loss Pac-12 teams UCLA and Oregon. Otherwise our formula would rank Mississippi State ahead of Florida State.

Bottom Line: The Bulldogs can win a third consecutive game against a Top 10 team, but this may be the most difficult test yet. If MSU wins, though, it should be 9-0 before playing Alabama.

Next Up: vs. Auburn.

6. Notre Dame

Score: 66.5

Last: No. 8

The Numbers Say: Analytics aren’t a big fan of the Fighting Irish. And despite Everett Golson at quarterback, Notre Dame’s offensive scoring efficiency ranks No. 43 in the country.

Bottom Line: The Irish survived Stanford, but face a tough slate ahead. Several teams are counting on Notre Dame to knock off FSU.

Next Up: vs. North Carolina.

7. TCU

Score: 80.5

Last: No. 21

The Numbers Say: The Horned Frogs have a terrific scoring efficiency and remain unbeaten. The human polls, Vegas and some traffic in the Big 12 standings keep TCU from threatening for a playoff spot if the season ended today.

Bottom Line: If TCU’s revamped offense can pull off a second consecutive shocker, the Horned Frogs become the surprise favorite in the Big 12 and a true playoff contender.

Next Up: at Baylor.

8. Alabama

Score: 88

Last: No. 1

The Numbers Say: There are three unbeaten teams in the SEC West, which is the largest detriment to the Crimson Tide’s playoff hopes as of today. The team also took a hit with the analytics crowd and gets a 10-point penalty for losing a game.

Bottom Line: The Tide still can work its way back to playoff contention by beating Mississippi State, Auburn and the SEC East champion, but it’s a long road for a flawed team.

Next Up: at Arkansas.

THE DAN MARINOS

Strong contenders, still alive, but unlikely to actually win anything.

T9. Oklahoma: 102
T9. Georgia: 102
11. Michigan State: 104
12. Ohio State: 105
13. Oregon: 108
14. Arizona: 122.5
15. Texas A&M: 130
16. Kansas State: 151.5
17. UCLA: 161.5
18. Georgia Tech: 167
19. Missouri: 178.5
20. Nebraska: 180.5

THE BRADY HOKES

Good enough to make a mediocre bowl game. Can you say San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl?

21. Louisville: 182
22. Oklahoma State: 183.5
23. Marshall: 190.5
24. Arizona State: 209.5
25. California: 219

THE VANDY JAMES FRANKLINS

The ceiling is limited, but they’re feisty.

26. Utah: 220.5
27. Iowa: 239
28. Florida: 244
29. Penn State: 250.5
30. Kentucky: 253

THE DONALD STERLINGS

Only alive on paper.

Count: 4 of 128

Duke
Minnesota
Oregon State
Washington

ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION

These teams will not get a College Football Playoff bid.

Count: 93 of 128

Air Force
Akron
Appalachian State
Arkansas
Arkansas State
Army
Ball State
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green
Buffalo
BYU
Central Florida
Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Clemson
Colorado
Colorado State
Connecticut
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Fresno State
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Hawaii
Houston
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa State
Kansas
Kent State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana Tech
LSU
Maryland
Massachusetts
Memphis
Miami (Fla.)
Miami (Ohio)
Michigan
Middle Tennessee
Navy
Nevada
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Northern Illinois
North Texas
Northwestern
Old Dominion
Ohio
Pitt
Purdue
Rice
San Diego State
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Carolina
South Florida
Southern Methodist
Southern Miss
Stanford
Syracuse
Temple
Tennessee
Texas
Texas Tech
Texas-San Antonio
Texas State
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UNLV
USC
UTEP
Utah State
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington State
Western Kentucky
Western Michigan
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming