SDS Roundtable: What college football prop bet would you bet your stimulus check on?
Each SDS roundtable discussion involves the SDS staff providing individual answers and comments to questions covering a wide range of sports and non-sports topics. In this discussion, we ask the question: Most Americans soon will receive a stimulus check. Which college football prop bet is worth risking that check on?
Previous roundtable discussions:
- If you could change 1 thing about college football, what would it be?
- What are you watching right now?
- Who is your favorite SEC football player of all-time?
- What are your 3 favorite postseason moments involving SEC teams?
- Which 4 SEC athletes are on your Mount Rushmore?
- What is your most painful sports memory?
- The greatest team I ever saw …
- Which school’s all-time position group is the best in SEC history?
- Who are your way-too-early picks to make the College Football Playoff?
- If and when the SEC expands, which 2 teams should it add?
- Who is your pick to win the SEC East, SEC West in 2020?
- Who is your favorite player from every SEC program?
- Who is your favorite SEC personality to follow on Twitter?
- Which SEC program produced best pro sports duo?
A bit of background …
Most Americans soon will receive a stimulus check to help mitigate the financial stress related to COVID-19. The money is intended to help with basic needs during traumatic times — housing, food, other bills, etc. We’ve been around SEC football long enough to know that some of that cash will go in the gambling fund. We’re all looking for ways to get our minds off the reality of the situation. As such, we tried to have some fun with a bet we’d risk that check on.
Connor O’Gara, Senior national columnist
I’ll take Auburn’s under on 8.5 wins at +175. If my horrible math is correct, that means an 8-4 season would net me $2,100 if I dropped my $1,200 on that. Considering how brutal that schedule is, I’m more confident in that now than I was before all of this went down. I don’t have much faith in Chad Morris and his desire to throw the ball with Bo Nix with that retooled offensive line.
And defensively, Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson were 2 of the program’s top players of the 21st century. They made life so much easier for everyone else. Kevin Steele always figures it out, but I’m not sure they can be asked to do as much heavy lifting as they did last year.
This comes down to the schedule. I have road games at Alabama and at Georgia penciled in as losses. Somewhere between these 6 games, I’d need 2 losses — vs. UNC (in Atlanta), at Ole Miss, vs. Kentucky, vs. Texas A&M, at Mississippi State and vs. LSU. I think that’s perfectly realistic.
Chris Marler, The SDS Podcast co-host
I’ll give you several because I’m a degenerate gambler, or “dedicated” as I tell my fiance.
The two best future bets, in my opinion, are in the ACC.
1. Georgia Tech over 2.5 regular-season wins. They won 3 last year and that was with a loss to The Citadel. I love what Geoff Collins is doing in Atlanta and they will win at least 3 games.
2. Clemson making the CFP at -200. I don’t like Dabo, but he is a great coach with a loaded roster and a schedule most SEC schools would salivate at. Their schedule is more difficult this year with a road game to South Bend, but all of their other “difficult” games like South Carolina, Virginia and Louisville are all at home. Regardless of their SOS, this is one of the most loaded rosters we’ve seen in college football in maybe the past 5 years, they have a lot of veteran leadership and they’re also pissed.
If I had to give a lock from the SEC it would be for a single game.
3. UGA over Auburn. The line is UGA -4.5, but bet the money line and thank me later.
Last season I went on-air in July with McElroy and Kanell saying the lock of the year was UGA -3 vs Florida. I feel the same confidence this offseason in backing the Dawgs.
Honestly, there are 3 UGA games I originally circled and all seem like great bets: -4.5 vs Auburn, -2.5 vs Florida, and +7 @ Bama. I’d buy the hook at Bama and bet the money line for the Florida game for extra insurance. However, if you want something surefire, take them at home vs. Auburn, which loses around 13-14 starters from last year’s team, including the entire secondary and 4 of 5 from the OL.
Michael Bratton, News editor
Georgia is currently listed as a 7-point underdog (-115) at Alabama on Sept. 19.
I’ve got the Bulldogs winning that game outright, so I’ll take those points all day even with the odds not entirely in my favor. Alabama’s offense without Tua Tagovailoa, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs and both starting tackles from last season won’t be able to score very many points on this Georgia defense.
Even if Georgia’s overhauled offense isn’t up to speed this quickly in the season, they’ll manage to win this game outright in a defensive struggle.
If Georgia’s offense is up to speed this early, look for the Bulldogs to do what the Crimson Tide did to them back in 2015 — the Bulldogs crush the Tide and this will be the day everyone declares the Saban-Alabama dynasty officially dead.
Adam Spencer, Newsletter editor
It’s not something that will make me rich, but I’m sitting here looking at Clemson’s odds to make the 2021 College Football Playoff on BetOnline. Currently, the Tigers are the favorites at -200 to make the field of 4. Again, that’s just to make the Playoff field! Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Justyn Ross … I mean, come on. And they play in the weak ACC, too! No one in that conference is going to come close to Clemson this season. (Seems like a good opportunity to bring up this tweet from Chris Marler again):
Dabo later asked what a “season” was since Clemson’s never starts until December anyways. https://t.co/TTJknGeBVp
— Saturday Down South (@SDS) April 3, 2020
What’s the stimulus check for? $1,200, right? Putting it all on Clemson to make the Playoff will only net me a profit of $600, but to me, that seems like it is basically free money. I’d rather have a grand total of $1,800 in my pocket than make a crazy bet like Cal going to the Playoff (+5000) and ending up with $0.
Chris Wright, Executive editor
Full disclaimer: I don’t gamble. I have more than enough adventure and daily risk/reward scenarios with 3 kids.
But for the sake of this hypothetical situation, here are 2 I like:
1. Clemson is returning to the Playoff. Whatever those odds are, take it.
2. I think LSU is going to win 8 or 9 games, which would be lower than the 9.5 projection from BetOnline.com.
In theory and for entertainment purposes only, I’d bet the under on that. LSU’s schedule, combined with the personnel losses, all scream 8-4 if the Tigers lose in Week 2 to Texas. As I look at the 2020 Tigers, I keep going back to this: They won 3 regular-season games by 1 score last year, and every time, Joe Burrow saved the day. They play those same 3 teams again in 2020. To expect Myles Brennan to save the day, or throw for 30 TDs seems wildly optimistic and borderline unfair.