Close your eyes and think about something.

It’s the first Sunday in December. The hay is in the barn. You’re set to flip on ESPN for the announcement of the four College Football Playoff teams, knowing that you’re about to see something happen for the first time — the SEC isn’t making field.

Now open your eyes back to reality. By reality, I mean the world in which the SEC and ACC are the only conferences to have had Playoff representatives in each year. You know, the reality that most recently saw two SEC teams play for a national title while no other conference has put two teams in the same field yet.

It’s strange to think about a reality in which the SEC gets left out of the field. Essentially, the SEC would go into the conference championship weekend much like the Pac-12 did last year without any hope of making the field. Or, it could go into it like the Big Ten did knowing that there was a scenario in which it could get left out for the first time.

As strong as the SEC has been at the top during the Playoff era, there are actually a few ways in which the conference misses out. For all we know, 2018 could be the first time in which the SEC Championship is not essentially a de-facto Playoff quarterfinal for the winner.

So how does that happen? Let me explain.

Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The nonconference dud

Last year, there was something that absolutely crushed the Big Ten’s Playoff hopes besides Ohio State’s debacle in Iowa City. It was the nonconference egg that the conference laid. Remember how few quality nonconference wins the Big Ten contenders had?

This was every Big Ten contender’s best nonconference win:

  • Ohio State — vs. Army
  • Penn State — vs. Pitt
  • Michigan State — vs. Western Michigan
  • Michigan — vs. Florida (in Arlington)
  • Wisconsin — vs. FAU

None of those teams spent a single post-September week in the Top 25. You know which Big Ten nonconference opponents did? Oklahoma, but Ohio State got trucked at home in that matchup. Notre Dame was also a Top-25 staple, but Michigan State turned over any chance at winning that one. The other 3 Big Ten contenders just didn’t beat any Power 5 teams that carried any weight.

The selection committee recognized that. That’s a huge reason it felt like the conference had an uphill climb all year.

The same thing could theoretically happen to the SEC. These are the top nonconference games for each potential SEC contender:

  • LSU — vs. Miami (in Arlington)
  • Georgia — vs. Georgia Tech
  • Alabama — vs. Louisville (in Orlando)
  • Auburn — vs. Washington (in Atlanta)
  • Mississippi State — at Kansas State

Hypothetically speaking, let’s say that Alabama and Georgia win their nonconference games and the other 3 are all losses. That’s the most realistic doomsday scenario for the SEC considering those 3 matchups will likely have a 1-score spread. Sorry, but I’m not holding my breath on Georgia Tech or Louisville to be considered quality wins, especially since neither are road games.

We all remember how Alabama’s Florida State win lessened as the year grew on. The same could easily happen for that Louisville game.

Basically, if the SEC is sitting there in late November without a win vs. a current Top 25 team in nonconference play, that’s not good. That’s exactly what the Big Ten did last year.

We saw how that turned out.

The SEC East wild card scenario

It’s funny to think about now, but in the first 3 years of the Playoff system, there was a unique angle of the SEC Championship. Had the SEC East representative won, the conference would have been left out of the title game. There was no way that 2014 Mizzou, 2015 Florida or 2016 Florida was making the field even with a win against Alabama.

OK, let’s actually take 2016 Florida off that list. Alabama was undefeated heading into the SEC Championship — nobody else in the field was unbeaten — so it had a loss to give.

But the point remains.

A weak East representative winning the conference crown would be a potential doomsday scenario. And while 2017 Georgia was the first East winner without multiple losses heading into the conference title game, I’m not convinced that a 1-loss Georgia team would be in a “win-and-in” scenario. The preseason outlook on the Dawgs’ schedule isn’t pretty. I already outlined why it would be in a Wisconsin-like situation with the selection committee.

There’s also the possibility that a team like South Carolina surprises everyone and beats Georgia en route to an East crown. If the Gamecocks beat Georgia and Clemson, nobody will be calling them a “weak East representative.” They could have 2 losses and be viewed like 2017 Auburn was. But I’m not holding my breath on that, either.

The conference’s best chance to avoid this scenario is obviously if Georgia makes it to Atlanta without a blemish and it faces a 1-loss/undefeated West winner. Still, there are plenty of scenarios in which an East squad can reach Atlanta and find itself a win away from ruining the conference’s Playoff streak.

The West repeats itself, but with a twist

When 1-loss Alabama didn’t make the conference title game and 2-loss Auburn did, the Tigers were still in the Playoff hunt because they had two wins vs. the then-No. 1 team in America. What if that happened again, but a 2-loss West team just didn’t have those monster marquee wins?

Sure, beating Alabama is huge. There’s no greater win to the Playoff selection committee than knocking off the Tide. The West runs through Alabama until further notice, so let’s assume that any non-Alabama representative has to do just that.

Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

But a 2-loss West champ can lack that other big-time win. Keep in mind that a 2-loss team still hasn’t made the field, and the only realistic candidate had to beat two top-ranked teams in November. In other words, it’s still extremely difficult.

I’d still say there’s a chance that a team like Auburn or Mississippi State could lose their marquee nonconference game and lose to LSU, then beat Alabama to win the division. On the surface, that West team could be on the outside looking in whether it wins an SEC Championship or not.

Is that likely? Probably not, but it wouldn’t be stunning if a pair of likely preseason top-15 teams followed that formula.

The crazy theory I have

I didn’t think “privileged” was the right word to describe Alabama’s Playoff history. I don’t, however, think Tim Brando was alone in thinking that. To be clear, he applied that thinking to Clemson and Ohio State, as well. Not surprisingly, those are the only three teams that have titles in the Playoff era.

I have a theory, and it’s not one that Alabama fans will care for. My theory is that a 1-loss Alabama doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt this time, and that’s the result of the selection committee’s desire to distance itself from the perceived “Tide bias.”

Remember that Alabama’s schedule could easily wind up being its weakest of the Playoff era. Unless a post-Lamar Jackson Louisville squad shoots past some extremely mediocre preseason expectations, the Tide will lack a quality nonconference win. Crossover draws against Mizzou and Tennessee won’t exactly move the needle, which means there’s a realistic chance that Alabama only gets a few chances at legitimate Top 25 wins.

Hmmmm, sounds a whole lot like 2017. So how could a 1-loss Alabama team that wins the SEC get left out while last year’s 1-loss Alabama team made the Playoff? My theory — end any possible notion of a Tide bias. The selection committee keeps 1-loss Alabama outside of the top 6 following that first loss, and it can’t make up the ground against a non-Georgia East team in the SEC Championship.

Certainly nobody would argue that there’s a Tide bias if Alabama became the first 1-loss Power 5 conference champ to miss out on the Playoff.

Can that happen? Maybe that reality could exist.

Or maybe I’ve just spent too much offseason time enjoying the Florida sun.