Breaking down the weekend’s final SEC slate, all in one place.

Game of the Week: Alabama (-14.5) at Auburn

The stakes: The Iron Bowl! Where is the juice?

It’s been a minute since one of the game’s most venerated rivalries felt like more than a routine coronation for the Crimson Tide. This year’s edition marks the 10-year anniversary of the Kick-6 — Auburn is honoring the 2013 SEC championship team on Saturday — with little in the way of high-stakes drama to show for the intervening decade. The Tigers haven’t kicked off the season finale as a ranked team since 2019, or with a shot at winning the SEC West since 2017.

The games on The Plains often entertain, with 5 of Alabama’s 8 trips to Jordan-Hare in the Nick Saban era decided by single digits. (Recall that Bama narrowly survived its last trip, in 2021, after 4 overtimes, and lost 4 of the previous 4 prior to that one.) But they have rarely felt big, with high stakes on both sides. As eternal blood feuds go, there’s nowhere near the heat coming off this one these days as the annual winner-take-all Armageddon that is Michigan-Ohio State.

This year, as always, Alabama has held up its end of the bargain, rolling into Jordan-Hare on a 10-game winning streak that somehow feels both unlikely and inevitable. While nowhere near Saban’s most imposing team, the ’23 Tide have taken care of their business, winning ugly over the first half of the season and significantly improving on offense as the year has worn on. They’ve already clinched the West with a perfect conference record, setting up an SEC Championship collision with Georgia that, barring a major upset on Saturday, will arrive with all the usual implications. Week by week, the initial panic that followed their Week 2 loss to Texas looks a little more ridiculous in hindsight.

Auburn had no such expectations, or any expectations at all, really, under first-year coach Hugh Freeze. Prior to last week the Tigers were picking up a little steam, winning 3 straight over Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Arkansas to secure bowl eligibility. But whatever wind they had in their sails disappeared in Week 12, in a 31-10 loss to New Mexico State that reset the momentum meter to zero. The reality was every bit as deflating as the score implied, with NMSU outgaining Auburn by 200 yards and racking up an 18-minute advantage in time of possession. After that, “playing for pride” takes on a whole new meaning.

The stat: 54.7%

That’s Jalen Milroe‘s completion percentage on attempts traveling 20+ yards downfield, per Pro Football Focus, 3rd-best nationally behind LSU’s Jayden Daniels (64.7%) and Michigan’s JJ McCarthy (57.1%). It also represents a notable improvement over Alabama’s downfield efficiency in 2021-22 with the ball in the hands of Bryce Young:

At this early stage of his career, Milroe is not yet a full-service passer who is effective throwing to all areas of the field. In fact, he’s one of PFF’s lowest-graded passers on intermediate attempts (10-19 yards), with an SEC-low 55.1 grade in that category. On deep throws, on the other hand, he’s one of the nation’s best, boasting a 97.7 grade — 2nd nationally only to Daniels — while launching nearly 25% of his total attempts beyond 20 air yards, easily the highest rate in the conference. That’s a marked difference from the pro-style approach Alabama has taken for most of the past decade, which emphasized yards after catch over gunning it downfield. Whereas only 22.1% of Young’s passing output as a starter came on attempts of 20+ yards, for Milroe that number is a staggering 47.2%.

The big question: Can Auburn run the damn ball?

The Tigers’ issues in the passing game are well-documented: They’re averaging just 162.1 yards per game through the air, last in the SEC and 121st nationally. That’s Big Ten West territory. At their best, though, the ground game has been productive and occasionally dominant.

As a team, Auburn has run for 200+ yards on at least 5.0 per carry in 4 of its 6 wins, as well as in a competitive, 27-20 loss to Georgia in Week 5. (Although it is worth noting that that number against the Dawgs was bolstered by a 61-yard run by QB Payton Thorne, an outlier to say the least.) Individually, junior Jarquez Hunter has true workhorse potential; over a 4-game stretch from Weeks 8-11, he racked up 527 yards on 7.9 per carry, more than two-thirds of it coming after contact, per PFF.

That’s an all-too-familiar sight for Alabama’s defense, against whom Hunter ran for 134 yards on 12.2 per carry last year in a historic performance in Tuscaloosa. Altogether, Auburn gashed the Tide for 318 yards on the ground in a 49-27 loss, the best rushing total against a Bama defense in Saban’s tenure. (For context, in the Kick-6 game in 2013 Auburn ran for a stunning-at-the-time 296 yards.) The Tigers also got 121 yards and 2 TDs rushing in last year’s meeting from QB Robby Ashford, who still has a role as a change-of-pace option behind Thorne.

All of that said, all of it also has to be taken with a grain of salt coming off a dismal rushing effort against New Mexico State, which yielded just 65 yards on 2.5 per carry. Alabama’s front seven is not nearly as impenetrable against the run in the spread era as it once was, but it is certainly sturdy enough to hold up against an attack that was soundly whipped at the line of scrimmage its last time out by a Conference USA tomato can. There is very little reason for Bama’s secondary to respect Thorne’s arm; if Auburn’s o-line struggles to open up running lanes, it’s going to be a long, cold afternoon.

The key matchup: Alabama OT Kadyn Proctor vs. Auburn edge Jalen McLeod

Proctor, the highest-rated tackle in the 2023 recruiting class, was touted as the next in a long line of NFL-bound behemoths to man the blindside on Saban’s watch, and in time he might be. As a freshman, though, he’s had a rough introduction to the college game. A Day 1 starter at left tackle, he’s been singled out by PFF for allowing 29 pressures and 10 sacks, tied for the most of any individual lineman in the country. For now, you can often find him on the wrong side of somebody else’s highlight reel.

McLeod, a transfer from James Madison, is not built like a prototypical SEC pass rusher at 6-1, 237 pounds, but he has been the Tigers’ most productive player off the edge, generating a team-high 32 QB pressures and 6 sacks this season, per PFF. In terms of sheer bulk, he routinely gives up 100 pounds or more against opposing tackles — Proctor is listed at 6-7, 360 — a less-than-ideal situation against the run. But on obvious passing downs, McLeod’s speed around the corner is liable to leave the big men grasping for air.

The verdict …

Slowly but surely, Alabama has survived long enough to round into fighting shape as the postseason approaches. Auburn is a wild card. The Tigers briefly looked like a team capable of making things interesting, right up until they got caught with their pants all the way down against a 24-point underdog. What has to happen to conceivably pull off that kind of turnaround in consecutive weeks? Do they have another 300-yard rushing day up their sleeve? Can they rely on Thorne for more than a couple of timely throws, at best? Does Hugh Freeze have some Saban-slaying magic left over from his back-to-back wins over Bama as head coach at Ole Miss? (He’s trying to become just the 8th coach to beat Saban at least 3 times.) Unless the answer to all 3 of those questions is a very surprising yes, the Tide can safely set their sights on Georgia.
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• Alabama 37 | Auburn 17

Ole Miss (-10.5) at Mississippi State (7:30 pm, ET, Thursday)

The Egg Bowl has a well-deserved reputation as one of the most unpredictable and evenly matched rivalries going: The past 20 meetings have produced an even split, 10 to 10, with a cumulative score of Rebels 475, Bulldogs 468 — a difference of a single touchdown over two decades. (The past 10 meetings are also an even split, 5 to 5.) Three of the past four have been decided by single digits, including the infamous 2019 game that ultimately cost both head coaches their jobs for reasons too bizarre to recount. It has always been heated, and it has often been strange.

So the fact that Ole Miss arrives with a 9-2 record and relatively lofty rankings in the polls, opposite a nondescript Mississippi State outfit with an interim head coach and a 1-6 mark in SEC play, doesn’t necessarily count for much on Thursday night, especially in Starkville. Half of the Bulldogs’ losses came in the absence of their most valuable players on offense, QB Will Rogers and RB Jo’Quavious Marks, both of whom returned last week against Southern Miss and represent a significant upgrade to an attack that sunk to the bottom of the conference rankings in their absence. It’s not clear whether either will be back next year under a new coaching staff, but if it is their last game in cowbell country, you can be sure they’re not going out quietly.
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Ole Miss 31 | • Mississippi State 23

Missouri (-8.5) at Arkansas (4 pm, ET, Friday)

Arkansas’ announcement that Sam Pittman will be back in 2024 neutralized one of the major undercurrents of this matchup, but there are plenty more: Missouri’s bid to clinch a spot in a New Year’s 6 bowl; KJ Jefferson‘s future following what may or may not be his last game as a Razorback; Harrison Mevis‘ whole gestalt. As for me, I’ll be tuning in Friday to watch Luther Burden III, because time flies, life is short, and opportunities to appreciate a talent like Burden’s in a college uniform are fleeting. Sometimes it’s good to remember all the other stuff is just the dressing, not the main course.
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• Missouri 34 | Arkansas 24

Florida State (-6.5) at Florida

The complexion of this matchup scrambled last week with season-ending injuries to both starting quarterbacks. But with all due respect to Florida’s Graham Mertz, losing Jordan Travis is an immensely bigger loss for the Seminoles. Travis, a 6th-year vet with 38 career starts and 97 total touchdowns under his belt, is one of the most experienced and dynamic players in the country. With him, Florida State is a serious Playoff contender on a 17-game winning streak, over which it has averaged 40.8 points per game. Without him, TBD.

Travis’ understudy, redshirt junior Tate Rodemaker, just got his first taste of meaningful action off the bench against North Alabama. His 2nd career start — he started 1 game as a true freshman against Jacksonville State in 2020 — will come on the road, in a rivalry game, with his team’s unbeaten record and Playoff hopes hanging in the balance.

FSU fans are dealing with a serious bout of Marcus Outzen nostalgia, for better and worse. “The Rooster” did, after all, lead the Noles past Florida and into the inaugural BCS title game in 1998 after replacing an injured Chris Weinke the previous week. But he needed a herculean effort from the defense to do it, and he never really gave them a chance to win the big one once they got there. If Rodemaker passes his first test, he’ll also face an additional hurdle that Outzen didn’t in next week’s ACC Championship Game, against Louisville. The more optimistic comparison, to Ohio State’s Cardale Jones during the Buckeyes’ 2014 title run, is … well, optimistic. At least until we see more.

At any rate, Rodemaker is now one of the leading characters in the unfolding Playoff drama. In a chaos scenario, the prospect of an undefeated Florida State minus its most valuable player is the CFP committee’s worst nightmare. If they pull it off, the 13-0 champions of a Power 5 league with nonconference wins over LSU and Florida obviously cannot be denied, over a key injury or anything else. Still, if it comes down to taking a compromised version of the Noles over a 12-1 conference champ with a better chance of actually winning a Playoff game, it’s going to be a bitter pill. In the meantime, Rodemaker’s performance can make the final call easier to swallow — one way or the other.
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Florida State 24 | • Florida 19

Texas A&M at LSU (-11.5)

LSU is a long shot for a New Year’s 6 bowl and A&M’s focus is squarely on its next head coach. The only thing that really matters in this one is Jayden Daniels‘ stat line. Daniels’ campaign is already one of the most prolific in SEC history, to the extent that his Heisman stock has only gone up since he was knocked out of the Tigers’ Week 10 loss at Alabama. Even with 3 losses in his team’s 3 biggest games, he enters the final weekend of the regular season as the tentative favorite to win the Heisman the betting market. Saturday, opposite the SEC’s No. 1 total defense, is his last chance to assert himself in what’s shaping up as a razor-thin race.

Daniels’ closing argument is critical, because among the leading contenders he’s the only one who’s already out of the running to play his conference championship game next week. Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. is already guaranteed an appearance in the Pac-12 title game; Oregon’s Bo Nix can punch his ticket Friday with a win over Oregon State, setting up a head-to-head, winner-take-all showdown in Vegas with the Heisman and a Playoff slot at stake. Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. has the stage this weekend in front of a colossal TV audience for the Buckeyes’ trip to Michigan, overshadowing LSU-A&M in the same time slot; big games against the Wolverines and Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game could still tip the ballots in Harrison’s favor.

Daniels has just the one shot against the Aggies, in a game the vast majority of voters will grok strictly via highlights and the scrolling ticker while glued to OSU-Michigan. Whatever number Fox winds up pulling for that game, Daniels needs to put up one even bigger.
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• LSU 38 | Texas A&M 24

Georgia (-24.5) at Georgia Tech

Are we entertaining the possibility of an historic upset in Atlanta? We are not — not this week, anyway. To its credit, though, this might be the best Georgia Tech team since the last one that managed to beat Georgia, back in Kirby Smart‘s first season on the job in 2016. Under first-year head coach Brent Key, the Jackets (6-5) are bowl-eligible and just wrapped up their first winning record in ACC play in 5 years. Quarterback Haynes King, a reclamation project from Texas A&M, ranks 2nd in the ACC in total offense behind only North Carolina’s Drake Maye. It hasn’t been a straight line — there was a midseason stretch where they alternated wins over Miami and UNC with losses to Bowling Green and Boston College — but it is safe to say the “post-triple option culture shock” era is finally in the rearview.

For Georgia, of course, the mandate in this game is always the same: Go home with everyone’s ACLs intact. The Dawgs should have no problem putting up a big enough number on offense to get the starters out early, and they shouldn’t have to lean too heavily on Carson Beck‘s arm to do it. Georgia Tech ranks 131st in rushing defense, dead last in the Power 5.
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• Georgia 41 | Georgia Tech 13

Kentucky at Louisville (-6.5)

Not much has gone right lately for the Wildcats, losers of 5-of-6 following a 5-0 start. But this might be one of those rare moments when taking the air of your biggest rival’s season really is satisfying enough to salvage your own.

Louisville (10-1) has been one of the nation’s most charmed teams under first-year head coach Jeff Brohm, going 5-0 in 1-score games and clinching its first appearance in the ACC Championship Game. The Cardinals are balanced, boasting the nation’s 22nd-ranked total offense opposite a defense that ranks 21st, and experienced, led by upperclassmen across the board. For this time of year, they’re also relatively healthy, pending the status of leading rusher Jawhar Jordan‘s hamstring. A random, 38-21 flop at Pitt in Week 7 is all that’s standing between them and a perfect record.

The Governor’s Cup, however, resides in Lexington until further notice. Kentucky has won 4 straight in the series by an average margin of 30.5 points per game. You can see that number reflected in the 6.5-point spread for Saturday, an otherwise suspiciously thin line for a a top-10 team playing at home against an opponent whose only win since September came at the expense of an injury-ravaged version of Mississippi State. That’s a “throw out the records” line if ever there was one. The Brohm Project is not a complete success until he ends the in-state schneid.
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Louisville 26 | • Kentucky 20

Clemson (-7) at South Carolina

Both sides are feeling better than their respective records would suggest after pulling out of a midseason nosedive. On Halloween, Clemson was 4-4, already out of the running in the ACC, and forcing Dabo Swinney to defend himself against hecklers on his weekly call-in show. Across the state, South Carolina was faring even worse, suffering through a 2-6 start that drained every ounce of goodwill from a strong finish in 2022. Fast-forward to Thanksgiving: The Tigers are back in the Top 25 with dignity-salvaging wins over Notre Dame and North Carolina, while the Gamecocks have taken 3 straight to preserve a shot at bowl eligibility. Since the clocks turned, they’re a combined 6-0.

Speaking of clocks: This is a primetime affair in Columbia, which is fast becoming the SEC’s answer to the Bermuda Triangle. Under Shane Beamer, South Carolina is 11-2 in home games that kicked off at 7 pm ET or later – the majority of those wins coming in upsets – compared to 9-15 in all other games, home or away. Williams-Brice After Dark is a legitimately hostile environment. But then, since Dabo’s tête-à-tête with Tyler from Spartanburg, Clemson is back to looking like a legitimately hostile opponent. It’s all vibes, but in a game with nothing much else at stake what else can you ask for?
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• Clemson 30 | South Carolina 21

Vanderbilt at Tennessee (-27.5)

It was only 5 years ago that Vanderbilt was putting the finishing touches on a 3-game winning streak against Tennessee, but it may as well be from the era of black-and-white newsreels. In the 5 seasons since, the Commodores are 3-37 in SEC play with 3 winless seasons (including the current one) against the conference slate. Each loss in their ongoing, 9-game losing streak this season has been a little more demoralizing than the one before it, culminating in a 47-6 laugher at South Carolina their last time out that will go down in Vandy legend as the “gave us a chance to punt” game. Clark Lea was widely considered to be exempt from the hot seat after signing a contract extension over the summer, but the project has regressed badly enough in Year 3 that an ugly enough margin Saturday could leave his boss feeling like she has no choice.

Tennessee’s problems fall a little higher on the food chain by comparison, not that that makes them feel any less urgent. The Vols failed to capitalize on last year’s breakthrough, going 0-4 in their 4 biggest games of the season against Florida, Alabama, Missouri and Georgia — all of them decided by double digits. Much of the frustration for the regression has been laid at the feet of QB Joe Milton III, who never quite got off the runway in his first and only season as the starter; instead, he’s coming off arguably his 2 worst games against UGA and Mizzou with the division on the line. Milton remains the starter, but a significant faction of the fan base is ready to turn the page to heir apparent Nico Iamalavea, even if it means burning his redshirt. Given the near-certainty of garbage time on Saturday, the only question is how early the freshman comes off the bench.
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• Tennessee 45 | Vanderbilt 10

Scoreboard

Week 12 record: 9-1 straight-up | 6-3 vs. spread
Season record: 67-15 straight-up | 41-39-1 vs. spread