Breaking down the weekend’s SEC slate, all in one place.

Game of the Week: Georgia (-10.5) at Tennessee

The stakes

For Georgia, of course, the stakes are always the same: Championship or bust.

With the postseason on the horizon, the bid for a 3-peat is right on schedule. Last week’s 52-17 beatdown of Ole Miss extended all the relevant streaks — 27 straight overall, 25 straight at home, 37 straight in the regular season, 22 consecutive weeks atop the AP poll — in emphatic fashion, against the highest-ranked opponent UGA has faced to date. Even the Playoff committee, which prior to this week had relegated Georgia No. 2 in its weekly Top 25 for lack of a marquee win, was duly impressed enough to bump the Dogs up to No. 1, as if there was ever any doubt that’s where they were bound to wind up.

The defending champs had their fair share of slow starts, ugly wins, and injuries over the first two-thirds of the season. Since the calendar turned to November, they’ve looked like themselves.

A trip to Knoxville does give Georgia the opportunity to check one last box before turning its attention to the looming SEC Championship collision with Alabama: A big road win. (Sorry, not sorry to Georgia Tech for skipping the prospect of an upset in next week’s rivalry match in Atlanta. Just, no.) The Bulldogs’ only true road dates have come at Auburn and Vanderbilt, their 2 sleepiest outings of the season.

Neyland Stadium is no place to get caught nodding: Tennessee has a 14-game winning streak of its own on its home turf, dating to a November 2021 loss to … Georgia. But the 2023 Dawgs, and quarterback Carson Beck, specifically, have not yet faced as good an opponent as the Vols in as hostile an environment.

Anyway, just how good are the Vols? Good enough to make this a ranked matchup, at least, coming in at No. 18 in the CFP rankings and No. 21 per the AP. Good enough to keep it interesting for four quarters? TBD. At 7-3, Tennessee has not come close to holding up its end of the deal to make Saturday’s game a reprise of last year’s winner-take-all showdown in Athens, when both teams arrived undefeated and ranked No. 1 in one of the major polls. Tennessee is out of the running in the SEC East, and presumably for a New Year’s 6 bowl, with all 3 losses (at Florida, Alabama and Missouri) coming by double digits. Last week’s 36-7 flop at Mizzou was an eye-opener in all the wrong ways, clearly ceding the silver medal in the East to the Tigers.

That leaves one big goal on the table: Ambush Georgia amid a sea of orange. This time of year, many stranger things have happened. Just, you know, not to Georgia.

The stat: 15.9%

That’s Georgia RB Daijun Edwards‘ share of the Dawgs’ total offense this season, the highest individual share on the team and the lowest individual share of any team leader in the SEC:

As always, no offense spreads the wealth as liberally as Georgia’s. In that regard, first-year offensive coordinator Mike Bobo has picked up right where his predecessor, Todd Monken, left off, overseeing a wildly productive attack with no true headliner, whose skill personnel is largely interchangeable. The Bulldogs rank 5th nationally in total offense and 6th in scoring without a single player who ranks in the top 10 in the SEC in yards from scrimmage, and only 1 who ranks in the top 25. (Edwards is 13th.)

Tight end Brock Bowers is easily the team’s leading receiver despite missing 2 full games, but the top 4 wideouts (Dominic Lovett, Ladd McConkey, Marcus Rosemary-Jacksaint and RaRa Thomas) have all accounted for between 365 and 475 yards with 2 touchdowns apiece. Bowers is always there when they need him, but the rest of the distribution is designed to ensure they very rarely will.

The big question: Is Joe Milton III beyond repair?

It was apparent early on that Milton, military-grade arm strength notwithstanding, was not going to replicate Hendon Hooker’s 2022 Heisman run. Milton ranks squarely in the middle of the pack among SEC starters in both pass efficiency and Total QBR, and doesn’t have a single game this season with 300 yards or 3 touchdowns through the air. Gifted as he may be, on paper his profile is that of a “game manager,” through and through.

If he never quite won over a fan base with a renewed sense of expectations, though, the loss at Missouri might have been the moment Milton lost them. For starters, there was the point total itself, the lowest of Josh Heupel‘s career as a head coach. (Or as a player, for that matter.) Then came the turnovers — back-to-back giveaways in the 4th quarter that cemented both the defeat and Milton’s status as the resident goat (not the good kind):

The advantage of starting a 6th-year quarterback is supposed to be that he’s not baited into those kinds of throws, especially after getting away with a nearly identical throw earlier in the game that fell incomplete. Combined with the strip sack that effectively ended the Vols’ comeback attempt against Alabama, Milton’s lowest moments have all come in moments when Tennessee most desperately needed him to make a play. The plays he has made have not been nearly as memorable, and there haven’t been nearly enough of them against the top half of the schedule.

But: That arm. Although Milton has been ordinary throwing the ball downfield — in fact, per Pro Football Focus he’s the SEC’s lowest-graded passer on attempts of 20+ yards, having completed just 28.6% of them — his potential to change a game with a single flick of the wrist remains his most unique and compelling asset.

Georgia has faced more consistent passers the past 3 weeks in Florida’s Graham Mertz, Missouri’s Brady Cook and Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart, but never had to worry about their potential to wreck the Bulldogs’ season from 60 yards out. If Milton can finally live up to his bombs-away reputation, even for a couple of plays, he has a chance to rewrite his chapter in Tennessee history. Otherwise, most of the locals are ready to turn the page to the heir apparent, 5-star freshman Nico Iamalavea.

The key matchup: Georgia OT Amarius Mims vs. Tennessee edge James Pearce Jr.

Mims is a 6-7, 340-pound specimen who has had “future first-rounder” written all over him from the moment he set foot on campus. For a 3rd-year player, he just hasn’t had that many opportunities to set foot on the field. After serving as a backup in 2021-22, his promotion to starting right tackle this year was interrupted by an ankle injury that sidelined him for half the regular season. Against Ole Miss, Mims came off the bench for the first time since Week 3, sharing snaps at RT with converted guard Xavier Truss; finally at full strength, Georgia’s o-line as a whole was dominant, paving the way for 300 yards rushing while allowing a single QB pressure on 28 drop-backs, per PFF.

This week, Mims and Truss both are listed as co-starters on the official depth chart, with Truss listed first, for whatever that’s worth. But as soon as Mims is in every-down shape, it’s his position, and he should be in line for the majority of the reps Saturday.

A significant number of those reps will come opposite Pearce, whose soaring stock over the first half of the season has cooled off a bit over the past month. Through the first 6 games, PFF credited Pearce with 33 QB pressures and 7 sacks, most of them coming in a couple of reputation-making performances against South Carolina and Texas A&M. Over the past 4 games, he’s been credited with just 7 QB pressures and 2 sacks, and his first career start against Missouri yielded his worst grades of the season.

As a pass rusher, Pearce has both the speed to blow past bigger tackles and the strength to put less technically sound tackles on skates. Many of his highlights, though (including the ones in the preceding links) have come at the expense of true freshmen and 3-star types who’ll never sniff the next level. Mims, by contrast, is a mountain of a man with 3 years under his belt in Athens and NFL-ready athleticism. There’s no going through him, and getting around him will require an exhibition of legitimate Day-1 juice. If Pearce has it, now’s the time to leave no doubt.

The verdict …

Georgia’s tendency to look a little sluggish out of the gate is real: The defense has allowed a touchdown on the opening series 5 times in 7 SEC games, including each of the past 4. Last week, Ole Miss hit paydirt on 2 of its first 3 possessions. Once the squeeze is on, though, it’s as relentless as ever. In last year’s meeting in Athens, Tennessee’s offense was throttled to a fraction of its usual production, and that attack was significantly more prolific than the one that will take the field on Saturday. Homefield advantage counts for something, but not enough to close that gap.
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• Georgia 34 | Tennessee 21

Florida at Missouri (-11.5)

Mizzou’s season-affirming win over Tennessee has the Tigers thinking New Year’s 6 bowl, with good reason. They landed at No. 9 on the CFP committee’s weekly Top 25, just 1 spot behind Alabama and 4 spots ahead of Ole Miss — all but assuring that, with wins over Florida and Arkansas to finish 10-2, they’re due to finish no worse than third in the conference pecking order. Take care of business, and essentially the same team that ended last season as an underdog in the Gasparilla Bowl should be bound for the Peach or Cotton.

Meanwhile, Florida is staring down the abyss. The Gators entered their open date in Week 8 at an uneasy but respectable 5-2; since, they’re 0-3, with the defense crashing through a new floor each week. To some extent, Florida’s ball-control mentality on offense has succeeded in masking just how flammable the defense has been by keeping it off the field; only 3 defenses nationally (Michigan, Air Force, and Penn State) have faced fewer plays per game. On a per-play basis, though, coordinator Austin Armstrong‘s unit has been about as bad as it gets: In all games, the Gators rank last in the SEC and 129th nationally at 6.6 yards per play allowed; in SEC games, that number rises to 7.4 ypp, worst in the country in conference play. In last week’s 52-35 loss at LSU, the Tigers averaged an incredible 11.5 yards every time they snapped the ball.

Have they hit bottom? Missouri QB Brady Cook is no Jayden Daniels, but he is a viable dual-threat, and between RB Cody Schrader and WR Luther Burden III, Mizzou has the weapons to win on the ground or through the air. Florida has struggled on one count or the other in every game, and often both. It’s also struggled to force turnovers, generating a league-low 7 takeaways. If the Gators stand a chance of keeping the score within reach, they’ll need to add to that number, and probably tack on a 4th-down stop or two, as well. Otherwise, with undefeated Florida State on deck, a losing record looms large.
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Missouri 36 | • Florida 27

Kentucky (-1.5) at South Carolina

Cats/Cocks gets the primetime slot on the SEC Network, which is right in South Carolina’s wheelhouse. Williams-Brice Stadium after dark has earned a reputation as one of the league’s rowdier environments: Under Shane Beamer, Carolina is 10-2 in home games that kick off at 7 pm ET or later, compared to 9-15 in all other games. The hit list includes upsets in each of Beamer’s first 2 seasons over Florida (2021), Auburn (2021), Texas A&M (2022) and Tennessee (2022), as well as a 37-30 win over Mississippi State in its only primetime SEC game in Columbia this year. It also helps account for the razor-thin point spread against a 6-4 Kentucky outfit that would probably be favored by more in a different context.

Regardless of when and where the game kicks off, the Gamecocks’ fate hinges on keeping Spencer Rattler comfortable in the pocket, which they have typically failed to do in any of their 6 losses. Given time, Rattler and WR Xavier Legette are clearly a next-level combination, arguably matched in the SEC only by Jayden Daniels and his top-shelf wideouts at LSU. Under duress, as Rattler has often been, his game deteriorates fast. Kentucky under Mark Stoops has rarely been known for its pass rush, but if it doesn’t show up on Saturday the secondary is in for one its biggest tests.
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• South Carolina 26 | Kentucky 24

Georgia State at LSU (-31.5)

Georgia State has triggered the Upset Alert System on more than one occasion under coach Shawn Elliott, memorably knocking off Tennessee in the 2019 season opener and taking Auburn to the wire in 2021 — a game that, in retrospect, signaled the beginning of the end of the Bo Nix era on The Plains. As for the current team, the Panthers are bowl-bound but staggering to the finish line: A 6-1 start has yielded to a 3-game skid in Sun Belt play, all by lopsided margins. Jayden Daniels needs another radiant stat line to keep his name on the Heisman radar, and the nation’s 116th-ranked defense is just waiting to get lit up.
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• LSU 55 | Georgia State 17

UL-Monroe at Ole Miss (-37.5)

UL-Monroe got off on the right foot, upsetting Army in the season opener. It’s been downhill from there: 8 straight losses, representing the 2nd-longest active streak in the FBS. (Vanderbilt has lost 9 straight.) The Warhawks’ previous 4 games against Ole Miss this century have all resulted in grisly defeats by at least 28 points apiece. There’s no reason to expect any different this time around, or for Terry Bowden‘s tenure as ULM head coach to linger on much longer.
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• Ole Miss 51 | UL-Monroe 10

Southern Miss at Mississippi State (-14.5)

Mississippi State has spent most of the season in wildcard mode, so why stop now? The Bulldogs have lost 3 straight, just fired their head coach, and are still waiting on the status of their 2 best players on offense, QB Will Rogers and RB Jo’Quavious Marks, neither of whom has played in weeks. As hopeless as they’ve looked in the meantime, a reasonably motivated outfit with Rogers and Marks back in the fold should have no problem dispensing with the 6th-place team in the Sun Belt’s West Division. A flat team stuck with the same quarterback issues that have plagued the offense in Rogers’ absence, on the other hand, is not guaranteed to beat anybody.

For its part, Southern Miss has shown signs of life the past 3 weeks following a nationally televised, 55-3 humiliation at the hands of South Alabama, a performance that easily ranks among the worst in USM history. (Take it from an alum.) At 1-6, the Golden Eagles’ goose looked fully cooked. Instead, they responded with their 3 best outings of the season — a close loss at Appalachian State, followed by wins over UL-Monroe and Louisiana — possibly salvaging head coach Will Hall‘s job in the process. They’ve turned it around largely on the back of workhorse RB Frank Gore Jr., who has accounted for just shy of 600 scrimmage yards and 6 total touchdowns in the past 3. When Gore goes off, the Eagles have a shot. Otherwise, it’s going to be a long drive back to Hattiesburg.
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Mississippi State 31 | • Southern Miss 19

New Mexico State at Auburn (-23.5)

Historically, New Mexico State is a far-flung outpost where nothing ever seems to go right. Under second-year head coach Jerry Kill, however, the Aggies are flirting with respectability. In 2022, they rallied over the second half of the season to finish 7-6 with a win in the Quick Lane Bowl — a banner season by local standards, which Kill honored by way of a tastefully rendered tattoo.

Year 2 has gone even better: At 8-3, the Aggies have already won more games and clinched the best winning percentage of any NMSU outfit in more than a half-century, along with a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game in their first season in the league. Their current 6-game winning streak is the longest in Las Cruces since 1960. If the streak reaches 7 against Auburn, Kill automatically becomes governor under a long-dormant state law. (Don’t bother looking that last part up, New Mexico is a weird state.) Either way, Kill’s commemorative 2023 full sleeve tat is shaping up as an epic.
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• Auburn 41 | New Mexico State 16

Florida International at Arkansas (-29.5)

The first step in forecasting an Arkansas game these days is gauging the Razorbacks’ will to live. For most of the season, the Hogs have looked like they were ready to get it over with, losing 7 of their past 8 in increasingly depressing fashion. The lone exception, a 39-36 stunner at Florida in Week 10, was a glimpse at what might have been with better injury luck and a more inspired play-caller in charge of the offense. But the follow-up, a 48-10 dud against Auburn in a game the Razorbacks were slightly favored to win, was a case study of a team running on fumes.

If there’s anything left in the tank, Arkansas should be able to name its number against FIU, a nondescript outfit currently residing in last place in the post-realignment zombie wasteland version of Conference-USA. The Panthers haven’t faced a Power 5 opponent, but they have been outscored by a little more than 17 points per game in C-USA play. On the other hand, if last week’s no-show was any indication the worst-case scenario cannot be definitively ruled out.
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Arkansas 38 | • Fla. International 13

Chattanooga at Alabama (-44.5)

Chattanooga is coming off a tough loss in its biggest game of the year, a 17-14 decision against Furman that cost the Mocs the Southern Conference title and the automatic FCS playoff bid that comes with it. Instead, they’re sweating out an at-large selection process that most projections agree is likely to leave them out of the 24-team field. In the meantime, a leisurely trip down I-59 with nothing in particular on the line to close the regular season is a relatively low-stakes affair by comparison.
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• Alabama 52 | Chattanooga 6

Abilene Christian at Texas A&M (n/a)

A&M embarks on the post-Jimbo era with significantly more interest in gossiping over the Aggies’ next head coach than anything that plausibly happen on the field. The sooner the home crowd can safely file this one away in the win column, the sooner they can get back to the really important business at hand: Speculating how much it would take to land Dabo Swinney and who’s got it.
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Texas A&M 48 | Abilene Christian 9

Scoreboard

Week 11 record: 5-2 straight-up | 2-5 vs. spread
Season record: 58-14 straight-up | 35-36-1 vs. spread