Breaking down the weekend’s SEC slate, all in one place.

Game of the Week: Ole Miss at Georgia (-10.5)

The stakes

The biggest game in Ole Miss history? Some old-timers might take issue with that. As far as any game that anyone can actually remember, though, yeah, this one ranks right up there.

As big as the moment feels for the Rebels, it’s also precarious. At 8-1, the opportunities in front of them are plain enough: A milestone upset, a direct path to an 11-1 regular season, a legitimate presence in the national conversation as the Playoff race hits the home stretch — you know, all the things that make Ole Miss fans start to itch. They’ve been here before, after all, and it has rarely ended well. 2014, 2015, 2021: Close but no cigar. Don’t even get them started about 2003. The kids have scars, too. At the same point on the calendar last year, the Rebels carried an identical 8-1 record into the second Saturday in November, only to fumble it away over the course of a 4-game losing streak to end the season. Blowing the big chance to level up has been kinda their thing for a generation.

Transcending all of that against the reigning national champs would qualify as a genuine breakthrough. Ole Miss doesn’t control its own destiny in the SEC West standings (Alabama has all but wrapped up the division courtesy of the head-to-head tiebreaker), and even with a win in Athens its path to the Playoff hinges on assorted chaos scenarios and the scrutiny of the CFP committee. But then, aren’t the Rebels due for a little chaos to break their way for a change? A win on Saturday would unlock doors they’ve stood before in the past but never walked through. The Egg Bowl would arrive on Thanksgiving night with significantly more on the line than in-state bragging rights. QB Jaxson Dart could make a Manziel-like leap into the Heisman orbit. Lane Kiffin, who inherited a thoroughly nondescript outfit 4 years ago, would graduate from the “great offensive mind” phase of his career into the ranks of the league’s most respected head coaches, period.

Georgia, of course, lives to snuff out such fantasies. For the Bulldogs, it’s business as usual. Last week’s 30-21 win over Missouri — another dark horse aspiring to a statement win — extended their various winning streaks to 26 straight overall, 36 straight in the regular season and 25 straight in Athens. A win on Saturday would move them within 1 game of tying the longest streak in SEC history, due to fall in 3 weeks in the SEC Championship Game. Ole Miss, currently ranked 9th in the Playoff rankings, represents Georgia’s first top-10 opponent of the season, all but ruling out the possibility of an ambush. The Dawgs can see the Rebels coming as clearly as everyone else. The primetime crowd in Sanford Stadium will be amped for UGA’s final home game of the season. The only way to an upset is straight through.

The stat: 16.8%

That’s the percentage of Georgia QB Carson Beck‘s total drop-backs on which he’s faced pressure this season, per Pro Football Focus, the lowest rate in the SEC and 2nd-lowest among FBS passers, trailing only Oregon’s Bo Nix. For now, it’s also slightly better than Stetson Bennett IV’s FBS-best rate in 2022 (18.8%), only one of the many ways that Beck’s season to date looks a carbon copy of his predecessors’.

Ole Miss’ challenge is to significantly raise that number without leaving its vulnerable secondary even more vulnerable on the back end. Blitzing Beck hasn’t worked for other defenses, anyway: Auburn (57.1%), Florida (44.8%) and Missouri (59.5%) all sent extra rushers on at least 40% of his drop-backs, per PFF, while barely moving the needle in the final accounting. The good news for the Rebels is that the underrated edge-rushing rotation of Cedric Johnson, Jared Ivey, Isaac Ukwu and 5-star freshman Suntarine Perkins is the deepest that Georgia has faced to date, with a combined 77 pressures and 20 sacks to their credit. Perkins, in particular, has “rising star” written all over him, although exactly where he’ll be stationed in the long run is up for debate. Like LSU’s Harold Perkins Jr. (no relation), the 6-3, 205-pound Perkins is built more like a rocked-up safety than a true edge rusher, and has played some in a free-range linebacker/nickel role; also like Harold, at this fledgling stage of his career Suntarine is clearly at his best getting after the quarterback.

Meanwhile, Georgia’s effort to replace 2 draft picks at the tackle spots has been a work in progress. On the left side, true freshman Earnest Greene III has started every game with an intriguing blend of physically dominance leavened by inconsistency. On the right, aspiring first-rounder Amarius Mims has not played since Week 3 due to an ankle injury, forcing starting RG Xavier Truss to shift outside with mixed results. The bookends are not exactly “weak links,” as the general cleanliness of Beck’s uniform can attest. But Greene’s ongoing maturation and Mims’ pending return from injury — any week now, for at least the third week in a row — are both highly anticipated developments.

The big question: Can Ole Miss establish the run?

Predictably, the Rebels have not come close to matching their dynamic output on the ground in 2022, when they led the nation* at 256.5 yards per game. (*Service academies excluded.) This year they’re averaging a merely respectable 181.2 ypg, on a mediocre 4.6 per carry. After a sluggish September though, the running game has picked up some steam in SEC play, largely due to the re-emergence of sophomore workhorse Quinshon Judkins. Judkins has looked much more like his prolific freshman self since the Week 4 loss at Alabama, hitting the century mark in 4 of the past 5 games while accounting for an SEC-best 12 rushing touchdowns on the year.

Ole Miss is not going to physically outmuscle Georgia in the trenches, but the Rebels do need to make some headway between the tackles to keep the Dawgs honest on the RPOs and play-action looks that make up a significant share of the passing game. The better things are going, the more significant the share. Dart has employed play-action on 45.8% of his total drop-backs this season, per PFF — not as high as last year, when he led the nation in play-action rate at 57.6%, but still the highest rate in the SEC. In that context, it’s telling that the Rebels’ only loss came in the only game in which they were truly stuffed: Their 56 rushing yards on 1.9 per carry against Bama represent their worst performance under Kiffin in both categories. (Their 10 points against the Tide also represented a Kiffin-era low outside of a 21-7 loss to Baylor in the Sugar Bowl 2 seasons ago.) Keeping some combination of Dart, Judkins and Ulysses Bentley IV viable on the ground is essential to keeping Dart out of must-pass situations where he’s a sitting duck.

Georgia, for its part, is not quite the impenetrable monolith against the run we’ve grown accustomed to. Even a roster as stacked as UGA’s has a limit to how many first-rounders it can replace without feeling it: The Bulldogs rank 15th nationally in rushing defense and 44th in yards per carry allowed, a departure from a four-year run from 2019-22 when they ranked in the top three in both categories each year. They just allowed an individual 100-yard rusher, Missouri’s Cody Schrader, for the first time in more than three years, and lost the veteran leader of the front seven, linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson, to an unspecified injury. It’s possible — not probable, but possible — that Ole Miss is catching the Dawgs at just the right time to be able to churn out a living.

The key matchup: Ole Miss WR Tre Harris vs. Georgia CB Kamari Lassiter

A former All-Conference USA pick at Louisiana Tech, Harris’ return to the lineup after missing all or most of 3 games in September (including the loss at Alabama) has been a boon to a position rebuilt almost entirely via the portal. When he’s been on the field, he’s been borderline unstoppable, averaging 19.7 yards per catch and an FBS-best 4.14 yards per route run, per PFF. For the uninitiated, Harris’ performance in last week’s 38-35 win over Texas A&M was a revelation. Not only did he account for 213 of Dart’s 387 passing yards against the Aggies: He did it in high style, with a handful of highlight-reel grabs that included his lone touchdown of the afternoon and a 1-handed gem that will hold up as a legitimate candidate for Catch of the Year.

Lassiter is coming off an impressive Week 10 performance in his own right. Typically an outside corner, he spent much of his afternoon against Missouri holding down the nickel role opposite the Tigers’ electric slot receiver, Luther Burden III, after Burden got behind the coverage for a 39-yard touchdown on Mizzou’s opening series; from that point on, he had just 1 catch for 7 yards the rest of the game. Against Ole Miss, Lassiter will be back on the corner, where at 6-0, 180 pounds he’ll be at a notable disadvantage vs. the 6-2, 205-pound Harris on contested catches, where both guys tend to play bigger than their listed size. As always, separation against Georgia’s secondary is a rare luxury. Connecting on the inevitable jump-ball heaves in Harris’ direction — or at least drawing a pass interference flag or two — will be a factor in the Rebels’ ability to extend and finish drives, especially in the red zone.

The verdict …

It’s worth noting that, while Ole Miss is arguably as healthy as it has been all year, Georgia is hitting the uphill portion of the schedule with 3 future pros likely on ice: Brock Bowers, Amarius Mims and Jamon Dumas-Johnson. There has been some buzz concerning Bowers’ earlier-than-expected return from ankle surgery after he was reportedly running at or near full speed earlier this week; based on Kirby Smart‘s comments about Bowers’ lack of lateral movement at this stage of the recovery, expecting to see No. 19 back in action Saturday seems wildly optimistic. (Smart is notoriously conservative when it comes to players returning from injury, in general.) Mims, who has been week-to-week for the past month with a similar injury, is questionable.

As the Bulldogs have proven repeatedly, though, individual star power takes a backseat to the unrivaled depth across the roster. The offense has playmakers at every position and hasn’t missed a beat in Bowers’ absence. The defense, a relatively no-name group, still ranks at or near the top of the SEC in every category that matters. At some stage of the proceedings, the headliners’ status might make a difference, one way or the other. This weekend is not it.
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Georgia 33 | • Ole Miss 24

Tennessee (-1.5) at Missouri

Let’s go ahead and call this the battle for 2nd place in the SEC East, although in the Vols’ case there is a faint sliver of hope that they can still wind up on top: A win at Mizzou plus an Ole Miss win in Athens would leave it up to next week’s Tennessee/Georgia tilt in Knoxville to decide the division. (A UGA win on Saturday clinches it outright for the Dawgs.) Banking on the team that’s won 26 straight to drop 2 in a row with the season on the line isn’t ideally where you’d like to find yourself in mid-November, but you know, that’s what happens when you lose to a mediocre version of Florida. In an otherwise pretty chalky year, the Vols’ Week 3 flop in Gainesville is shaping up as one of the season’s most regrettable defeats.

Meanwhile, has the clock struck midnight on Missouri QB Brady Cook? For a while there, Cook was one of the hottest quarterbacks in the country: Over a 4-game stretch from Week 3 to Week 6, he averaged 375 yards per game and 10.1 per attempts with 10 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. In 3 games since, he’s averaged just shy of 200 yards per game on 7.0 per attempt, with as many picks (3) as touchdowns. Cook has been more productive as a runner lately, but no nearly enough to offset the cool-down through the air. Playing at Georgia accounts for part of that dip, but prior to last week he’d already notably chillier in defensively-driven wins over Kentucky and South Carolina. In retrospect, the 4th-quarter pick-6 that clinched the Tigers’ first loss against LSU is beginning to look like the moment his season turned into a pumpkin.

In that context, the potential absence of star wideout Luther Burden III, whose status for Saturday is TBD due to an unspecified injury, looms as a worst-case scenario. His running mates, Theo Wease and Mookie Cooper, are both former blue-chip recruits who are having fine seasons. But there’s not an offense in America that could lose an asset like Burden and not feel it. With him, even a diminished version of his usual electric self would command enough respect to open things up for the rest of the attack. Without him, Cook is at risk of a full-blown regression.
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• Tennessee 31 | Missouri 26

Florida at LSU (-13.5)

Jayden Daniels is “probable” to start against the Gators, per Brian Kelly, who told reporters on Thursday that Daniels has been active in practice and is close to clearing the NCAA’s concussion protocols in the wake of the big hit that knocked him out of LSU’s loss at Alabama. That’s a significant development for LSU’s bid to avoid a crash-and-burn scenario with no remaining path to the SEC Championship Game or Playoff. It’s also big news for a Heisman race that, on paper, Daniels should still be very much a part of despite his team fading from the national radar. Statistically, he’s running the table: First nationally in total offense, No. 1 in yards per attempt, No. 1 in passer rating, No. 1 in Total QBR, No. 1 in EPA, first in overall PFF grading, just to check off the big ones. Assuming he’s his usual, efficient self over the next 3 weeks, injury should be no excuse for scratching him from the list of finalists bound for New York next month.

As for Florida, last week’s overtime loss to Arkansas, at home, tipped a listless season over the line toward a pending meltdown. The loss itself was bad enough; worse, with LSU, Missouri and Florida State on deck, it left the 5-4 Gators staring down the barrel of a losing record in Billy Napier‘s second season. Daniels or no Daniels, a road trip to Baton Rouge is a steep test for an outfit that’s a dismal 2-9 in road/neutral games on Napier’s watch. (The 2 wins coming at Texas A&M last year and at South Carolina earlier this year.) Next week’s date against Mizzou also is on the road. By the time they return home for the season-finale against FSU, the reception in The Swamp might be so ice-cold they can hardly tell the difference.
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LSU 36 | • Florida 27

Mississippi State at Texas A&M (-19.5)

This is one of those games that should have 2 point spreads: A narrower one if Mississippi State QB Will Rogers, and a much larger one if he doesn’t. Not that Rogers was lighting up the box scores before he injured his shoulder in Week 6. In the meantime, though, the Bulldogs have bottomed out, managing a grand total of 2 touchdowns in their past 3 games in his absence. Backup Mike Wright has demonstrated no ability whatsoever to push the ball downfield, which with leading rusher Jo’Quavious Marks also on the shelf has ground the offense to a halt. Rogers returned to practice this week, but as of Thursday was still awaiting the green light; MSU continued to classify his status as “day to day.”

At any rate, opposite A&M’s blue-chip defense the question only concerns the margin, not the result. The Aggies rank No. 1 or 2 in the SEC in total defense, rushing defense, passing defense, 3rd-down defense, tackles for loss and sacks, while eating most of the conference’s other lesser offenses (Auburn, Arkansas, South Carolina) for breakfast. The only area where they haven’t fared as well: Takeaways, having generated only 7 in 9 games.
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Texas A&M 30 | • Mississippi State 13

Auburn at Arkansas (-2.5)

Has Arkansas turned over a new leaf? The Razorbacks fired offensive coordinator Dan Enos in the midst of a 6-game losing streak, and immediately looked like a different team in a 39-36 win at Florida. Besides the new play-caller, Kenny Guiton, the Hogs also benefited enormously from a more-or-less healthy Rocket Sanders, who returned to the lineup for the first time in weeks and looked like his old, explosive self for the first time all season, running for 103 yards on 18 carries. Combined with a hard-charging effort from QB KJ Jefferson, the result was Arkansas’ best rushing performance of the season, by a mile.

Auburn has also fared significantly better on defense the past 2 weeks, at least partly due to the good fortune of playing Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. RB Jarquez Hunter set new career highs on the crowd against both the Bulldogs (144 yards) and the Commodores (183), and beleaguered QB Payton Thorne has looked downright cromulent for the first time all year. The Music City Bowl is in one of these teams’ futures; let’s find out which turnaround has the staying power.
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• Arkansas 23 | Auburn 20

Vanderbilt at South Carolina (-13.5)

Neither Shane Beamer nor Clark Lea is going anywhere anytime soon, but they’re certainly not feeling great about where things stand with their respective rebuilds, either. South Carolina, which came into the season hoping to build on last year’s 8-5 finish, is limping into the home stretch at 1-6 vs. Power 5 opponents, with all but 1 of those losses coming by double digits. Vanderbilt, which came into the season hoping to build on last year’s 2 conference wins, is 0-6 in SEC play by an average margin of nearly 20 points per game. Looking ahead, their respective rivalry dates against Clemson and Tennessee to close the season have disaster written all over them. They both need this win, in other words, if for no other reason than to avoid the East Division basement. It ain’t much, but at this point, 6 months of be able to say “yeah, but at least we didn’t finish in last place” sure beats the alternative.
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• South Carolina 36 | Vanderbilt 21

Scoreboard

Week 10 record: 6-2 straight-up | 5-2-1 vs. spread
Season record: 53-12 straight-up | 33-31-1 vs. spread