Betting Stuff: Back a defensive player to go No. 1 overall in 2025 NFL Draft

The 2024 NFL Draft broke records when it came to quarterbacks. Caleb Williams knew for months he was going to be the No. 1 overall pick; we did, too. There was no intrigue at the top. And for weeks there wasn’t really much intrigue in picks 2 or 3. Washington was going to draft either Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye. New England was going to draft whichever quarterback was left — it never made sense trading the pick.

What no one expected, however, is that a record 6 quarterbacks would come off the board in the first 12 picks. The run on offensive players was one thing, but it was the belief by so many teams that a future franchise quarterback could be found after the trio of Williams, Daniels, and Maye that caught people by surprise.

But you can’t look at the start of the 2024 NFL Draft without considering the potential of the 2025 class. One explains the other.

There is not a single quarterback in the 2025 class that can be what Caleb Williams can for the Chicago Bears. There are a number of quarterbacks who could go No. 1 overall, but we probably won’t see teams moving heaven and earth to draft Quinn Ewers. Shedeur Sanders? Maybe, but he has to get through a season upright first.

Nevertheless, Sanders opened as the favorite to go No. 1 overall in multiple markets. FanDuel has Sanders, Ewers, and Carson Beck as co-favorites (+500 odds) to be the top pick. Sanders opened with shorter odds at DraftKings (+100), where he stands alone as the favorite.

If you want to wait a year to cash a ticket, bet on a defensive player to go No. 1 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.

The board, as of April 29:

Williams’ selection by the Bears marked the second consecutive year a quarterback has been taken No. 1 overall. It was also the eighth time in the last 11 years that a QB was the top pick. The 3 No. 1 picks who were not quarterbacks all played the same role — a pass-rushing edge.

Even as the value of offensive players skyrockets, the most coveted position on the defensive side of the football (edge) still creates enough value for a team to go No. 1. Doesn’t matter how good your corners are in the NFL if you can’t pressure the quarterback. Any one will pick apart a secondary if given the time.

And while the 2025 class isn’t long on franchise-changing quarterbacks, it has the potential to produce several defense-altering edge rushers.

Tennessee edge James Pearce Jr. is a popular name to be the top pick. He’s a 6-foot-5, 242-pound junior who burst through last fall. He had 2 sacks in 13 games as a true freshman. As a sophomore last year, he produced 14.5 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 2 forced fumbles, and an interception. Per Pro Football Focus, his 21.3% pressure rate ranked third among FBS edge defenders. His 91 overall defensive grade ranked fourth and his 88 coverage grade ranked seventh.

From a tools standpoint, Pearce has everything an NFL team could want. He’s long, he’s athletic, he’s tenacious. As a sophomore, he was largely winning on pure talent. When he develops some counters, he could be unblockable. If that happens this offseason, he could lead the FBS in sacks in 2024. And when UT started dropping him into coverage a bit more, he produced a pick-six.

“We think the sky’s the limit for him,” defensive coordinator Tim Banks said of Pearce this spring. “I think he’s just scratching the surface on how good he can be. He’s extremely versatile … He’s got really good drop skills, ball awareness. I think James would be the first one to tell you there’s a lot of room for improvement on his end. And the good news is he’s working extremely hard right now to take another step.”

He looked a little light in the upper body last fall, but possesses a frame that will allow him to continue to add good weight. He was, after all, just a true sophomore. And Banks’ “the sky’s the limit” sentiment is almost undoubtedly shared amongst NFL front offices.

We saw a team draft a project edge rusher No. 1 overall just 2 years ago.  Pearce has some traits that just can’t be taught.

He currently has the best odds of any of the non-quarterbacks to go No. 1 next year.

Related: Several of the top TN sportsbook apps have NFL futures on the board already for the 2024 season and the 2025 NFL Draft. Sign up today and get in on the action.

We’ll talk a ton about Travis Hunter over the next year, and deservedly so. The Colorado corner/receiver is a supreme athletic talent — someone who proved early in the year he could play both sides of the ball at an elite level at the major college level. Hunter is a playmaker, but he’s going to have to play one or the other at the NFL level.

I’ll be curious to see if Colorado features him more on one side of the ball this upcoming season, as doing so would certainly help his draft stock. It might also help Hunter hold up through the year.

He played 152 snaps in Colorado’s Week 1 win over TCU — finishing with 119 receiving yards and an interception. He played more than 100 snaps in 7 of his 9 appearances. But he also played more on defense than on offense in all but 1 game.

Keyshawn Johnson (1996) and Irving Fryar (1984) are the only receivers taken No. 1 overall in the common draft era. A defensive back has never been taken with the top pick.

Could Hunter do it? Possibly, but I think it’s a longshot. And there’s a better sleeper option on the board.

Get aboard the hype train for Texas A&M’s Nic Scourton (+11000 via FanDuel) now before it leaves the station. A 6-foot-4, 280-pound junior, Scourton transferred to Texas A&M from Purdue this offseason. Last fall, he had 15 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, 3 pass breakups, and 42 quarterback pressures. His 90.9 pass-rushing grade was the fourth-best among Power 5 edge defenders, and Purdue dropped him into coverage a ton.

Scourton is powerful enough to set the edge as a 5-tech. He’s an outstanding pass-rusher. What might teams think of a versatile edge rusher with wonderful size who leads the Big Ten in sacks one year, then transfers to the SEC and leads that league in sacks the next year?

Because that future is entirely possible.

“He led the Big Ten in sacks last year. That does not happen by accident,” A&M coach Mike Elko said of Scourton following the Aggies’ spring game. “He has played a lot of football. He knows how to go about his business. He has a really strong repertoire of pass-rush (moves).”

Elsewhere, Penn State’s Abdul Carter (+4000 via DraftKings) will get a ton of Micah Parsons comparisons. Georgia’s Mykel Williams (+2500 via DraftKings) will have the spotlight. I keep mentioning Florida State’s Patrick Payton (+2500 via DraftKings) as a breakout player to watch in 2024. And then there’s Harold Perkins Jr. at LSU.

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One of the most sought-after recruits in the 2022 recruiting class, Perkins joined the Tigers and in 14 games as a true freshman produced 73 tackles to go along with 14 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. Perkins excelled on raw talent as a pass-rusher in 2022. Then LSU tried to deploy him as an inside linebacker to start the 2023 campaign only to ditch that plan 1 game into the season, opting instead to run him out as a SAM ‘backer. Ahead of the new year, he has moved back to inside ‘backer.

He’s a versatile defender with playmaking chops and loads of potential.

“We’re not going to put him in one spot and say, ‘This is what you’re going to do,’” LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker said this spring. “We have to start him there. He’s got to get really good at the position. Then, again, his innate ability to come off the edge, he’s a really good blitzer on the inside, he’s really good in coverage. There’s not much that the guy can’t do. We just can’t overload him with all that right now.”

From the NFL’s perspective, the 6-foot-1, 220-pound Perkins doesn’t have the right frame to be a full-time edge rusher and he had poor moments as a run defender last fall. If Baker can get the most out of Perkins as a “move around the board” defensive playmaker, there will be some interest. With an implied probability of 4.8%, DraftKings is probably pretty dead-center with his odds.

The point here, though, is there are far more interesting defensive options for No. 1 in this 2025 class than there are quarterbacks.

Next year’s top pick could fall to the Carolina Panthers, the Tennessee Titans, or the Denver Broncos. None are spending a No. 1 pick on a quarterback. If the Las Vegas Raiders or the New York Giants land the top pick, they could trade down and still get their pick of quarterbacks.

Because of the NFL Draft’s recent history, a quarterback is the early favorite to go No. 1 in the 2025 NFL Draft. Right now, there’s more value to be had backing a defensive player.