Time for our weekly picks and bets from around the SEC. As always, SDS news desk editor Michael Bratton (@MichaelWBratton) and SDS senior national columnist Connor O’Gara (@cjogara) go head-to-head, picking every SEC game against the spread while sharing their thoughts heading into each matchup.
Here are our Week 13 SEC selections:
Ole Miss at #14 Mississippi State (-14.5)
Michael: The Iron Bowl has significantly more on the line but I’ve been looking forward to this one for much longer. There is no more heated rivalry in the SEC than the Egg Bowl right now. Before any Alabama or Auburn fans get upset by that statement, realize both Mississippi ADs had to publicly plead for civil behavior from their fans this week leading up to the Egg Bowl. That pretty much says it all. Ole Miss has shown the ability to go on the road and compete in league play, the Rebels beat Kentucky in Lexington, and Mississippi State’s dismissive attitude all week leads me to believe Ole Miss will be ready for this one. In the end, Mississippi State’s ground game should be enough to get the win but don’t expect a blowout in this one.
Mississippi State 35, Ole Miss 30
Connor: The Magnolia State feels like it has a clear No. 1 team. On Thursday, it’ll be the home team. A spread that large for this game feels atypical, but it’s understandable given what MSU was done against non-elite SEC teams. With the exception of the Arkansas game last week, the Bulldogs have been dominant. I’m interested to see if Todd Grantham’s defense is able to generate pressure consistently on Jordan Ta’amu. If it does, this one will be even more lopsided than a couple touchdowns. I’m banking on that happening.
Mississippi State 42, Ole Miss 21
Missouri (-10) at Arkansas
Michael: Bret Bielema and Arkansas continue to say all the right things but nothing seems to change on the field. This Razorback program lost its identity last season and never managed to regain it following the loss of Sam Pittman. Now they host a Missouri team that’s pistol-whipping every team in its path. The Tigers are averaging over 50 points per game during the current five-game winning streak. The Razorbacks couldn’t even score 50 on Florida A&M this season. The only win Arkansas fans will get this weekend is the official end of the Bielema era.
Missouri 56, Arkansas 14
Connor: What if I told you two months ago that Missouri would start 1-5 and it would still be a double-digit road favorite against Bret Bielema’s team? Crazy, right? Neither of these teams have much of a defense, but unfortunately for Arkansas, it doesn’t have the weapons to keep up with Drew Lock and the Tiger passing attack. I predicted after the Florida game that Missouri would finish 2017 on that 6-game winning streak (that doesn’t look very bold now), and I’m not backing off that now. In the final game of the Bielema era, Arkansas gets smoked by red-hot Mizzou.
Missouri 49, Arkansas 28
#1 Alabama (-4.5) at #6 Auburn
Michael: I understand why so many are eager to pick Auburn in this game. The Tide’s defense is banged up and Auburn’s offense is really rolling behind a balanced attack. On the other side of the ball, Auburn’s defense is playing as well as any unit in the league right now. However, I still give Alabama a huge advantage in coaching and at the quarterback position. I’m not the biggest Jalen Hurts fan, I think he’s a glorified running back that occasionally is asked to throw the ball, but despite his limitations, the one thing he cannot be questioned on is his leadership and ability to help Alabama win. The guy is a pure winner and the moment won’t be too big for him. I can’t say that about Jarrett Stidham until we see him step up and win a game for Auburn. I even picked Auburn to win the West and the SEC on my SEC Media Days ballot so this is tough for me to say but I like Alabama.
Alabama 24, Auburn 21
Connor: Ah, the game of the week/year in college football. Jarrett Stidham vs. that Alabama defense. Jalen Hurts vs. that Auburn defense. Alabama without Lane Kiffin in its first real headliner of the year. Gus Malzahn against Nick Saban. This isn’t a “throw out the records” game because Alabama won 38 of 39 games for a reason. That reason is that the Tide never lose the battle at the line of scrimmage, and they don’t shoot themselves in the foot against good teams. Even against an Auburn defense that’s been lights out down the stretch, I don’t think Alabama makes that one massive mistake that swings a close game. Stidham makes one more mistake than Hurts and the Tide win on a late touchdown.
Alabama 24, Auburn 20
#7 Georgia (-11) at Georgia Tech
Michael: If Kirby Smart is to be believed, this could be an interesting game for the Bulldogs. During Wednesday’s SEC Coaches Teleconference, Smart said Georgia had to completely throw out the defense in order to prepare for Tech’s triple-option offense. The Yellow Jackets are certainly capable of gashing even the best defenses on the ground and force opponents to make the most out of limited offensive possessions. While Tech may have some success against the Bulldogs, this is a game many of Georgia’s players have publicly looked forward to since last season’s fourth-quarter collapse in Athens. Given the way that one ended, don’t expect the Bulldogs to let up in this one.
Georgia 38, Georgia Tech 24
Connor: This is an interesting spread because the potential for a blowout is absolutely there, as is the potential for an upset. We saw what happened to Georgia against Auburn when it had to play all 60 minutes. The wheels fell off late and the Dawgs couldn’t stop the run in the second half. We also know that a 1-dimensional attack hasn’t beaten Georgia all year and that the Dawgs usually feast on predictable offenses. On the road, Kirby Smart shouldn’t need any extra motivators for his Playoff-hopeful squad, especially not after what happened in Athens last year. I think Georgia asserts its dominance and delivers a strong statement before the SEC Championship.
Georgia 35, Georgia Tech 17
Louisville (-10) at Kentucky
Michael: Kentucky’s record is nice but anytime the Wildcats have gone up against a quality opponent, the results have been fairly lopsided. Louisville is coming off a few nice wins and Lamar Jackson is having arguably the quietest season a returning Heisman winner has ever had considering his performance has not dropped off. Benny Snell may be the SEC’s most underrated running back but he can’t match the fireworks of the reigning Heisman winner.
Louisville 42, Kentucky 28
Connor: I don’t like to reference history with matchups because I don’t think it’s necessarily an indicator of future performance. But it’s easy to question if the Cardinals can block for 60 minutes like they failed to do last year. Of course, having arguably the most dynamic quarterback in America is supposed to be the great equalizer. There’s something else I realized with this one, and it’s a credit to the Louisville offensive line. Does anyone realize that Louisville ran for 709 yards in the last 2 games alone? Even against a Kentucky squad that’s been fairly decent against the run, I think Louisville’s offense is finally playing its best ball of the season, and that continues in Lexington.
Louisville 38, Kentucky 24
Florida State (-5) at Florida
Michael: Florida showed signs of life for the first time since September last week when the team smashed a UAB team in the Swamp. This game could have bowl implications for FSU, they need to win out in order to qualify, but while the Gators won’t be bowling this year, knocking out the Seminoles from extending their 35-year bowl streak could be a nice consolation prize. Feleipe Franks may have played the best game of his career against the Blazers and if he manages to carry over that to this one, Florida stands a good chance of beating the Noles.
Florida 24, Florida State 21
Connor: Crazy it is that this is a battle of 4-win teams. Florida State is still pushing for a late-season bowl berth because it added Louisiana Monroe to the back end of its schedule after the Hurricane Irma cancellation. Is that really enough motivation for a team that was once predicted to play for a national championship? Only time will tell. The Gators, on the other hand, have nothing to play for except getting over the hump in that rivalry. Even after the UAB win, it’s fair to question how many guys are already looking ahead to next year. Will this be a game in which Florida can execute a game plan on both sides of the ball? Or will this turn into an undisciplined slop fest? I’m betting on the latter.
Florida State 14, Florida 10
Vanderbilt at Tennessee (-1)
Michael: Tennessee is a game away from the worst season in the program’s 121-year history. Coming off back-to-back pathetic offensive showings, at least the Vols get a chance to face a Vanderbilt defense that’s given up 89 points over the last two weeks. While Tennessee’s defense has shown some heart all season long, the lack of any offensive production will continue to haunt this team. Considering Vanderbilt at least has some offensive balance, that’s all the edge the Commodores need to beat Tennessee for the fourth time in six seasons.
Vanderbilt 17, Tennessee 16
Connor: Two teams will enter, one team has to win…right? Are we sure both of these teams can’t find a way to lose on Saturday? Well if we’re picking a winner, I’ll go with a Tennessee offense that looks sort of improved? I like Brady Hoke’s chances of shutting down Vanderbilt’s disappointing ground game and making Kyle Shurmur beat them. As simple as it sounds, that’s what doomed the Commodores all season. Well, that and a defense that lost all of its mojo when Alabama rolled into town.
Tennessee 21, Vanderbilt 17
#3 Clemson (-13.5) at #24 South Carolina
Michael: If I had a vote for SEC Coach of the Year, Will Muschamp would get my vote. What he’s been able to squeeze out of this South Carolina team is remarkable given the lack of depth, youth and inexperience and loss of its best player for the season early on in the year. The environment should be incredible for this game and if Jake Bentley has a career game, the Gamecocks could make this one interesting. That being said, Clemson has a filthy amount of linemen that should be the difference in this one. Credit the Gamecocks and Muschamp for the strides made this year but they still have a ways to go to catch the Tigers.
Clemson 30, South Carolina 14
Connor: That line feels a bit high to me. Almost too high. Does Vegas know something that we don’t? I get that last year was a rout, but South Carolina is an improved team and I’m not convinced Clemson has been playing its best football the last few weeks. I always wonder if a team that has a somewhat surprising drop in the Playoff rankings after a win gets some extra motivation from that. That could be the case. Here’s what I find even more interesting. Clemson has played in 5 games that have been decided by 14 points or less this year. South Carolina, on the other hand, has played in 8 such contests. I don’t think this one has “blowout” written all over it. Clemson has to sweat one out on the road to keep its spot in the top 4.
Clemson 31, South Carolina 21
Texas A&M at #18 LSU (-10)
Michael: I was leaning toward picking Texas A&M in this one but Tuesday night’s report of Kevin Sumlin’s pending demise comes at the worst time for a young team hopeful to save their coach’s job. We’ve already seen the negative reactions online from several players and that has to carry over to the preparation this week. While LSU is far from where they need to be to compete for league titles, they seem to have found their identity this season and have embraced what it is they do well. Expect more ground and pound this weekend in Death Valley, setting up a nice bowl destination in the near future for the Tigers.
LSU 28, Texas A&M 10
Connor: I never know how a team is going to perform when it knows its coach is getting fired. Do they played inspired football and shock the world? Or do they come out defeated like the season is already over? I’m going with the former for the Aggies. I like what the offense has looked like since Nick Starkel took over, and I think in their final game of the Kevin Sumlin era, A&M gives the LSU defense the most problems it’s had since…Troy. I think Christian Kirk’s last regular season game — and maybe last college game — is a big one with a touchdown on special teams and as a receiver. Give me the road upset to close the Sumlin era.
Texas A&M 34, LSU 28
A graduate of the University of Tennessee, Michael Wayne Bratton oversees the news coverage for Saturday Down South. Michael previously worked for FOX Sports and NFL.com
