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Each week, Saturday Down South’s playoff predictor will project which four teams would make the College Football Playoff if the season ended now.
The formula takes into account Vegas national championship odds, offensive and defensive efficiency, analytics, strength of schedule, division standings and the major polls.
The team with the lowest score is the most likely to make the four-team Playoff. (You can find a longer explanation of the formula at the bottom of this post.)
Keep in mind, this is not a projection of where things will be at the end of the season. It’s a projection of where things stand if the season ended today.
Under that premise, Alabama vs. Auburn and Mississippi State vs. Florida State would meet in the national semifinals.
TCU, Oregon, Michigan State and Kansas State are the other teams most likely to push into the playoff, according to our formula.
Week 10 eliminated four more teams from Playoff contention, meaning 113 of the 128 FBS programs have no hope for a national championship.
THE PLAYOFF TEAMS
1. Alabama
Score: 40.5
Last Week: No. 1
The Numbers Say: The Tide slipped in the polls and in Vegas, but improved its efficiency during the bye week, sliding to No. 9 and No. 2 in offensive and defensive points per possession, respectively. That’s the best combined efficiency in the country.
Bottom Line: For all the talk of Auburn’s difficult schedule, it’s Alabama that must travel to LSU before hosting Mississippi State and Auburn.
Next Up: at LSU.
2. Mississippi State
Score: 54.5
Last Week: No. 2
The Numbers Say: The Bulldogs’ offensive efficiency dropped after a lackluster performance by Dak Prescott and his teammates against the Arkansas defense. Mississippi State also jumped from No. 17 to No. 8 in FEI, the analytics metric we use in our formula, as several other good teams lost.
Bottom Line: Mississippi State should come to Tuscaloosa at 9-0 in two weeks. Win that game and the Bulldogs are close to a pretty sure thing for the College Football Playoff.
Next Up: vs. Tennessee-Martin.
3. Florida State
Score: 61.5
Last Week: No. 4
The Numbers Say: The Seminoles rank just 13th in the country in the Sagarin Ratings, which place a heavy emphasis on strength of schedule. (The College Football Playoff committee seems to do the same.) The team’s 58th-ranked defensive efficiency is its biggest anchor right now.
Bottom Line: FSU doesn’t play anyone threatening the remainder of the season and could be headed for an ACC championship rematch against Duke. The Seminoles likely are a playoff team.
Next Up: vs. Virginia.
4. Auburn
Score: 62
Last Week: No. 9
The Numbers Say: The Tigers are No. 1 in the Sagarin Ratings (that schedule, doe), No. 2 in the analytics metric and No. 3 in the human polls. Vegas, though, slots them seventh, and the team’s defensive efficiency has plummeted from No. 17 to No. 48 in two weeks.
Bottom Line: Beating Ole Miss on the road catapulted Auburn up the rankings after a surprise No. 3 slot in the CFP poll. But the Tigers still must face Georgia and Alabama on the road.
Next Up: vs. Texas A&M.
THE PAT HADENS
These teams are the last ones cut by that (crazy?) College Football Playoff Committee. If the season ended today.
5. TCU
Score: 69.5
Last: No. 5
The Numbers Say: The analytics metric doesn’t like the Horned Frogs, singlehandedly costing the team the fourth spot behind Auburn. But TCU’s combined efficiency is better than every team in the top six except Alabama.
Bottom Line: Beat Kansas State at home and TCU becomes a certifiable playoff contender, but not until then.
Next Up: vs. Kansas State.
6. Oregon
Score: 70.5
Last: No. 7
The Numbers Say: Vegas thinks the Ducks have the best chance to win the national title and the analytics metric ranks the team No. 1 as well. The team boasts the No. 2 offense in the country in terms of points per possession, but that 79th-ranked defense is by far the lowest-ranked unit on either side of the ball for any contender.
Bottom Line: The suddenly-mediocre Pac-12 North is all but over. If Oregon can survive a tricky game this weekend, it may be a Pac-12 championship win away from a playoff spot.
Next Up: at Utah.
7. Michigan State
Score: 76
Last: No. 6
The Numbers Say: The Spartans have the third-best combined efficiency in the country behind Alabama and Marshall. But the analytics metric ranks them an abysmal 24th in the country, and Sagarin slots them 11th.
Bottom Line: Lose this weekend and the Big Ten may be done. Beat Ohio State and the Spartans need to enter full-fledged campaign mode as a one-loss season seems likely.
Next Up: vs. Ohio State.
8. Kansas State
Score: 79
Last: No. 12
The Numbers Say: The analytics metric isn’t a fan, but most every other indicator slots the Wildcats somewhere in this vicinity, in striking distance of the top five.
Bottom Line: KSU has slowly, quietly climbed as the lone team unbeaten in Big 12 play, but the schedule toughens with road games against TCU, West Virginia and Baylor.
Next Up: at TCU.
THE DAN MARINOS
Strong contenders, still alive, but unlikely to actually win anything.
9. Ohio State: 90.5
10. Baylor: 95.5
THE BRADY HOKES
Good enough to make a mediocre bowl game. Can you say San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl?
11. Nebraska: 103.5
12. Notre Dame: 105.5
THE VANDY JAMES FRANKLINS
The ceiling is limited, but they’re feisty.
13. Arizona State: 113.5
THE DONALD STERLINGS
Only alive on paper.
Duke
Marshall
ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION
These teams will not get a College Football Playoff bid.
Count: 113 of 128
Air Force
Akron
Appalachian State
Arkansas
Arkansas State
Arizona
Army
Ball State
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green
Buffalo
BYU
California
Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Clemson
Colorado
Colorado State
Connecticut
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan
Florida
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Fresno State
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Georgia Tech
Hawaii
Houston
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas
Kent State
Kentucky
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana Tech
Louisville
LSU
Maryland
Massachusetts
Memphis
Miami (Fla.)
Miami (Ohio)
Michigan
Middle Tennessee
Minnesota
Missouri
Navy
Nevada
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Northern Illinois
North Texas
Northwestern
Old Dominion
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Ole Miss
Oregon State
Penn State
Pitt
Purdue
Rice
San Diego State
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Carolina
South Florida
Southern Methodist
Southern Miss
Stanford
Syracuse
Temple
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Texas-San Antonio
Texas State
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UCLA
UNLV
USC
Utah
Utah State
UTEP
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
Western Kentucky
Western Michigan
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.