Auburn vs. Tennessee preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Auburn will travel to Knoxville to take on Tennessee in a top-25 matchup on Wednesday night.

Tennessee is currently tied with Alabama atop the SEC regular season standings. Auburn isn’t far behind, as the Tigers are just 1 game back entering this contest. This game will have major implications for both the SEC title winner and seeding for the SEC Tournament.

Let’s dig into this matchup:

Auburn vs. Tennessee Betting Odds

Spread: Tennessee -7 (DraftKings)

Total: Over/Under 151.5 points (DraftKings)

Betting trends to know for Auburn

Auburn is…

17-10 against the spread
0-1 against the spread as an underdog
4-4 against the spread on the road
10-4 against the spread in SEC games

Betting trends to know for Tennessee

Tennessee is…

13-13-1 against the spread
12-10-1 against the spread as a favorite
9-4-1 against the spread at home
8-6 against the spread in SEC games

3 notes for the game

Tennessee’s defense has been stepping up

Tennessee’s defense has been trending up lately in a big way. The Vols have allowed under 1 point per possession in each of their past 4 games, marking the first time this season they’ve accomplished that feat. Now, only one of those matchups came against a possible NCAA Tournament team (Texas A&M), but the numbers still look just as impressive after adjusting for opponent strength, per BartTorvik.

The Vols have the No. 2-ranked defense in the country this season, per KenPom’s ratings. As they often are under Rick Barnes, the Vols have been extremely difficult to break down on that end of the floor. Tennessee ranks highly across the board in defensive metrics — 3rd in effective field goal percentage, 33rd in 3-point percentage and 20th in block rate.

With that in mind, the idea that the Vols are getting even better on the defensive end of the floor is an enticing thought going as they prepare to face an Auburn team that has been floundering offensively.

Auburn’s 3-point shooting has been very inconsistent

Auburn’s offense has been a roller coaster over the last 4 games. Two of those contests (at Florida and vs. Kentucky) saw Tennessee post paltry offensive ratings of 99.2 and 88.3, respectively. The other 2 games in that span, however, produced high-flying offensive ratings of 147.1 against South Carolina and 143.4 against Georgia.

So which Auburn team will show up in Knoxville on Wednesday night? It’s all going to come down to 3-point shooting. The Tigers were 7-of-39 (18%) against the Gators and Wildcats and then 26-of-46 (57%) against the Gamecocks and Bulldogs.

The Tigers have made 34.1% of their long-range attempts this season, which ranks in the middle-of-the-pack both nationally and in the SEC this year. But they’ve been prone to cold-spells, particularly in losses. In Auburn’s last 5 defeats, it has shot a combined 21-of-115 (18%) from downtown. In all 5 of those games, Auburn shot 25% or worse from beyond the arc. There have been other games, too, that Auburn has won despite poor 3-point shooting (5-of-22 vs. Texas A&M and 5-of-19 vs. Alabama are a couple of examples).

It’s also worth noting that Jaylin Williams, one of Auburn’s best shooters, is questionable for this game per Bruce Pearl. Williams missed Auburn’s most recent game due to a knee injury he suffered on Feb. 17. Williams has made 41.4% of his 3-pointers this season and is also a key part of Auburn’s defense.

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Recent history

Auburn has enjoyed a lot of success in this series in recent years, particularly since it became a Bruce Pearl vs. Rick Barnes matchup beginning in 2015-16. Since that season, Auburn is 8-5 straight up in this series and 9-4 against the spread.

The Tigers have won 7 of their last 9 games overall against the Vols, although the 2 exceptions were both played in Knoxville — just as Wednesday night’s matchup will be. Auburn is 8-1 against the spread in those 9 games. Remarkably, Auburn has won outright as an underdog in this series 5 times since the start of the 2017-18 season.

1 pick for this game

Tennessee -7. If I thought Jaylin Williams was healthy, I’d probably take Auburn in this spot. But without Williams, Auburn is significantly worse on both ends of the floor. I think there are a lot of outcomes here where Tennessee is able to get ahead early and cruise to a blowout victory. Auburn’s dominance in this series over the past few years is certainly worth noting, but I think the Tigers are out-matched in this spot.