There’s only so much embarrassment that a program like Tennessee can take.

That’s what I keep coming back to whenever I think about how much time Butch Jones has left in Knoxville. The competition is too good, the stadium is too big and the stakes are too high for the Vols to be mocked by the college football world.

It’s not just about saying weird things in press conferences. If you’re winning, you can talk about being “Champions of Life” or taking “leadership reps” all you want. Jones is hardly the first coach to drop a bunch of odd clichés.

The problem is that instead of them coming after huge victories, Jones looks like he’s deflecting blame after losses. It makes Jones and the program an easy target for ridicule. That much we know.

Again, there’s only so much embarrassment Tennessee can take. The question is, how much is too much?

Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Before I dig into that pressing question, let’s start with the obvious. Jones did a solid job turning around a 5-win team and at least getting it back to respectability the past couple years. He breathed life into a program that was gasping for air before he arrived. Not everyone could have done that.

But it’s Year 5, and based on the way the Vols played in the first part of 2017, they’re about a billion leadership reps away from sniffing that SEC East crown.

So let’s look at the scenarios that could result in Jones’ firing.

Blowout home loss to South Carolina

Goodbye, Buuuuutch, it’s been niiiiiiiiice, hope you find your paradiiiiiiiise …

OK, that was a little mean. But the point is, Jones is not surviving another complete meltdown at Neyland. If Jones’ team can’t muster a decent effort after a bye week against South Carolina, when is it ever going to happen?

Losing 41-0 to a team like Georgia is one thing. Getting blown out at home by South Carolina team that’s missing its top playmaker would be a new low. Falling to 0-3 in SEC play with an ugly loss to Will Muschamp — a guy Tennessee fans are used to hating on — would bring a new level of boos to Neyland.

So in a way, Jones is coaching for his job Saturday.

Nail-biter loss to South Carolina

That’s a coin flip. It would still be 0-3 in SEC play, which essentially eliminates Tennessee from getting to a conference title game. I tend to lean on the “fire him” side because I think if the Vols can’t beat the Gamecocks at home, there’s only so much improvement that Jones can actually point to.

But at the same time, I could see athletic director John Currie not wanting to rock the boat before a trip to Alabama. That could lead to a new level of embarrassment if the program is in even more disarray. Currie might not have a choice if South Carolina spoils yet another Saturday afternoon in Knoxville.

Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Beat South Carolina, lose to Alabama

I actually think Jones would survive that scenario even if the Tide stomped all over the Vols in Tuscaloosa. Alabama is never anyone’s last straw. It’s simply not fair. The notion that a coach would need to beat Nick Saban in order to save his job is crazy, especially for a program that lost 27 consecutive games against top-10 teams the past 11 seasons.

The Vols will likely be 4-touchdown underdogs at Alabama no matter what happens against South Carolina. Even if Saban hangs triple digits on Tennessee, Jones at least gets another week.

Beat South Carolina, lose to Alabama, lose to Kentucky

Goodbye, Buuuuutch, it’s been niiiiiiiiice …

Sorry. I’ll stop.

You can’t lose to Kentucky if you’re Tennessee. I don’t care that Mark Stoops has that program in the right direction. Jones can heap praise on the Wildcats all he wants, but he won’t have a hot seat to sit on if he loses that one.

How does this thing play out?

I don’t think Jones gets fired after a win unless Tennessee has a UMass repeat against Southern Mississippi on homecoming weekend. That, of course, would require him lasting another four weeks. At this point, I can’t see that happening.

My gut tells me that Jones keeps his job at least until that Kentucky game. I don’t think the Vols get blown out again this weekend, and as previously stated, I don’t believe an Alabama loss is worthy of axing Jones or anybody.

Can Jones get some desperation victories against South Carolina and Kentucky to stick around a bit longer? Sure. With the exception of the Alabama game, Tennessee actually has a very favorable schedule the rest of the way.

But I keep picturing a frustrated Jones with his head down on the sidelines after a loss to Kentucky. That could be the lasting image we see of Jones in Knoxville.

Well, that or the trash can.