Rece Davis is a big fan of Tennessee's Final Four chances, but one question still faces the Vols
Rece Davis is not shy about his appreciation for this year’s Tennessee basketball team. However, the Vols still have one big question mark hanging over their heads ahead of the SEC Basketball Tournament and Selection Sunday.
During a Wednesday appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show,” Davis handicapped the upcoming field for the NCAA Tournament and admitted he believes UConn is the best team in the country. However, he went in-depth on why he likes Tennessee with Rick Barnes’ program gunning for the final No. 1 seed in the field.
“A team I really, really like is Tennessee. They won the SEC outright, they got beat at home by Kentucky last Saturday, but they’ve got this dude Dalton Knecht who transferred in from Northern Colorado. He hung 40 on Kentucky this past weekend,” Davis explained. “He’s done that routinely… He gives Tennessee a little something they haven’t had in the past. I think this is a real opportunity for Tennesse to go to the final four.”
“I think UConn is the best team in the country..
I really like that Tennessee team and Dalton Knecht” ~ @ReceDavis #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/drouxRuKPz
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) March 13, 2024
Tennessee has just 3 losses since Jan. 13, and the Vols have not lost back-to-back games since November. Even with the loss to the Wildcats to dampen the end of the season, the Vols will be a trendy pick when brackets roll out. Fans can track the latest odds for the postseason with SDS’s Tennessee online sports betting links.
Area of concern for the Vols
The one area Tennessee has struggled in during losses has been on the offensive side of the ball. During a home loss to South Carolina, the Vols managed just 59 points while shooting 24% from 3-point range.
Similar issues plagued the team in a road loss to Texas A&M when they shot 28% from deep and scored 69 points. And sure, Knecht dropped 40 on the Wildcats, but that outburst overshadowed an otherwise stagnant performance.
Without Knecht’s shooting, Tennessee finished that loss 6-for-21 (29%) from 3-point range against Kentucky. If you remove Zakai Zeigler’s 4-for-11 performance, Tennessee’s output drops even lower with Zeigler and Knecht combining for 57 of the Vols’ 81 points.
Those issues are also reflected in KenPom‘s adjusted offensive efficiency. Tennessee does rank 5th nationally in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, but a lot of that rests on the Vols’ defense ranking 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
When it comes to the offensive side of the ball, Tennessee is just 24th in adjusted efficiency. That is the second-worst mark for any team in KenPom’s top 10, finishing just ahead of North Carolina’s 26th adjusted offensive efficiency. (The Tar Heels are 8th overall in adjusted efficiency margin.)
Why is that number concerning? Mainly because it means the Vols will not win the national championship.
If you think that sounds drastic, I strongly urge you to revisit the recent history of national champions.
Last season, UConn cut down the nets as the No. 1 team in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin with a top-10 mark in both offensive and defensive efficiency. During Kansas’ run to the 2022 national title, the Jayhawks ranked 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
In fact, in the past 8 NCAA Tournaments, just 1 national champion finished with an adjusted offensive efficiency outside of the top 6. That distinction belongs to North Carolina in 2017 when the Tar Heels finished 9th in the metric.
To find a national champion outside of the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency, you have to go all the way back to UConn in 2014. That season, the Huskies finished 39th in the metric and 15th nationally in adjusted efficiency margin.
To pull off a national title run, the Huskies rode dynamic point guard Shabazz Napier who averaged 21 points and 4.5 assists while shooting 47% from 3-point range in 6 NCAA Tournament games. That means it can be done, but Tennessee will need Knecht and Zeigler to avoid going cold at the worst time imaginable.
We’ll see if Knecht can add to his magical season with an elite March Madness to get the Vols to their first-ever Final Four.