Who does Florida want to play in the SEC Championship Game?

With a two-game cushion in the SEC East and only conference games remaining against Vanderbilt (3-5, 1-3 SEC) and South Carolina (3-5, 1-5 SEC), Florida has all but locked up a berth in the SEC Championship Game. The Gators don’t get to select their opponent, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a vested interest in the how the SEC West race plays out. The only team eliminated from contention is Auburn (4-4, 1-4 SEC) because the Alabama-LSU winner cannot finish worse than 5-3 in the conference.

LSU (7-0, 4-0 SEC)

• Why the Gators want to play LSU: UF took LSU down to the wire at Death Valley, losing 35-28 on a fake field goal that went for a touchdown. Florida would have to like its chances to come out on top in a rematch on a neutral field. The Gators secondary would be extra motivated to make up for a mistake-filled performance on Oct. 17.
• Why the Gators don’t want to play LSU: Tackling LSU RB Leonard Fournette doesn’t get any easier in the Georgia Dome. Florida struggled to bring down the Heisman Trophy favorite last month. He rushed for 180 yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries.

Ole Miss (7-2, 4-1 SEC)

• Why the Gators want to play Ole Miss: UF defeated Ole Miss 38-10 on Oct. 3. Florida does best against pass-first offenses like the Rebels. The Gators’ pass rush and pass coverage rendered the high-flying Ole Miss offense ineffective.
• Why the Gators don’t want to play Ole Miss: It’s difficult to beat any team twice. This time, Florida would be without QB Will Grier, who had a career game against the Rebels (24-of-29, 271 yards, 4 TD) and would be playing at a neutral Georgia Dome instead of being home in The Swamp. Also, Mississippi has OT Laremy Tunsil, one of the best offensive linemen in college football, back in the lineup. He was suspended for the first meeting.

Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC)

• Why the Gators want to play Alabama: The sentimental reasons are plentiful. When Alabama beat Florida in 2009, the school’s last SEC Championship Game appearance, it signified the changing of the guard in the conference. UF lost the subsequent regular-season contests as well (2010, 2011 and 2014). There’s also the teacher-student matchup of Nick Saban vs. Jim McElwain. Most importantly, and actually on the field, Florida’s pass rush could potentially rattle QB Jake Coker.
• Why the Gators don’t want to play Alabama: Big, bruising backs like Derrick Henry (6-foot-3, 242 pounds) have been difficult for UF defenders to bring down. The Crimson Tide defense has shut down most SEC offenses since the 43-37 loss to Ole Miss, and Treon Harris (44-of-78, 695 yards, 5 TD) is no Chad Kelly (213-of-327, 2856 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT). Saban and defensive coordinator Kirby Smart’s familiarity with McElwain and offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, former Bama play callers, likely would be to Alabama’s advantage.

Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2 SEC)

• Why the Gators want to play Texas A&M: The Aggies defense recently gave up 28 points to the last-place SEC East team, South Carolina. QB Kyler Murray, TAMU’s new starter, is a true freshman and bound to make rookie mistakes.
• Why the Gators don’t want to play Texas A&M: Murray would be the best running quarterback UF has faced since Tennessee’s Joshua Dobbs, who gashed the Gators on the ground (18 carries, 136 yards). DE Myles Garrett (43 tackles, 10 sacks) leads a defensive line that would likely manhandle Florida’s offensive line.

Mississippi State (6-2, 2-2 SEC)

• Why the Gators want to play Mississippi State: The Bulldogs tend to prefer a passing attack with QB Dak Prescott (173-of-260, 2,048 yards, 14 TD, INT)  to the ground game, playing into Florida’s strengths on the defensive line and in the secondary. Defensive coordinator Geoff Collins has plenty of motivation to win the schematic chess match with former boss Dan Mullen, who called it a “lateral move” for Collins to come to Gainesville.
• Why the Gators don’t want to play Mississippi State: Prescott is still an effective running quarterback (72 carries, 371 yards, 7 TD) when Mullen calls upon him, and this makes the defense’s challenge of pressuring him much more difficult than a pocket passer. Most objective observers would probably bet on Mullen to out-gameplan Collins.

Arkansas (4-4, 2-2 SEC)

• Why the Gators want to play Arkansas: Arkansas’ defensive line has had trouble getting to opposing quarterbacks – the Razorbacks are dead-last in the SEC in sacks – which would be a welcome relief for UF’s inexperienced, banged-up offensive line.
• Why the Gators don’t want to play Arkansas: The Hogs have one of the best (and biggest) offensive lines in the country, potentially taking away UF’s pass rush. Behind that line, the coaches seemed to have figured out how to best use QB Brandon Allen (141-of-223, 2034 yards, 15 TD, 5 INT) and RB Alex Collins (166 carries, 960 yards, 12 TD).

Andrew Olson

Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.