Will Ole Miss avoid a letdown at rejuvenated Florida? 3 key matchups to watch
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On a weekend loaded with ranked matchups, perhaps the most intriguing game will come on Saturday afternoon in The Swamp when No. 21 Florida hosts No. 4 Ole Miss.
The 2 programs played a classic a season ago in Oxford, with Kewan Lacy’s memorable 224-yard, 3-touchdown performance helping the Playoff-bound Rebels complete a fourth quarter comeback to defeat a Florida team playing for only pride under interim head coach Billy Gonzales.
Last year’s game carried real venom, at least if you believe social media banter and fans chopping at each other is real life.
Dubbed the “Kiffin Bowl,” Ole Miss took special pride in the win over the Gators given the fact that Florida was deep in pursuit of Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin at the time the game was played. Ole Miss fans were focused on a Playoff push and an earnest, albeit misguided, belief that Kiffin would remain in Oxford.
How 10 months can change things. Let’s sum things up succinctly.
Kiffin spurned Ole Miss and Florida, choosing LSU.
Ole Miss defensive coordinator Pete Golding was promoted to head coach after the Egg Bowl and led Ole Miss to within a drive of the national championship game in the College Football Playoff. Golding is 5-1 as the head man at Ole Miss and one of those wins came against Tulane and their head coach Jon Sumrall, who coached the Green Wave despite already taking the head job at Florida.
Last weekend, Ole Miss quenched 10 months of bloodthirst by defeating Kiffin and LSU at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. The Grove, long a gold standard of genteel southern manners and hospitality, was a revenge-obsessed madhouse.
Meanwhile, the Gators went to Auburn and rolled the Tigers and their first-year head coach, Alex Golesh, on the Plains. Golesh was Auburn’s second choice: their first option was Sumrall, whose wife attended Auburn. Sumrall chose Florida over Auburn, in no small part because Auburn’s athletic director John Cohen tried to force defensive coordinator DJ Durkin down Sumrall’s throat. Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin made no such demands and quickly landed his man, along with offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, who terrorized Durkin’s defense to the tune of 500 yards and 44 points last weekend.
Less than a full year after the “Kiffin Bowl,” there’s a compelling argument that both sides feel better off under coaches that weren’t their first choice.
Ole Miss made a statement of intent in its College Football Playoff semifinal run and returned Trinidad Chambliss, who is among the frontrunners for the Heisman Trophy and, at least in my view, the best quarterback in college football. Golding hasn’t coached a road game yet, but at 5-1 against elite competition he’s proven he’s capable as a CEO and he absolutely out-coached Kiffin on Saturday night in Oxford.
Is it too early to say Pete Golding is poised for long-term success at Ole Miss? Probably.
But the Rebels have one of the nation’s best NIL operations, unprecedented administrative commitment to winning and a coach who seems happy to hire outstanding staffers and let them collaborate. That’s a great formula.
Meanwhile, Sumrall has injected real juice into the program in Gainesville, endearing himself to the fan base with his plainspoken truth telling, intensity, and passion for wearing the colors orange and blue while coaching the team and not Billy Napier’s preferred black.
Florida has made a series of “great on paper” hires since the departure of Urban Meyer, the program’s last championship coach, after the 2010 season.
Will Mushchamp was the best assistant in America at the time, the coach in waiting behind Mack Brown at Texas. Jim McElwain was a trusted Nick Saban lieutenant and elite talent evaluator who had just flipped Colorado State into a 10-win outfit in 2 seasons. Dan Mullen was Meyer’s right-hand man and a constant overachiever at Mississippi State. Billy Napier went 40-12 with 2 conference titles at Louisiana and was widely considered the best Group of 5 candidate at the time of his hire. None of these hires worked long-term at Florida and only Mullen had high-level success, albeit short lived due to his refusal to recruit or shake up his staff, which privileged loyalty over results.
Sumrall, who didn’t hire his friends, recruits relentlessly and has the foresight to delegate when appropriate and not micromanage, appears to have none of the flaws that doomed his predecessors.
Is it too early to say Florida finally found their guy? Yes.
But there’s no question that for the first time in a long time, Florida fans are welcoming a top-10 team into The Swamp with a real sense of anticipation and belief.
That’s not nothing.
Two programs that are happy with where they sit but still striving for more collide on Saturday in a sold-out Swamp.
Here are 3 matchups that will define the football game.
Florida must run the Baugh
This game features arguably the nation’s best quarterback in Ole Miss star Trinidad Chambliss and Florida running back Jadan Baugh. If Kewan Lacy plays, you could argue 2 of the best running backs in the sport are in the building.
Baugh leads the country in missed tackles forced (30) and missed tackle avoidance rate (56.6%), per PFF.
A powerful and violent runner with a devastating jump cut, Baugh reminds scouts of Le’Veon Bell or Marshawn Lynch, and it’s easy to see why in the highlight reel above. He’s incredibly patient and surges through contact, almost always moving the pile forward.
Ole Miss has played quality offenses through 3 games but currently ranks last in the SEC in rushing defense and success rate defense against the run. That’s a rough matchup after a physically bruising affair with LSU a week earlier. Because Ole Miss ranks 13th of 16 teams in the SEC in tackle rate, they’ll simply have to tackle better against the Gators.
Will Golding sell out against the run? DJ Durkin did, daring Florida quarterback Aaron Philo to beat him. The young Florida quarterback obliged him, shaking off an early interception to throw for 204 yards and a touchdown and keep a solid Auburn defense honest throughout the game.
Florida’s perimeter weapons also help: Vernell Brown III and Dallas Wilson are future NFL receivers averaging 18.1 yards per reception this season. If you stack the box to slow Baugh, you lose in the air.
But make no mistake, Florida must run Jadan Baugh effectively to win, because Trinidad Chambliss is going to put points up on the Florida defense, as I’ll explain below.
How many 1 v. 1s do Deuce Alexander and Caleb Odom win against Florida’s shaky secondary?
Florida’s corners had a rough evening against Auburn, and the Gators rank 96th nationally in passing efficiency defense entering Saturday’s game—hardly inspiring when faced with the prospect of slowing Chambliss.
If Chambliss does not have Kewan Lacy, he’s arguably more dangerous as a runner and improviser, too, especially if the Gators don’t bring pressure and simply try to get home with 4, a Brad White staple. Florida ranks 82nd in pressure rate, so Chambliss, who is the best “anticipation thrower” in college football, will have time to decide how to exploit the Florida defense.
What this means is Florida has to slow Chambliss by covering well. If you spy Chambliss, and I expect Florida will — especially if Lacy does not play — the Gators better win 1-v-1s on the boundary and off motion.
Like Charlie Weis Jr. before him, John David Baker likes to isolate playmaking Deuce Alexander on the boundary (60 his 64 pass play snaps this season come on the perimeter) and attack 1 on 1. Alexander is second in the SEC in average depth of target (16.7), behind only Florida’s Wilson, and if isolated on Florida corner Cormani McClain, the young Gators defensive back has to win his share of battles. Otherwise, it’s going to be a long day for the Gators.
The “X factor” could be tight end Caleb Odom, who has played more slot snaps (46) than inline (43) on the season, a smart effort to get him isolated on linebackers in coverage.
Odom is a first-down machine. Seven of his 8 catches have gone for a first down, and the other reception was a touchdown. That’s efficiency! When he gets open, he’s terribly difficult to tackle in space. For Florida to win, its linebackers and safeties have to find him at the line of scrimmage and finish tackles.
Swamp Magic vs. Ole Miss complacency
The best thing to happen to Pete Golding and Ole Miss ahead of this football game? Las Vegas listing the Rebels as a small underdog. If ever there were a way for Pete Golding to get his football team focused after the epic win over LSU, being a road underdog to a program that won just 4 games last season was a gift from the football gods.
You could almost write the Golding mantra all week: “See! We beat LSU and Lane Kiffin, and people still doubt us. No one thinks we’re any good!”
And then Golding confirmed it himself, telling Pat McAfee that he told his team that if “anybody in (the Ole Miss) building is not working their ass off to know that they’re going to play a really good football team that’s really well coached, there’s more wrong with them than I think there is.”
Ole Miss hasn’t won in Gainesville since Eli Manning was its quarterback. That should provide ample motivation.
Still, it’s the ultimate trap game for a reason. Ole Miss is coming off one of the most emotionally charged wins in recent college football memory. The Rebels are entering a venue that, even when Florida is bad, as it has been too often over the past decade-plus, tends to claim a big scalp. Ask Texas, who was stunned as a touchdown favorite with a lopsided loss to a 4-8 Florida team in The Swamp a season ago. Ask Jaxson Dart, whose Playoff hopes ended in tears in the Swamp just 2 autumns ago. There are Ole Miss players who remember that game and that feeling. They know how tough it is to play in a juiced up Swamp, one of the sport’s loudest and most fearsome venues.
Does Swamp magic trump Ole Miss complacency? This is a game where the home stadium and crowd should play a massive role. Florida needs the Swamp. Can Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels come with energy from the jump and silence it?
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Neil Blackmon covers SEC football and basketball for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
