We finally have enough of a body of work to start to consider Heisman Trophy candidates based on what they’ve done and not done relative to their preseason hype.
Accordingly, time to consider a few guys who weren’t on the radar in the preseason — although there are still plenty of obvious candidates who are hanging around.
Frankly, there are some good bargains on the board in terms of a current play on Kalshi. Check out the current market for the Heisman Trophy below:
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Here’s a rundown on the top 5 SEC Heisman candidates:
5. Gunner Stockton, Georgia
- Kalshi market: 5 cents per contract
After 3 easy Georgia wins, there are some pros and some cons in Stockton’s candidacy.
The good news first: Georgia is a good enough team to hang around the thick of the College Football Playoff title hunt all season long. In the SEC, Stockton will face enough legitimate competition to give him a fair share of memorable moments. Also, it’s early, but the numbers are already growing — Stockton has thrown 7 incomplete passes in 3 games, with 9 touchdowns and no picks. So yes, more touchdowns thrown than incompletions. He averages 13 yards per attempt so far.
The bad: Stockton is one cog on an excellent team. This numbers are efficient, but not flashy — he has 583 yards passing so far. Georgia will be in the hunt, but Stockton might need a few particularly big games in league play to make him viable. He’s still not a bad pick at his current value.
4. Jadan Baugh, Florida
- Kalshi market: 4 cents per contract
Definitely one of those not-on-the-radar guys. Florida has a 3-0 start and is actually favored against No. 4 Ole Miss this weekend.
Baugh is a big chunk of why. He is second in the nation in rushing, trailing only Duke’s Nate Sheppard, with 458 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns after 3 games. His 8.48 yards per carry is the best among all rushers with at least 40 rushing attempts so far. His 8 scores ties the national lead, and he’s averaging 13.7 yards per carry in the second half of games.
The question mark on Baugh is Florida. The Gators probably need to make the College Football Playoff to leave Baugh a viable Heisman shot. Running backs aren’t typically the most glamorous candidates, so he needs to be the clear top back in the nation (as he probably has been so far). Given the market, Baugh might be worth a shot, but there are some significant question marks.
3. Kamario Taylor, Mississippi State
- Kalshi market: 12 cents per contract
Mississippi State is a surprising 3-0 and Taylor is a surprising Heisman candidate. He’s actually sitting at fourth in the current race. Taylor has passed for 832 yards and 11 touchdowns against a single interception. He’s fifth nationally in QB rating and ties for second in touchdown passes. He also has significant momentum after a week when he significantly outplayed LaNorris Sellers.
But the problem for Taylor is much the same as the problem for Baugh. In an unforgiving SEC, State could have an 8-4 season, which would be considered shockingly respectable… and it could still be a tick low for what Taylor needs to win the Heisman Trophy. At this point, Taylor looks like a very viable Heisman candidate, but he’s got some heavy lifting to do yet to be strongly considered for the winner’s circle.
2. Arch Manning, Texas
- Kalshi market: 8 cents per contract
The eternal Heisman candidate is just kind of lurking there, much the opposite of Taylor and Baugh, and frankly more like Stockton. The rap on Arch is simple — out of 16 qualifying SEC quarterbacks, he’s 11th in QB rating, right behind John Mateer and Jared Curtis. His 661 passing yards is very okay and his 6.9 yards per passing attempt average is pretty pedestrian.
But the point for Arch is this — he’s the well-known QB of the No. 1 team in the nation. His name recognition is superb and with a win over Ohio State, he has one massive victory to his credit. He’s got more games to win and if his numbers looked a little better, it certainly wouldn’t hurt. But don’t sleep on Manning.
1. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
- Kalshi market: 20 cents per contract
As we predicted in our first installment, Chambliss is now the favorite for the Heisman. In 2 close games, he’s already made a fair number of big plays and provided memorable improvisational moments. Chambliss has plenty of charisma and has 924 passing yards and 7 touchdowns. His QB rating is much higher in the third and fourth quarter than in the first half.
The template is there for Chambliss to follow. Like Cam Newton in his Heisman season, he’s a top QB who seems to be taking an above-average team and making it a championship contender. A CFP spot might be enough for Chambliss to win the Heisman — particularly if Ohio State or Jeremiah Smith stumbles again. He remains the top player in the sport entering the final weekend of September.
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Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
