Maybe Chad Kelly should have left Ole Miss for the NFL Draft after all
Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly had a chance to leave for the draft, but he decided to return to Oxford.
Nobody could have blamed him if he went to the pros a year early. While the Rebels had a lot of ability on the roster, he would be without the services of his best blocker (Laremy Tunsil) and top pass catcher (Laquon Treadwell).
It wasn’t just Tunsil and Treadwell, though. Not only was Tunsil a once-in-a-generation left tackle, but Fahn Cooper — an NFL candidate himself — was gone at right tackle, too. While Treadwell was Kelly’s unquestioned No. 1 in the passing game, Cody Core was a dependable No. 2. He’s also getting paid now.
When asked at Media Days what his goals were for the 2016 season, Kelly didn’t stutter: 15-0. SEC championship. National title.
We’re only two weeks removed from Labor Day, yet all three of those aspirations have been eradicated. Mississippi is 1-2, 0-1 in the league and probably needs to win out just to return to a New Year’s Six bowl game.
Despite holding a 24-3 lead on No. 1 Alabama at home this past Saturday, the Rebs again fell apart to a superior program — they did likewise in the opener on a neutral field against Florida State — and lost 48-43. Currently No. 21 in the Coaches Poll, they are the lone ranked team with two defeats. (They’re No. 23 in the AP Poll, which includes two-loss Oklahoma at No. 25).
Kelly is completing 62.6 percent of his throws and averaging 317.7 yards passing in three games. Terrific numbers, no doubt.
Nevertheless, he’s also been responsible for six turnovers with a quartet of interceptions and a pair of fumbles. Even worse, both of his giveaways in Week 3 resulted in defensive TDs for the opportunistic Crimson Tide.
His supporting cast is deep and talented, but it doesn’t appear to have stars that shined as brightly as Tunsil and Treadwell did. Kelly has been sacked seven times — only Auburn, Georgia and Kentucky have allowed more sacks in the conference. Evan Engram, a tight end, is now his most reliable target.
Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
With Dak Prescott presently starting for the Dallas Cowboys, Kelly might be asking himself “what if?” at this point.
little left to prove
When Kelly arrived at Ole Miss before the 2015 campaign, nobody questioned his skills. But he did have an image problem.
Initially signing with Clemson out of high school, he got himself kicked off the Tigers for the proverbial “conduct detrimental to the team.” After a year at East Mississippi Community College, he ended up in Oxford.
By all accounts, Kelly has matured. The me-first attitude he originally put on display appears to be gone, and he has been embraced wholeheartedly by his Rebels family — “Swag” Kelly they call him. Then he balled out last season, throwing for 4,042 yards and 31 touchdowns. Again, everyone knew he could play.
Therefore, an argument can be made that he had nothing left to prove in college. Kelly was prepared for the next challenge.
It’s not like he was going to get any bigger. Generously listed at 6-foot-2 and 224 pounds, he’s probably closer to 6-1, 215. In terms of size, he’s more like Johnny Manziel than Cam Newton, the two most recent Round 1 QBs from the SEC.
If another year of college wouldn’t make him bigger, would it make him better? He was already the most prolific single-season passer — that includes former No. 1 pick Eli Manning — in Mississippi history. He had already beaten ‘Bama, which features an NFL-level defense. Racking up more stats isn’t necessarily improvement.
No Tunsil. No Treadwell. Teams don’t tend to go from three losses to undefeated after saying goodbye to a couple of legends.
To be clear, he wouldn’t have been considered a premier prospect for the draft had he declared after his junior year. ESPN’s Mel Kiper told Saturday Down South in February that Kelly was a “mid- to late-round guy” at best.
Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
That being said, the aforementioned Prescott didn’t rate highly among scouts, either. He was just a fourth-round selection. Yet there he is, leading America’s Team to a 1-1 start — he’s only playing due to Tony Romo’s injury, of course — with 519 yards passing, 1 touchdown and no turnovers. He’s the future in Big D.
Guarantees in life: death, taxes and a shortage of quarterbacks on Sunday. If Case Keenum can start, so can Kelly.
make-or-break time
Basketball players always go to the NBA early. The longer they’re in college, the more flaws they’ll put on tape.
It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, but Kelly is sort of in the same boat. The NFL knows he can throw. It knows he can run, too. As the nephew of Hall of Famer Jim Kelly, it knows he has the game in his blood.
But what does the film say about Kelly so far in 2016? It shows a dynamic athlete with an electric arm denting the scoreboard early and often when things are going well — just like 2015. But it also shows some questionable decision-making and a rash of turnovers when momentum isn’t necessarily on his side.
With his stated goals for this season already in tatters, the home stretch of Kelly’s college career will be fascinating.
Ole Miss still faces No. 11 Georgia, No. 13 Texas A&M, No. 17 LSU and No. 18 Arkansas. Don’t forget about Memphis, which upset the Rebels a year ago. The Egg Bowl against Mississippi State is an annual crapshoot, as well.
Kelly isn’t going to take Mississippi on some miracle march to the conference championship game. He’d have to run the table in the West, plus the Tide aren’t losing twice — forget about that pipe dream. But after two epic collapses in the span of three weeks, he must get up off the canvas and keep fighting.
If he doesn’t, then coming back for one more walk through The Grove could actually hurt his draft stock, not help it.
John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.
