Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett exceeded most everyone’s expectations in 2014 when he broke Jadeveon Clowney’s SEC freshman sack record.

That’s despite coming off the bench for the first five games. Despite the fact that opponents constantly ran the ball against a soft Aggies defense. And despite the fact that good SEC offensive tackles were able to push Garrett backward at the point of attack.

Oh, and depending on whom you rely for your stats, Garrett had upwards of 30 combined sacks and quarterback hurries last season. ESPN credited him with 37 “quarterback pressures” (hurries plus knockdowns), second in the SEC.

Considering he made 11.5 sacks, mostly against the weakest teams on the schedule, and racked up a lot of near misses, I’m predicting an extra 2 sacks this fall for a total of 13.5.

That’s a half-sack better than Clowney’s best season at South Carolina (2012) and a half-sack better than Mizzou’s Shane Ray (2014), last year’s SEC leader.

Sure, Garrett will face constant double teams this year, which will make it difficult. He had trouble adjusting to that tactic during the middle of last season as opposing coordinators began game-planning around him. Garrett voiced frustration to his coaches when teams took him out of the play as often as possible.

But he’ll be more used to the double teams this year. There are many reasons to believe Garrett is capable of such a tremendous season:

  • The other defensive linemen, Daeshon Hall, Julien Obioha and even Alonzo Williams, are good enough to take advantage of 1-on-1 matchups. So teams may not be able to double-team Garrett all the time.
  • Garrett is a terrific fit for new defensive coordinator John Chavis, who prefers lean, athletic defensive linemen who can get upfield fast. His one-gap, simple, attack-oriented scheme should help maximize the pass rusher’s production.
  • Listed at 6-foot-5 and 255 pounds, Garrett it’s possible may have been even lighter than that at some point last season. Garrett’s burst off the edge will remind Aggies fans of Von Miller (he doesn’t have quite the same bend as the NFL standout, but no one does). He’s got terrific change of direction that gives him an inside counter move. But teams can run at him, and he’s not effective with a bull rush. An entire offseason in an SEC strength program should lead to improvements.
  • If A&M makes even a marginal improvement in run defense, or plays one or two more games with a lead, there will be more prime pass-rush opportunities on third-and-long and in the fourth quarter in desperation time.
  • Garrett did miss one game last season due to injury, so if he stays healthy in 2015, he should get 13 games instead of 12 to generate those sacks, assuming no SEC West title and a bowl appearance.

Tennessee true freshman Derek Barnett is the anti-Garrett. Barnett’s best pass-rush move is the bull rush, and he’s equally adept at corralling ball-carriers in the backfield.

Garrett, though, is the best pure pass rusher in the SEC. If he can equal his 2014 sack production, he’ll be on pace to break into the conference’s all-time top 5 in 2016. (Currently, Florida’s Alex Brown sits in fifth with 33 career sacks.)

NFL.com recently slotted Garrett as the No. 1 edge rusher in the country for 2015:

“Garrett might already be the best pure edge rusher in the country thanks to his upfield burst and destructive inside move. Garrett has cat-quick change of direction to keep him in more plays than the norm and he’s surprisingly difficult to redirect once he starts to turn the corner in his pass rush. He can still be pushed around a bit at the point of attack, but his frame should fill out as he gets older.”

As talented as Garrett is, averaging more than one sack per game isn’t easy at any level of football, much less when he’s facing players like Cam Robinson of Alabama and Laremy Tunsil of Ole Miss all season. But I believe Garrett will lead the SEC with 13.5 sacks in 2015.