Decade of Dominance: Can Nick Saban catch Bobby Bowden for 10-win seasons?

Alabama coach Nick Saban is working on a streak of eight consecutive 10-win seasons. Expect said streak to reach nine Saturday.

The Crimson Tide, 9-0 and No. 1 in every ranking that matters, host Mississippi State at Bryant-Denny Stadium. While the Bulldogs are coming off an upset of then-No. 4 Texas A&M at home, ‘Bama on the road is a different animal altogether.

During his decade of dominance, Saban’s eight-year run of double-digit victories with the Tide is already an SEC record. He broke Steve Spurrier’s mark of six consecutive at Florida from 1993-98. Even Paul “Bear” Bryant topped out at five on the sideline for Big Al, doing so from 1971-75.

The all-time standard (14) belongs to Florida State legend Bobby Bowden, who won at least 10 games every year from 1987-2000.

The college football landscape has changed since then. What used to be an 11-game regular season at the FBS level is now 12. Most conferences have a championship game. More games, of course, leads to increased opportunities to accumulate Ws.

That being said, Saban’s SEC is unquestionably more competitive now than Bowden’s ACC — FSU joined the league in 1992 — was then. If Saban reaches nine straight in Week 11, he’ll more than double some proud programs. Georgia (2002-05), LSU (2010-2013), Tennessee (1995-98) and Texas A&M (1991-94) have never done better than four.

The only thing stopping Saban from breaking Bowden’s record is himself. He’d have to keep it up through the 2022 campaign.

Having just turned 65, Saban would be 71 if he got to 15 straight. Coincidentally, Bowden was also 71 back in 2000, the last season of his run. But only once in nine tries did Bowden win 10 games after his streak ended.

It remains to be seen if Saban will stick around the Yellowhammer State long enough to make it to a full decade-and-a-half of 10-win seasons. Previously, he never held any job — not as an assistant, not as a head coach — more than five years. When he was hired in 2007, few envisioned him even staying this long.

One thing’s for certain: Saban is more likely to retire than have his club fall out of the national spotlight, like Bowden’s eventually did.

“As one who was fortunate enough to cover Paul Bryant in the last half of his career and Nick Saban’s decade at Alabama, I believe that a characteristic common to both — and the most important characteristic — is having a steadfast belief in how to win and convincing everyone in the program, assistant coaches and players, that it is the right way so that the plan is implemented,” Kirk McNair told Saturday Down South. McNair covers Alabama for Scout.com.

“In great part,” McNair continued, “it is because of the care taken in hiring those assistants and recruiting those players who will fit the plan.”

‘It’s all about The Process’

Saban has sent a stunning amount of players to the pros, some of them generational talents. There’s seemingly always another blue-chipper waiting in the wings, though. Defections from his ever-expanding coaching tree are weathered, too.

“It’s all about ‘the process.’ You hear it all the time when referencing Alabama and Nick Saban,” said Andrew Bone, who covers the Crimson Tide for Rivals.com. “It’s recruiting, coaching, practice, offseason workouts, discipline, etc. Alabama loses players to the NFL Draft every year. Most think it will cause a drop-off in production on the field. It doesn’t. It’s next man up, and most of the time the next man turns into an All-SEC or All-American. Alabama loses coaches. It’s next coach up. Every person has to buy into the system — players, coaches, support staff, training staff, everyone. Alabama is a well-oiled machine.

“Many try to duplicate what Alabama does. But at the end of the day, there is only one Nick Saban. He demands perfection and excellence in every facet of the program. He tends to get it. He demands a lot out of his coaching staff time-wise, but he’s usually the first to get to work and the last to leave. It sets an example for everyone.”

The collection of four-and five-star studs up and down the roster is breathtaking. According to the composite rankings at 247Sports, Saban has inked the No. 1 class in America on National Signing Day each of the past six Februarys. That’s a lot of wiggle room — much more than anyone else — to absorb the periodic swing-and-miss.

“Obviously, recruiting has been a huge part of his success at Alabama,” said Travis Reier, who covers ‘Bama for 247Sports. “That being said, I don’t think the player development program he has in place is talked about enough. It’s amazing to see how much guys transform in a year, much less two or three years down the road.”

Nevertheless, an argument can be made that Bowden’s 14-year streak was harder to attain based on the environment at the time.

A 10-win season is more common today than it was during the ’80s and ’90s, and much more so when compared to the Bryant era. In 1958, his first year at Alabama, Bryant coached 10 games. From 1959-69? Eleven. From 1970-82? Twelve.

For Bowden, the 12-game schedule wasn’t implemented across the country until after his streak was in the rearview mirror. The inaugural ACC Championship Game — Bowden won the first installment, of course — didn’t kick off until 2005. That’s two fewer chances to add to the win column and get to double digits.

From 1987-2000, Bowden coached an average of 12.3 games per season. From 2008-15, Saban coached an average of 13.8.

“It’s made even more impressive by the fact that it was much harder to win 10 games during the late-1980s and 1990s,” said Tim Linafelt, who covers Florida State for Seminoles.com. “Not only did FSU win at least 10 games in every year from 1987-2000, but FSU also never lost more than twice in a given season during that stretch.

“By that standard, Alabama’s streak sits at five, as the Tide went 10-3 in 2010.”

More games, but tougher games

In terms of percent of games won, it’s just about a dead heat. Bowden went 152-19-1 for a winning percentage of .887 over that 14-year stretch. Saban went 98-12 for a winning percentage of .891 in the eight seasons before this one. He’s now 107-12 (.899).

However, what perhaps tips the scales in Saban’s favor is the strength of his conference. The SEC — in particular the West division, where Alabama resides — has beat up on the rest of the Power 5 throughout his tenure. LSU, Florida and Auburn have all won national championships since he first filled his closet with crimson.

Factor in four rings for Saban in the past seven years, and the league has captured eight of the past 10 national titles.

So many teams take a step back after winning it all. Senior leaders are out of eligibility. Elite juniors leave early for the NFL. Saban’s teams, conversely, somehow continue to get better every year.

“Bobby Bowden had a remarkable record, but it was achieved partly when Florida State was an independent and partly when playing in what was a much weaker than now ACC,” McNair said. “Winning 10 or more games every year when playing in the SEC is a different challenge.

“Still, who would bet against Saban? Alabama followers believe that the 2017 Crimson Tide will be better than this year’s team, which is solidly No. 1, and there is no sign that either Saban or recruiting is slowing down.”

After winning the BCS title in 2007, LSU dropped to eight and nine wins the following two seasons, respectively. Florida won two championships in 2006 and 2008 yet fielded an eight-win team in 2010 and a seven-win team in 2011. Most head-scratching, Auburn finished No. 1 in 2010 but completely imploded to 3-9 come 2012.

“I never want to discredit Bobby Bowden because he is one of the best coaches in college football history, but I think the consistency coach Saban has established in Tuscaloosa is more impressive in the last nine years than the 14 years for coach Bowden given the state of the SEC — especially the SEC West — during the course of his tenure in Tuscaloosa,” Bone said. “Alabama has been in the running for the national championship in late November every year since 2008. Every program tends to give Alabama its best shot. It’s the game circled on everyone’s calendar.

“Coach Saban has put together eight straight 10-win seasons in Tuscaloosa. He continues to haul in the best recruiting classes in the country. It’s probably just a matter of how long will he remain in Tuscaloosa. He will break the record if he stays for the duration. The Alabama train, especially in recruiting, doesn’t look like it will slow down any time soon.”

Saban isn’t just winning 10 games, either. He’s won 11 (once), 12 (three times), 13 (once) and 14 (twice).

“It’s attainable for a couple of reasons, the main one being that there’s a good chance his teams will continue to play 14 or 15 games per season,” Reier said. “In that scenario, one of his ‘bad’ teams could win 10 games without much effort. Really, it’s more of a question of how much longer he wants to coach. Right now, there aren’t any signs of him slowing down.”

Train keeps rolling

Bowden had an “anytime, anywhere” reputation with the Seminoles’ schedule. That’s how he built a powerhouse out of thin air.

When his streak started in 1987, he played then-No. 3 Miami at home, then-No. 6 Auburn on the road and then-No. 5 Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl. But as an independent at the time, there were plenty of East Carolinas and Tulanes, too.

While the ‘Noles became part of the ACC in 1992, they didn’t lose a conference game until a huge upset at then-No. 24 Virginia in 1995. Even though Bowden played the Hurricanes every year of his career in Tallahassee — which no doubt cost him a national title or two — they didn’t join the league until 2004.

Clemson won a national title under Danny Ford but slumped after he left in 1989. Wins against the Dukes and Wake Forests of the world were near automatic at the time.

“This is definitely a fair point and a good reason not to discount what Saban has done, not that anyone reasonably would,” Linafelt said. “The fact of the matter is that there were a few years in which Florida State’s ACC schedule didn’t provide much resistance.

“However, it’s also worth note that Bowden routinely scheduled high-profile non-conference games throughout the ’80s and ’90s. Scheduling Notre Dame in 1993 probably cost FSU an undefeated season, so it’s hardly as if Florida State’s success was built on the backs of weaker competition.”

Saban deserves similar credit. The past five years, the Tide have begun their schedule with neutral-site showdowns against Michigan (2012), Virginia Tech (2013), West Virginia (2014), Wisconsin (2015) and USC (2016) before the SEC slate.

Playing in the West is a week-to-week bloodbath, too. With the exception of Arkansas, the other six programs in the division — even former laughingstock Mississippi State — have all been ranked at least as high as No. 6 since 2014. Far from a pushover, the Razorbacks were in the AP Poll at No. 16 earlier this season.

Auburn first fielded a team in 1892 and claims five national titles. Only once have the Tigers won 10 games in two consecutive seasons.

When Alabama surely takes care of Mississippi State on Saturday, Saban’s streak will go from eight to nine. He’ll extend his SEC record and move that much closer to Bowden. How much further he goes is entirely up to him.

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John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.