Betting Stuff: Trends, stats, and notes to consider ahead of Final Four

The Final Four is here. UConn, Purdue, Alabama, and NC State take the court in Glendale, Arizona, this Saturday to decide who will play for a national championship.

In what has been a remarkable tournament, we have 2 perceived giants left standing in UConn and Purdue. The Huskies have won 10 consecutive NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season, when Dan Hurley’s group won the title as a 4-seed. This postseason, UConn has been measurably better.

But the champs are also joined by a Purdue team that is crushing opponents under the weight of college basketball’s most optimized offense. Zach Edey is averaging 30 points (66% FG, 68% FT) and 16.3 rebounds a game in the NCAA Tournament while the offense around him has knocked down 39% of its 3-pointers.

By and large, the public expects the Huskies and Boilermakers to meet in what would be a wild national championship fight. But the Crimson Tide have already upset a No. 1 seed this tournament. And NC State has won 9 straight dating back to the ACC Tournament.

More madness could certainly still be in store.

Ahead of Saturday’s games (which begin at 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS), here’s a primer of sorts on the upcoming action.

UConn’s unprecedented run

Dan Hurley’s group has stretched its winning streak to 11 games, yes, but the Huskies are also working on an even more impressive streak as they enter the Final Four. They’ve covered 10 consecutive spreads in the NCAA Tournament.

UConn’s 2023 title featured a perfect 6-0 mark against the spread. It opened the 2024 tournament with a 4-0 record against the spread. If UConn defends its title and covers the spread in each of its remaining 2 games, it’ll tie West Virginia for the most consecutive NCAA Tournament ATS wins in the seeding era. (West Virginia did it across a decade.)

And it’s not just that UConn has been covering. It’s that UConn has been safely covering.

The Huskies’ 4 wins so far in the NCAA Tournament have come by an average of 27.8 points. UConn is outscoring its opponents by 45.1 points per 100 possessions. And it is covering by an average of 12.6 points.

Include last year’s run, and UConn’s streak of ATS wins has featured an average margin of 14 points.

Even more impressive? UConn is doing all this while being favored by 15 points on average this postseason.

History is on UConn’s side

In the modern era of the NCAA Tournament (1985-present), the team that entered the Final Four as the favorite to win the title actually did so 20 times. The favorite entering the Final Four advanced to the national championship game 66% of the time.

At ESPN BET, UConn is currently priced at -200 to win the national title. Purdue has the next-best odds at +210.

The Huskies have made the national championship game 5 times in program history. They are 5-0 in those games. They’re also 6-1 in the Final Four.

And in the last 19 tournaments, 1 of the 2 favorites to win the title entering the Final Four went on to do so 18 times.

NC State is the longest long-shot

The Wolfpack entered the NCAA Tournament with +15000 odds to win the national championship at BetMGM.

If they were to upset Purdue in their Final Four matchup on Saturday and then win the national title game, they’d officially set a record for the longest pre-tournament odds to go on to win in the modern era (since 1985).

UConn currently holds that record. The Huskies were +9500 to win the 2014 NCAA Tournament when they made their run as a 7-seed.

BetMGM currently has NC State priced at +1600 to win the title. No team to win a title in the modern era did so with odds longer than +800 at the start of the Final Four.

Favorites in this year’s NCAA Tournament

First Four: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
First Round: 21-11 SU, 18-14 ATS
Second Round: 15-1 SU, 11-5 ATS
Sweet 16: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS
Elite Eight: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Overall: 44-20 SU, 37-27 ATS

At ESPN BET, Purdue is currently a 9.5 favorite over NC State while UConn is an 11.5-point favorite over Alabama. Purdue and UConn are a combined 8-0 against the spread since the start of the tournament.

NC State is in rare air

In the modern era of the NCAA Tournament, only 13 teams (NC State included) have made it to a Final Four after losing 10 or more games prior to the NCAA Tournament.

NC State’s 14 regular-season losses are the most by any of the 13 teams that made it this deep into the tourney. Eight of the previous 12 teams lost in the Final Four.

Four of them advanced to the national championship game — 2014 Kentucky, 2002 Indiana, 1988 Kansas, and 1985 Villanova. Kansas and Villanova are the only 2 teams in the modern era to win an NCAA Tournament after entering the field with double-digit losses.

Points aplenty in UConn-Bama matchup

In 2003, Marquette made the Final Four as a 3-seed. The Golden Eagles had an exceptional offense that season, but a mediocre defense. They ended the year ranked second nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and 109th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Alabama is the first team since to make the Final Four with an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking outside the top 100.

The Golden Eagles lost their Final Four matchup with 2-seed Kansas in a blowout. The Jayhawks, which ended the year with the No. 3 defense according to KenPom, won 94-61.

Alabama has made its run to the Final Four with a similar profile. All gas, no brakes. The Crimson Tide currently sit third in adjusted offensive efficiency and 105th in defensive efficiency.

With Alabama’s style — run in transition, attack the rim, bomb away from 3-point range — points are abundantly available. Overs have hit 27 times this season and in 13 of Alabama’s last 15 games. The Crimson Tide’s first 4 NCAA Tournament games have featured an average of 80 total first-half points.

Meanwhile, UConn has jumped out to huge leads in the first half so far this tournament. The Huskies are averaging 40 points per game in the first half through their first 4 NCAA games and 81 points per game overall.

The point total for Saturday’s contest between UConn and Alabama is set at 161.5 at FanDuel.

Purdue’s revenge

In the modern era of the NCAA Tournament, a 16-seed has beaten a 1-seed only twice.

The 2017-18 Virginia Cavaliers became the first-ever 1-seed to lose in the opening round when UMBC upset the Cavs 74-54 in the 2018 NCAA Tournament. To that point, we’d seen 16-seeds come close to pulling an upset off, but no one had been able to actually cross the finish line. UMBC didn’t just win, it handled Virginia.

Virginia shot 18% from 3, turned it over 7 times, and allowed UMBC to shoot 54% from the field. The Cavaliers were coming off an ACC Tournament championship and had lost only twice during the regular season. UMBC left the program shell-shocked.

At least, that’s what it seemed like at the time. A year later, Virginia ripped through its regular season with a 28-2 record, won 2 overtime games in the NCAA Tournament, and cut down the nets to capture the school’s first-ever national championship.

Purdue is now looking to do the same.

Fairleigh-Dickinson beat the Boilermakers in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament, 63-58. Zach Edey had 21 points and 15 rebounds but Purdue’s shooting around him floundered. Outside of Edey, Purdue shot 29% from the field and missed 21 of its 26 3-pointers.

That loss has served as inspiration for this year’s Purdue squad. The Boilermakers’ 33 wins are already a program record. Edey is still unstoppable in the paint, but this year, he has been flanked by what is college basketball’s second-best 3-point shooting team and the third-best assisting team in the country.

Purdue makes 41% of its 3s and assists on 66% of its shots.

NC State’s 4 opponents thus far have made 28 of their 117 3-pointers (23.9%) and assisted on just 53% of their made baskets.