I gave my thoughts on the Week 10 schedule earlier this week. Here are the games I’m targeting in Week 10.

(As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.)

  • Last week’s record: 4-1
  • Overall season record: 18-19

Army -21.5 vs. Air Force (-105 via ESPN Bet)

I’ve seen a number of folks rushing to back Air Force as a 3-score dog. Two assumptions are being made. The first is that a 20-plus point spread in a game involving service academies is too high. Second, this is a revenge spot for Air Force after last year’s stunning defeat in this game.

To the first point, Army is 2-0 this season as a favorite of at least 20 points. The Black Knights are 6-1 against the spread overall and have beaten the number by a healthy amount throughout the season. Air Force is 0-7 against the spread.

To the second point, one thing is being forgotten. This Air Force team stinks. Per Game on Paper, Army ranks eighth nationally in net adjusted EPA per play. Air Force ranks 126th out of 134 teams. The Falcons have lost 6 straight games, and their only win this season is over FCS Merrimack. The defense is 91st in rushing success rate allowed and 113th in EPA per dropback faced. They’re losing the turnover battle this season and give up touchdowns on 70% of defensive red zone trips.

Army rolls. Possessions will be limited. That’s true. But Air Force has to be able to maximize the chances it does get and there’s been no proof it can do that. And there’s no reason to think they’ll be able to create stops and keep Army off the scoreboard. Against a team that has outscored its competition 156-24 in the first half this season, I’m also not convinced Air Force will be able to just run its stuff all game long.

Navy -10.5 vs. Rice (-112 via DraftKings)

Navy turned it over on both of its opening possessions against Notre Dame last week and finished the game with 7 fumbles. Five of those were recovered by Notre Dame. That 6-turnover game came after 5 weeks of turnover-free football. I view this as a bounceback spot for a good team with a great quarterback. Navy clearly wasn’t capable of taking that large a step up in competition. Rice will be more of what Navy has seen and dominated throughout the year. Rice has just 6 takeaways in 8 games. It also gives up a ton of chunk plays on the ground. And the offense is extremely challenged. Rice has scored more than 20 points in a game only once this season, and it has just 20 points combined over the last 2 weeks.

Vanderbilt +8 at Auburn (-110 via ESPN Bet)

Vanderbilt is the better team. Vanderbilt is the more consistent team. Vanderbilt is the cleaner team. Yet Vanderbilt is a touchdown dog. I thought last week’s BYU-UCF line was strange, and this one caught me as even stranger when it opened. Auburn’s win over Kentucky last week snapped a 7-game losing streak to power conference schools, which took some of the heat off coach Hugh Freeze. But the good vibes probably won’t last. Vanderbilt got 3 interceptions off of Jalen Milroe and Quinn Ewers, and it didn’t give up a single sack in either game against Alabama or Texas. The ‘Dores have an advantage going against the Auburn secondary, and Payton Thorne has done nothing to earn trust in close games. Vanderbilt has done nothing but play in close games this season.

Penn State +3.5 vs. Ohio State (-124 via FanDuel)

Ohio State enters this game floundering a bit on the offensive line. With all the talent in the world at the skill positions, the Buckeyes have suddenly found themselves in a spot where it might not matter how good Jeremiah Smith or Emeka Egbuka are. With Josh Simmons going down at left tackle, his backup struggling heavily and then going down himself, and the prospect of facing one of the nastiest defenses in the country, Ohio State’s ability to run the football is a massive question mark. On the other side, Ohio State has corners that can’t cover right now and a defensive front that has to scheme up pressure rather than just relying on blue-chip talent to win 1-on-1s.

James Franklin finds himself backed into a corner. If he doesn’t win this game, there will be those who question if he ever can win this caliber of game. Penn State is at home, and the uncertainty at quarterback might actually work in the Nittany Lions’ favor. Drew Allar isn’t a statue in the pocket, but he doesn’t offer what backup Beau Pribula does from a running standpoint. That Ohio State has to prepare for both means we could see another situation similar to the Texas A&M-LSU game play out. I did a deep dive into this game here, and my colleague, Spenser Davis, did something similar here. I’ve come away from both feeling good about the Nittany Lions this weekend.