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It’s Champ Week around college football. The regular season is over, and we closed strong. And looking at the teams left standing this upcoming weekend, most of these conference title games look about as we expected in the preseason. Clemson made the ACC game. Georgia and Texas will play for the SEC title. Oregon landed in the Big Ten game. Boise State is in the Mountain West title game. The Big 12 was really the only wild card.
What does that mean for the actual games? Will we see chalk prevail? Every single point spread you’ll see below is within a single touchdown. The market is expecting close games all throughout the weekend.
Here’s what I’m paying attention to in Week 15.
- Last week: 8-4
- 2024 season: 68-56-1
(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)
CUSA Championship: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State -4.5 | Total: 58
The Hilltoppers kicked a 50-yard field goal with 3 seconds remaining to beat Jacksonville State 19-17 at home last weekend. Now the 2 teams will meet again, this time on the Gamecocks’ home field. In the first game on Saturday, Jacksonville State ran over the WKU defense while Western Kentucky threw over the JSU one.
Jax State quarterback Tyler Huff completed just 3 of his 11 passes for 37 yards and an interception before an ankle injury in the third quarter forced him out of the game. Backup Logan Smothers entered and completed 4 of his 6 passes for 62 yards while rushing 5 times for 32 yards. A Nebraska transfer, Smothers started parts of the 2023 season and the opener of the 2024 season for Jacksonville State. He is a career 58.5% passer with 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
Two things stand out. First, Jacksonville State was awful on third downs (2-for-13), a concerning sign after a miserable start to the season on third appeared to be corrected. Over the first 3 games, the Gamecocks converted just 6 of their 34 third-down tries (17.6%). From Sept. 21 through Nov. 23, they converted at a 52.4% clip. The Hilltoppers gave up nearly 8 yards per play on first downs to JSU and still wound up winning on third. If Smothers does indeed take over, do the Gamecocks revert back to their early-season selves? The second is that WKU quarterback Caden Veltkamp had no issue throwing on his Gamecock defense. He completed 28 of his 47 passes for 301 yards. He had completions to 7 different players and was not picked off. Gamecock defenders only got hands on 2 passes all game. Tailback Elijah Young tore the Gamecocks up in the pass game, with 7 receptions for 78 yards and a score.
Normally, I’d roll with the team that lost the first meeting to win the rematch. Considering the differing styles and the lack of clarity surrounding the quarterback position, I like the Hilltoppers again. If they find themselves trailing for whatever reason, they have the ability to climb back into a game in a hurry. When Huff got rolling, Jacksonville State showed an ability to separate. Without him, I don’t know that same ability exists.
Bet Western Kentucky +4.5
Mountain West Championship: UNLV at Boise State
Boise State -4 | Total: 58.5
Another rematch of a regular-season game. Boise State beat UNLV 29-24 in Las Vegas on Oct. 25. Now, the Broncos host the Rebels on the Smurf Turf. The MWC title isn’t just on the table for Boise State; a first-round Playoff bye could be there for the taking as well as a Heisman Trophy for Ashton Jeanty. There’s quite a bit of pressure on the home team. And this UNLV defense has really been the only one all season to hold Jeanty in check.
Remove only the game against the Rebels and Jeanty’s per-carry average this year goes up half a yard. Off a bye week, Jeanty averaged a season-low 3.9 yards per attempt in that game against a swarming defense.
This was the matchup breakdown (via Game on Paper):
UNLV also had 2 fourth-quarter penalties that were absolutely killer — an unsportsmanlike penalty on its left tackle that killed UNLV’s final offensive drive and a holding call on a defensive back with 6:57 to play that extended a Boise State drive after an incompletion on third down. Boise proceeded to run the remaining time off the clock and UNLV never got the ball back.
The Rebels haven’t lost since that game. Against a defense that gives up a ton of chunk plays, I think UNLV quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams can keep his team in it with his dual-threat ability.
Bet UNLV +4
American Athletic Championship: Tulane vs. Army
Tulane -6 | Total: 46
Army rebounded from the Notre Dame loss by beating UTSA 29-24 last weekend. The Roadrunners were more efficient, but they turned it over on a fluke fumble at the end of the first half (leading to an Army field goal in a tied game) and threw 2 interceptions in the fourth quarter. A UTSA receiver fell down in single coverage on the first pick. The second pick was a suspect decision from the UTSA quarterback, throwing into a tight window with 3 men in the area, but the ball bounced off his receiver’s hands and up into the air for an easy interception. That was the difference. Three rather fortuitous turnovers.
Army has struggled to step up in class this season and Tulane will easily be the second-best team the Black Knights have faced all season. Notre Dame rolled right over Army on Nov. 23 and Tulane might be able to do the same. Tulane wants to run. It is one of the most run-heavy teams in the country. And the Green Wave ground game is 23rd nationally in EPA per rushing attempt. Notre Dame went for 273 yards and 5 touchdowns on just 29 carries against Army. Makhi Hughes, on the heels of a 9-carry, 15-yard disaster of a day against Memphis, should regain his form.
This line was sitting around 4 on Monday morning and had surged to 6 points by the end of the day. I like the earlier number better, and will be waiting to see if it comes back down throughout the week.
Lean Tulane -6
Big 12 Championship: Iowa State vs. Arizona State
Arizona State -2 | Total 51
There is arguably no hotter team in college football than Arizona State. The Sun Devils are 10-2 against the spread this year and, in 5 straight ATS wins, have beaten the number by 71 combined points. They surge into the title game after back-to-back wins over Kansas State and BYU followed by a curb-stomping of in-state rival Arizona.
In back-to-back losses to Texas Tech and Kansas last month, Iowa State could not control the ground game and it could not extend drives consistently. Texas Tech tailback Tahj Brooks ran for 122 yards and a score at 4.9 per carry. Kansas tailback Devin Neal ran for 116 yards and 2 scores at 6.4 per carry. Both teams found success running on first down against the Iowa State defense. On the other side, Iowa State went a combined 9-for-28 on third down and faced 14 combined third-and-longs (9-plus yards).
Those are both problem areas against this Arizona State team. Tailback Cam Skattebo is the best player you haven’t heard about yet. He has 1,866 total yards of offense and 19 total touchdowns on the season. He has at least 140 rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 games and looks to have completely shaken off the shoulder issue that forced him to miss the UCF game. If Skattebo gets rolling, Arizona State can control things.
And while the Sun Devils haven’t been a good third-down unit this season, their secondary is active and aggressive. They have 14 interceptions and 59 passes defended, both top-30 marks nationally. If Iowa State falls behind the chains and puts quarterback Rocco Becht in a ton of third-and-longs again, Arizona State is going to make the Cyclones pay. Becht has gotten away with a ton this season; he has 18 turnover-worthy throws but just 8 interceptions.
Bet Arizona State -2
MAC Championship: Ohio vs. Miami (OH)
Miami -2.5 | Total: 44.5
Wait, Ohio State fumbles the Big Ten title game away at the 1-yard-line while not one but two Ohio-based MAC schools get into their title game? Does the winner of the MAC get to add an overly obnoxious “THE” to the front of its school name? Just until Ohio State can slay the big, blue, meany up north?
This figures to be a defensive rock fight between 2 teams that make their opponents earn it. Miami (OH) is giving up just 17.3 points a game this season to rank 11th nationally. Ohio is giving up just 18.7 to rank 17th. When these 2 met in mid-October, explosive plays were nearly impossible to come by and yet there will still 50 points shared between the 2 teams in the game. The RedHawks take explosives away completely. Ohio does well to limit the damage.
The Bobcats never really got a hold of this game in the first meeting. They went 3-and-out on their first 4 possessions and then, trailing 10-0, threw an interception late in the second that led to a Miami touchdown. They trailed 16-0 at half and by as many as 24 points in the second half. For an Ohio team that wants to run the ball and control the clock, that game was over after the first 5 drives. Ohio has won 5 straight since. Quarterback Parker Navarro was awful in the first meeting, but has been really good since, with 3 straight 100-yard rushing performances and a 277-yard passing day on Nov. 13.
Bet Ohio +2.5
SEC Championship: Georgia vs. Texas
Texas -2.5 | Total: 49
I just don’t see it with Texas. The Longhorns tried repeatedly to give the game away in College Station and A&M just didn’t have any interest in taking it. The Aggies got back-to-back turnovers off Texas red zone trips in the third quarter. They saw 7 of their 9 possessions in the game cross midfield. Two of those drives ended in the red zone without points. A third reached the 40 — classified as scoring position — and ended with an interception.
Georgia, meanwhile, continues to look befuddlingly inconsistent. Though perhaps one of the most important pieces necessary for a championship run has fallen into place in recent weeks. Carson Beck has rediscovered his form. The Ole Miss game marked a fourth straight appearance with a turnover for Beck. In the 3 games since — all Georgia wins — Beck has thrown for 941 yards and 11 touchdowns while completing 64% of his throws without a single interception. More impressive, Beck only has 1 turnover-worthy play during the stretch after 17 through Georgia’s first 19 games.
Beck was picked off 3 times in the first meeting with Texas and the Longhorns still got flattened. Texas could do nothing against the Georgia defense that day, averaging 3.4 yards per play while giving up 7 sacks.
Against A&M, star left tackle Kelvin Banks was injured early and spotted on the sideline in the second half in street clothes and a walking boot. If he’s out or limited, and Quinn Ewers faces more pressure like he did in the first meeting, Ewers’ ankle issue becomes a serious concern.
And, despite all that, Texas is a favorite? I don’t buy it.
Bet Georgia +2.5
Sun Belt Championship: Marshall at Louisiana
Louisiana -5.5 | Total: 56.5
Neither defense stops the run and neither wins early downs with much success. Both offenses are top-20 in early-downs EPA. Marshall leans on the ground game to a large extent, and though it hasn’t been super explosive this year, that probably won’t matter against the Louisiana defense. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 133rd in EPA per run faced and 133rd in rushing success rate. Louisiana runs to throw, and the throw game is elite with Ben Woolridge running the show. The 6-foot-3 senior completes 68% of his throws and leads all Sun Belt passers with 8.8 yards per throw. The throw game ranks 10th nationally in EPA per dropback. Marshall’s defensive strength is its secondary, but again, Louisiana runs to set up the throw game. Woolridge is fantastic in play action and has used it on 47% of his dropbacks this year. (Only 2 qualified G5 quarterbacks have used play-action more.) It should be readily available in this game. This looks like it could be a back-and-forth kind of title fight.
Bet over 56.5
Big Ten Championship: Penn State vs. Oregon
Oregon -3.5 | Total: 49.5
Oregon is relentless in the way it attacks defenses. The Ducks trade explosiveness for ruthless efficiency. They’re fourth nationally in passing success rate and 13th nationally in rushing success rate. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has one of the shortest average depths on his passes this season (7 yards, seventh shortest, per PFF) as the pass game is predicated on quick hits to speedy receivers in space. Gabriel has been outstanding on deep throws (95.2 grade), it’s just not a huge part of his diet (10.6% of all attempts). Instead, passes within 9 yards or behind the line of scrimmage make up 63.6% of his attempts.
How does Penn State play this? The money matchup is Penn State’s defense against Oregon’s offense. Is Penn State content to let Oregon dink and dunk and then, when the Ducks get to the red zone and everything tightens, try to force Gabriel into mistakes? Or do they try and commit bodies to disrupt Oregon?
Ohio State’s Will Howard is somewhat similar in that most of his production comes in front of the sticks. He only looked deep on 10.5% of his passes in the regular season, 44.6% of his passes were in the 0-to-9-yard range. Penn State chose to blitz him on 46% of his dropbacks.
The Ducks are the more complete team. The pass rush of Jordan Burch and Matayo Uiagalelei will cause Penn State problems, the PSU receivers don’t jump off the page, and Oregon has the team speed to come up with a functional plan for do-everything tight end Tyler Warren. Penn State’s defense has to win this.
That’s putting a lot on their shoulders. We saw the Nittany Lions produce a defensive score against Ohio State to take a 10-point lead only to lose 20-13. And it’s worth pointing out here that Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki reportedly plans to interview for the open West Virginia job.
Since winning the Big Ten in 2016, James Franklin is 2-14 straight up and 7-9 against the spread as an underdog.
Bet Oregon -3.5
ACC Championship: Clemson vs. SMU
SMU -2.5 | Total: 57
Clemson closed out the regular season ranked 14th nationally in scoring, averaging 36 points a game. The schedule was remarkably kind. Five of the 10 FBS defenses Clemson faced after its opener against Georgia ended the regular season ranked outside the top 100 in Game on Paper’s opponent-adjusted EPA-per-play metric. Three more ranked outside the top 50.
Virginia Tech’s defense ranks 29th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. Clemson scored 24 points against the Hokies and trailed at the half.
South Carolina’s defense ranks 17th. Clemson scored just 14 points against the Gamecocks, turned it over twice, and lost.
SMU’s defense ranks eighth. Now, SMU does not take away explosive pass plays, but it effectively neutralizes everything else. The Mustangs are fourth nationally in EPA per run faced.
Kevin Jennings taking over at quarterback has been a major story in SMU’s run to the ACC title game this season, but the defense fueled the 11-1 season for SMU. Edge rusher Elijah Roberts is third among ACC defenders in total quarterback pressures this season (55). SMU has 3 more players in the top 15. Isaiah Nwokobia, Jonathan McGill, and Ahmaad Moses are 3 of the highest-graded safeties in the conference. SMU generates havoc, wins early downs to set up advantageous third downs, and then punches teams off the field on third.
SMU should be the one dictating things in this game.
Bet SMU -2.5
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
