The Saturday Down South staff is back to give picks for the 10 biggest games of the week in college football. We’ll be picking against the spread all season long and keeping track of progress as we go.
The records through Week 10:
- Derek: 57–42–1
- Ethan: 52–47–1
- Paul: 50–49–1
- Spenser: 45–54–1
Let’s get to it.
(Editor’s note: All odds are via DraftKings. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Florida at No. 5 Texas (-21.5)
Spenser Davis: I just didn’t see enough out of Aidan Warner against Georgia to feel good about Florida covering this number. The Gators have fought hard all year, but there’s only so much you can do with a third-string quarterback. I think Texas covers this. PICK: Texas
Paul Harvey: If DJ Lagway was healthy, I might feel differently about this one. As it is, I don’t see a questionable Lagway giving the Gators enough firepower to keep this one even relatively close on the road. Don’t forget: Even for the disaster that is Carson Beck, the Bulldogs nearly had enough time to cover late against Florida last week. PICK: Texas
Derek Peterson: DJ Lagway is 1 of 6 Florida starters who were listed as questionable on Wednesday’s availability report. The names are important ones for Florida. More than anything, I wonder about the Napier component of this game. Scott Stricklin’s decision to back Napier this week was met with concern. Florida hadn’t picked up a major win, it just hadn’t been blown out by clearly superior teams. And that was enough to buy Napier another year. Can you imagine the firestorm that will be unleashed on Stricklin if, in his first game back out, Napier’s Gators get rolled off the field? My numbers say Florida, but I think we’re going to learn whether this was a move for Stricklin or a move for the locker room. PICK: Florida
Ethan Stone: Florida can do one of 2 things this week. They can respond after their first of many tough games against Georgia, or they can succumb to all the blows they’ve already been dealt. I’m gonna keep the faith in the Gators +21.5 on the road, because they’ve done well in that spot so far this season. PICK: Florida
No. 3 Georgia (-2.5) at No. 16 Ole Miss
SD: As much as I really want to back Ole Miss here, I don’t think what we saw last weekend in Fayetteville was indicative of who Ole Miss really is offensively. I think Georgia will be able to shut off Ole Miss’s explosive plays (like most competent defenses have this season) and limit what the Rebels are able to do there. I also think Carson Beck can play much better than he has over the past few weeks and I expect him to do so in this spot. PICK: Georgia
PH: Georgia is not a lock to cover against lesser competition like some of Kirby Smart’s other teams. But the Bulldogs still show up for the big ones. I keep waiting for Lane Kiffin to pull out all the stops and get the stunner he desperately needs. I just can’t get behind Ole Miss here, as much as that hurts me to say. PICK: Georgia
DP: The Rebels are better than they’ve been given credit for this season. The bad result at Kentucky continues to linger, and that’s understandable. But the best unit on the field at any given point on Saturday will be the Ole Miss defense. That group turns teams one-dimensional, and if Georgia has to rely on Carson Beck’s arm, we’re going to see more of the same from Beck. PICK: Ole Miss
ES: I don’t think I’m allowed to pick Ole Miss over Georgia against what’s essentially a toss-up spread. History is making this pick for me. PICK: Georgia
Michigan at No. 8 Indiana (-14)
SD: This is roughly the same spread that Michigan faced last weekend against No. 1 Oregon. Granted, that game was in Ann Arbor and the Wolverines will be on the road this week in Bloomington. Still, on principle, this is too many points. PICK: Michigan
PH: Michigan has historically dominated Indiana. That’s the only thing Michigan can lean on in this game. Injuries are a problem, and Indiana has shown it can win a variety of ways, including with a suffocating defense. I’ve been on the Cignetti hype train for a while, no reason to slow down now. PICK: Indiana
DP: It’s going to seem like I’m piling on. I don’t mean to. But Michigan continues to get special treatment from the market because, I guess, the brand is big enough. Michigan stinks. And Indiana has dominated every single average-or-worse team it has faced this season. PICK: Indiana
ES: For the past few weeks Indiana fans have heard there isn’t a path to the Playoff without a win over Ohio State. Whether or not that’s true, it feels like folks are just dancing over this one for the Hoosiers. Indiana has beaten Michigan just once since the Reagan administration, folks. The Hoosiers boast the superior squad this year, but I’d be shocked if this thing wasn’t at least within distance for U-M. PICK: Michigan
No. 20 Colorado (-4) at Texas Tech
SD: Colorado is 13-5-1 against the spread in the Deion Sanders era. Texas Tech is coming off of an emotional win last weekend against Iowa State. I’d be surprised if the Red Raiders have enough left in the tank to make this a one-score game. PICK: Colorado
PH: Texas Tech has been very hot or cold this season. Can the Red Raiders double up on emotional wins after taking down Iowa State last week? I’m going with now. PICK: Colorado
DP: Both of these teams have a shot still to make the Big 12 Championship game. Colorado, at 6-2 on the season and No. 20 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, probably has a fringe chance to make it into the CFP. After Tech upset Iowa State a week ago, you wonder if a letdown is coming. More often than not this season, the Red Raiders’ defense has failed to show up. They’ve given up at least 35 points in a game 5 times and in a 1-point win over TCU on Oct. 26, the TCU quarterback threw for 344 yards with a 66% clip. Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter should have big days. PICK: Colorado
ES: This should be a pretty great game between 2 teams I just really don’t know much about. I do know the Red Raiders just knocked off Iowa State, and they’ve played tough against most opponents they’ve faced this season. Tech is also at home in this one, so I’ll take them plus the points. PICK: Texas Tech
South Carolina (-4) at Vanderbilt
SD: I am once again picking against Vanderbilt. I don’t feel great about it. But I think South Carolina showed real, legitimate growth on offense last week vs. Texas A&M and I think Vandy’s O-line will probably be out-matched going up against this South Carolina defensive front. PICK: South Carolina
PH: I can’t pick against Vandy. Just not going to do it after everything we’ve seen this season. PICK: Vanderbilt
DP: I’ve backed Vandy all season. I’ve also believed for most of the year that South Carolina was better than it was being given credit for. I wasn’t high on either of these teams coming into the year and I’ve been wrong on both fronts. For South Carolina, the defense has been outstanding throughout, but last week against Texas A&M saw LaNorris Sellers take a much-needed step. The Gamecocks have juice. PICK: South Carolina
ES: South Carolina draws its power from Williams-Brice Stadium, and it’s about time we respect Vanderbilt. Diego Pavia’s Commodores play an agonizing brand of football, but they don’t turn the ball over. That’s huge in this matchup against a team that forces the most turnovers of any team in the conference. Whichever team wins the turnover margin will take this one, and Vandy has shown all year that it’s going to protect the football. PICK: Vanderbilt
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Mississippi State at No. 7 Tennessee (-24)
SD: Tennessee struggled with Kentucky’s defense last week, but Kentucky’s defense is good. That is not the case for Mississippi State. In fact, the Bulldogs may have the worst defense in all of the Power 4. They rank 130th in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play allowed, per Game on Paper. I think Nico Iamaleava has a huge game and the Vols cover this number comfortably. PICK: Tennessee
PH: Tennessee has not let a loss to Arkansas derail the season, even as the Vols have struggled outside of a win over Alabama. Mississippi State, winless in the SEC, strikes me as a great get-right moment for Josh Heupel’s offense. And a perfect time to tune some things before heading to Athens. PICK: Tennessee
DP: Georgia only won by 10. Texas A&M only won by 10. And then Arkansas covered a 7-point spread by 26. Jeff Lebby has figured out the offense with Michael Van Buren at quarterback. The defense just has so much work to do. PICK: Tennessee
ES: Tennessee’s offense has been mystifying in the first quarter this season. Just a completely different unit. And it is so, so, so very weird. I know Mississippi State’s defense is completely helpless, but I’m not trusting Josh Heupel’s crew to put up big enough numbers in the first half to cover this spread. PICK: Mississippi State
No. 11 Alabama (-3) at No. 15 LSU
SD: LSU has had 2 full weeks to figure out how to defend running quarterbacks after its debacle in the second half against Marcel Reed and Texas A&M. I think Garrett Nussmeier will have a bounce-back performance this week playing at home against an Alabama secondary that has been vulnerable at times this season. PICK: LSU
PH: Alabama’s 2 losses have come on the road in the SEC while LSU is undefeated at home. Still, I just like the offense of the Tide in this one. Surely I can’t get burned picking against Death Valley in primetime… right? PICK: Alabama
DP: Give me the Tigers. PICK: LSU
ES: Those following my bowl projections know I have LSU winning this one. Neither of these teams particularly stands out to me, but both are fighting for a Playoff spot so we could get a lot of good or a lot of bad. I’ll usually trust the home team in these scenarios, but especially so with Death Valley in play. PICK: LSU
Florida State at No. 10 Notre Dame (-26)
SD: This is an absurdly high number for a game with a total of just 42.5 points. Per BetIQ, there have only been 15 such games since 1995 that have a favorite of 26 points or more with a total under 43 points. Typically, the rule of thumb is to take the underdog in spots where the spread is large and the total is low. But under these circumstances, there’s no significant edge on either side of the spread (favorites are 7-8 ATS in this spot historically). I’ll take Notre Dame, as the Irish have much more to fight for at this stage of the season. PICK: Notre Dame
PH: I’m still looking for the line that would lead me to pick FSU. This still ain’t it. PICK: Notre Dame
DP: Florida State is egregiously bad on offense. The Seminoles can’t stop the run. In what will only be their fourth road game of the season, I see a mauling. PICK: Notre Dame
ES: Florida State is dead. It has been for some time. PICK: Notre Dame
Oklahoma (-3) at No. 24 Missouri
SD: This line tells me that Brady Cook isn’t playing, as the Sooners opened up as 4-point underdogs this week. Is Cook worth 7 points against the spread over Drew Pyne? That’s the crucial question here. The answer depends on whether or not you think Pyne can get back to his 2022 form that he showed at Notre Dame when he averaged 8 yards per attempt. Since Mizzou is at home and coming off of a bye week, I think Pyne has a chance to be effective on Saturday. PICK: Mizzou
PH: I know Brady Cook’s status is still up in the air, but I’m still surprised to see OU as a road favorite here. I can’t get on board with that, even acknowledging the letdowns Mizzou has experienced this season. At 6-2, the Tigers still have a lot to play for in my opinion. PICK: Missouri
DP: Mookie Cooper is doubtful. Nate Noel and Brady Cook are both questionable. Deion Burks and Jalil Farooq might be returning to the field for Oklahoma, which has shown more life since the coordinator change. Missouri has absolutely no business being ranked. PICK: Oklahoma
ES: There’s so much disappointment in this matchup, but even so the Tigers are fighting for what little hope they have left of reaching the Playoff. The Sooners have just been so underwhelming against competent opponents, I can’t pick them here. PICK: Mizzou
No. 9 BYU (-3) at Utah
SD: Utah has an excellent defense, which I guess is why this line is so short. I’m not buying it, though. I think the Cougars will roll here. PICK: BYU
PH: I get the rivalry game aspect, so throw the records out a little bit. But BYU has answered the bell consistently this season, including some strong performances on the road all season long. Getting this number at 3, I’ll take the Cougars. PICK: BYU
DP: I don’t trust the throw game from Utah, or the special teams. BYU is a cleaner team. While I do think Utah shows more fight given the rivalry aspect of this game, I’m taking the Cougars. PICK: BYU
ES: This is the one Cougars fans have had circled, even despite the Utes fall from the top 25. But, um, has anyone checked on the Utes after the announcement that Rising was out for the season? Utah hasn’t won a football game since September, and BYU is playing the best football of any team in the Big 12. PICK: BYU
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
