The Saturday Down South staff is back to give picks for every conference championship game on the docket for Week 15.
The records through the end of the regular season:
- Derek: 75–64–1
- Ethan: 68–71–1
- Paul: 68–71–1
- Spenser: 64–75–1
Let’s get to it.
(Editor’s note: All odds are via DraftKings. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (-4.5)
Spenser Davis: Jacksonville State’s quarterback is a game-time decision due to an ankle injury he suffered last week. But I’m going with Jax State anyways because Tre Stewart should be able to run the ball at will against a WKU defense that struggled mightily against the run all season. PICK: Jacksonville State
Paul Harvey: This isn’t the straight light-it-up Hilltoppers program you may be used to. WKU actually finished third in CUSA defensively while giving up 22.2 points per game. They’ll need it facing Jax State’s CUSA-leading offense. PICK: Western Kentucky
Derek Peterson: Jacksonville State quarterback Tyler Huff is a gametime decision after leaving the team’s previous game with an injury. If he’s unavailable, Logan Smothers will re-enter the starting lineup. He began the season as the starter before being replaced by Huff. If Western Kentucky jumps on Jax State (because this WKU pass game has a clear edge), I don’t trust Smothers to make up the difference. If Jacksonville State plays with a lead, I don’t trust the defense to separate. PICK: Western Kentucky
Ethan Stone: It’ll be a trend for my picks this week: It’s tough to beat a team twice. Western Kentucky won by 2 just last week, and I think Jacksonville State will get revenge this time around. PICK: Jacksonville State
UNLV at Boise State (-4.5)
SD: UNLV is the only team all season to hold Ashton Jeanty to under 4 yards per carry. The Runnin’ Rebels have been good against the run all season, but not that good. Maybe lightning strikes twice, but I don’t see it. PICK: Boise State
PH: I know UNLV has been coming on strong, but Boise State has been my top G5 team for the majority of the season. I’m not backing off that with the Playoff on the line. PICK: Boise State
DP: I like UNLV here. It more than held its own in the first meeting. It has been the only defense to slow Ashton Jeanty all year. It has a true dual-threat quarterback who might be able to find some splash plays against a Boise defense that yields too many of them on the ground. And it has revenge on the mind. All the pressure is on Boise State; I wonder if they’re tight early. PICK: UNLV
ES: One team has Ashton Jeanty and the other doesn’t. Sorry, UNLV. PICK: Boise State
Tulane (-4.5) at Army
SD: Army hasn’t faced a top-40 passing attack all season (by efficiency rating). Tulane is top-10. The Green Wave don’t throw it often, but when they do, it typically goes well. Coming off of Army’s performance against Notre Dame, I’m not optimistic about its chances against a Tulane team that’s loaded with talent. PICK: Tulane
PH: Army has the top defense in the AAC (15.1 PPG) with Tulane not far behind (18.4). Both programs are also in the top 5 in the country in time of possession. This could be an epic, and I don’t see it breaking open either way. PICK: Army
DP: Army has not scaled well. The ground defense was shredded by Notre Dame and Tulane has Makhi Hughes to throw at the Black Knights. PICK: Tulane
ES: The safe pick here is Army – I don’t think Tulane has the sheer power that Notre Dame had to overwhelm them at the line of scrimmage. Not to mention they get this one at home and have the points. PICK: Army
Iowa State vs. Arizona State (-1.5)
SD: Cam Skattebo. Cam Skattebo. Cam Skattebo. PICK: Arizona State
PH: Any time I pick against Arizona State, I get burned. Now, with a Playoff spot on the line, I’m not going to get burned again. PICK: Arizona State
DP: I’m rocking with Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils, who are 1 win away from capping a season in which they were picked to finish last in the league with a conference championship. Skattebo has some big plays. The defense forces a turnover. PICK: Arizona State
ES: There’s a reason people are talking about the Sun Devils more in Playoff talks. Arizona State’s confidence cannot be higher heading into this one. PICK: Arizona State
Ohio vs. Miami (OH) (-2)
SD: Miami beat Ohio 30-20 when these teams met back in October, but the game was hardly that close. Miami was up by 24 points with 6 minutes left in the game before the Bobcats added a couple of garbage-time scores. I’ll take the RedHawks. PICK: Miami
PH: Both teams lead the MAC in points allowed per game, but Miami is third in the conference with a plus-4 turnover margin. Ohio rides a -3 mark that is tied for 8th in the league. Give me the RedHawks. PICK: Miami
DP: Ohio’s quarterback is playing well right now and my take on the first game is that Ohio was dead in the water 5 drives in. The Bobcats want to run and dictate things. They opened the first meeting with 4 straight 3-and-outs and then threw a pick to fall into a 17-0 hole. There’s no coming back from that. Not with this style. Miami is another stout defense. I think this will be a much closer game. PICK: Ohio
ES: Tough to beat a team twice. Plus, Ohio has been better at the line of scrimmage this season – I like their odds in a toss-up. PICK: Ohio
Georgia vs. Texas (-3)
SD: Texas has been more consistent, but Georgia has proven that its ceiling is still extremely high. This is a game where it pays to have a high ceiling. Texas has rarely played teams that were good enough to make it pay for its mistakes, but Georgia certainly can – and already has once this season. Moreover, I’m happy to take points with Kirby Smart anytime they’re available. He’s 8-4 ATS as a dog. PICK: Georgia
PH: Texas has the better defense – and the more consistent offense. This game is not a must-win for the Bulldogs, and they’ve been pretty awful ATS this season. PICK: Texas
DP: Texas has had a right tackle issue against the big opponents. Now, it has a left tackle issue as well. Georgia feasted on this Texas offensive line in a way it just hasn’t done consistently this year. That shouldn’t be quickly forgotten. Additionally, Carson Beck was picked off 3 times in the first meeting and Texas still lost by double-digits at home. Beck has been significantly better in recent weeks. At no point this season have I been impressed by Texas. A road win in College Station is nice, but the Texas offense repeatedly tried to give that game away over the final 30 minutes and A&M just refused to take it. I think we get a Kirby Smart special here and Georgia looks like Georgia again. PICK: Georgia
ES: It’s tough to beat a team twice, and Carson Beck struggled mightily in their first matchup. I trust the Longhorns defense more than Georgia’s offense. PICK: Texas
Marshall at Louisiana (-5.5)
SD: Louisiana will have a backup QB in this game, but Chandler Fields has been the guy for a couple weeks now and he’s played great. I also have to wonder about any distractions Marshall may be facing with the reports surrounding Charles Huff and the Southern Miss job. PICK: Louisiana
PH: Louisiana is impressively balanced on both sides of the ball. There will not be any thundering from the Herd in this one. PICK: Louisiana
DP: Give me Louisiana. PICK: Louisiana
ES: Louisiana has the advantage just about everywhere you look, and it battled well against a fringe-Top 25 Tulane squad. I like the Cajuns big in this scenario at home. PICK: Louisiana
Penn State vs. Oregon (-3.5)
SD: I’ve been championing Penn State all season, and the Nittany Lions have largely proven me correct to do so. Their statistical profile is elite in every possible area and their lone blemish is a 7-point loss to maybe the most talented roster in the country. I have real doubts about what Drew Allar can do against elite defenses, but I have no choice but to hold my nose while I make this pick. PICK: Penn State
PH: I don’t think a matchup against the No. 1 team in the country is the moment James Franklin bucks his trend against top-10 opponents. But I do have this game being a touch lower scoring than some might expect, and that could keep this one close deep into the fourth quarter. Still, Dan Lanning’s group has the pieces to put this one out of reach late. PICK: Oregon
DP: Oregon has shown us all season who it is. Penn State has been showing us for years who it is. I think Oregon has the team speed to at least make Tyler Warren work, but no one else on this PSU offense scares me if I’m Oregon. I also trust Dan Lanning in the heat of the moment more than I do James Franklin at this point. PICK: Oregon
ES: Penn State once again has a chance to prove itself against an elite opponent! PICK: Oregon
Clemson vs. SMU (-2)
SD: Clemson has basically done nothing all year against anyone with more than 7 wins. The Tigers are 0-3 in such games while averaging well under 5 yards per play. The defense hasn’t been great either, as Clemson gives up 6.25 yards per play on average to teams with winning records (83rd nationally). I think SMU has some flaws, but frankly this game shouldn’t be close if the Mustangs are anywhere close to as good as their No. 8 ranking. PICK: SMU
PH: I definitely like SMU’s body of work more than I like Clemson’s, but things change in a do-or-die game. Why not roll with chaos to reign one more time before Selection Sunday? PICK: Clemson
DP: Clemson’s offense shrivels up against good defenses and SMU has a great defense. PICK: SMU
ES: Clemson cannot bumble around all year and walk away with the 3-seed. I refuse to believe it. The Tigers have been wildly disappointing in big games this year. Blown out by Georgia, beaten at home by South Carolina, beaten at home by Louisville. Why should I believe they change that trend now? PICK: SMU
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
