Just like last season, the Saturday Down South staff is back to give picks for the 10 biggest games of the week in college football. We’ll be picking against the spread all season long and keeping track of progress as we go.

The records through Week 2:

  • Paul: 11–8–1
  • Ethan: 9–10–1
  • Derek: 8–11–1
  • Spenser: 7–12–1

Let’s get to it.

(Editor’s note: All odds are via DraftKings. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)

No. 20 Arizona at No. 14 Kansas State (-7) 

Spenser Davis: I’m not super high on either of these teams, but I do think Arizona’s offense can be elite. I’m not scared off by a lackluster performance in Week 2 against Northern Arizona. Even though I don’t trust the defense at all, I’ll take Arizona and the points this weekend in Manhattan. PICK: Arizona 

Paul Harvey: Kansas State is coming off a scare in Week 2, but that performance came on the road vs. Tulane. I think returning home is just the right recipe here. Arizona still has plenty of potential to keep key matchups close this year, but a late score lets Kansas State put this one out of reach. PICK: Kansas State  

Derek Peterson: Kansas State is 20-9 against the spread in home games since the start of the 2019 season, but most of the bets in this game are coming in on the other Wildcats. I understand the reasons for concern with Arizona, which has not opened the season cleanly, but I’m also not sure who on Kansas State is going to defend the 6-foot-5 receiver who had 304 yards in the opener. Avery Johnson should hurt Arizona with his legs, but he’s still answering questions as a passer. I think Arizona can do equal damage to a K-State pass defense that just gave up 342 yards through the air to a guy making his second career start. I see a ton of points. I don’t think the market has an accurate gauge of K-State yet, which doesn’t appear to be as good as folks thought it would be in the preseason. PICK: Arizona

Ethan Stone: I started the season very high on Arizona, but I haven’t seen quite what I thought I would against teams they should have steamrolled. Regardless, I love the potential of this Arizona offense. Kansas State’s secondary has quite the task ahead of them and I could see this one going either way, especially being in Manhattan. I’ll stick with my gut and go with Zona to cover. PICK: Arizona 

No. 16 LSU (-7) at South Carolina 

SD: South Carolina’s 31-6 win over Kentucky looks real nice on paper and real flukey when you look under the hood. A 28% success rate is not going to cut it against an SEC team that has a real offense, which LSU very much does. I think LSU wins in dominant fashion. PICK: LSU 

PH: South Carolina gets College GameDay, and fans should enjoy it. Because I’m not sold on the fact that the Gamecocks have some real progress yet. LSU sputtered early against Nicholls but finally found its rhythm, and I think the Tigers hit the gas to open their SEC schedule. PICK: LSU 

DP: LSU had 64 rushing yards in a game against an FCS opponent. A week before the SEC opener, you would have thought the Tigers would have wanted to play bully ball and salt away a game. Instead, they threw it 38 times while the run game sputtered. Through 2 weeks, LSU is 102nd in EPA per rush (game on paper). If the Tigers can’t run on South Carolina, the Gamecocks’ pass rush (10 sacks already) becomes a real factor. Having Harold Perkins spy LaNorris Sellers to take his legs out of the equation might muck things up for Carolina when it has the ball, but there’s a pathway to a cover for the Gamecocks. PICK: South Carolina   

ES: The Gamecocks showed me they aren’t completely helpless against Kentucky, but I’m not forgetting that season opener against Old Dominion. The past aside, LSU is the considerably more talented team in this scenario. South Carolina could make this competitive, but I’ll take LSU by 10. PICK: LSU  

No. 4 Alabama (-16) at Wisconsin 

SD: Alabama’s Week 2 performance against South Florida was a bit concerning if you’re a Tide fan. If South Florida’s offense had been just a little bit better, Alabama would have had a close game on its hands deep into the fourth quarter. But I don’t really trust this Wisconsin offense to exploit Alabama’s weaknesses any better than USF could. PICK: Alabama 

PH: I will take Paul Finebaum’s advice and avoid putting any stock in Alabama’s showing against South Florida. However, I don’t think Wisconsin getting this game in Camp Randall Stadium is receiving enough credit. This pick will either look really brilliant or completely foolish, but I think the Badgers keep it closer than expected. PICK: Wisconsin 

DP: Against Western Michigan in the opener, Wisconsin ran 82 plays and did not produce a single 20-yard gain. Against South Dakota last week, Wisconsin could not get consistent push from the offensive line. Tyler Van Dyke sits outside the top 100 in Total QBR and the run defense is a concern. I’m fading the Badgers against a team that can put 21 points on the board in 7 minutes. PICK: Alabama 

ES: USF is good. Alabama still should have won Week 2 more convincingly, but I don’t think the outlook is too severe for the Tide. This game taking place at Camp Randall makes the line tempting, but I’m still going to pick the Tide by 3 touchdowns. Wisconsin’s run defense is a little suspect to me, and Alabama can exploit that with Milroe under center. PICK: Alabama 

Memphis at Florida State (-6.5) 

SD: What if Florida State isn’t as bad as we think? What if Georgia Tech and Boston College are just pretty good this year? Look, FSU isn’t a good football team relative to preseason expectations, but this staff didn’t just forget how to coach overnight. The Noles are coming off of a bye week and are ready to exorcise some demons against a Memphis team that hasn’t played anyone worthwhile yet. I love the Noles under a touchdown here. PICK: Florida State 

PH: Don’t forget: Memphis has a shot at the CFP this season with the top Group of 5 team getting into the field. It’s also a quality program that has delivered some up-and-coming coaches over the years. Oh, I also don’t trust Mike Norvell right now – and for good reason. PICK: Memphis 

DP: Florida State is 112th nationally in net success rate, per game on paper. In the arena, the Seminoles have been handled. Memphis ranks 31st in the same metric. The Tigers also have a top-20 game control score from ESPN.  Florida State’s defense has been so bad to start, I just can’t trust it against a team with a fourth-year starting quarterback and competent run game. PICK: Memphis

ES: Memphis is another team out of the American that could be a name to watch for the College Football Playoff. If they win this one, they’ll probably be the early team to beat for that spot. But then again, is Florida State worth absolutely anything? This is a fascinating game, so give me Memphis to keep the fun going. PICK: Memphis 

Related: Don’t miss out on the action this college football season. Check out Saturday Down South’s breakdown of all the best sports betting apps on the market in 2024!

No. 24 Boston College at No. 6 Missouri (-16.5) 

SD: I’m in on this Thomas Castellanos/Bill O’Brien partnership that Boston College has cooking. I think Mizzou is good, but this is too many points for the Tigers considering that we haven’t seen their defense play anyone half-decent yet. PICK: Boston College 

PH: Boston College deserves any early-season accolades coming its way for Bill O’Brien’s win over FSU. But I’m not sure we can put as much stock in that win based on what we know about the Seminoles. On the other hand, Mizzou hasn’t really faced stiff competition, but the Tigers also haven’t given up a single point in 2024. PICK: Mizzou 

DP: Boston College is 7-8 against the spread in its last 15 games as a double-digit road dog. And few have gotten off to as good a start as BC quarterback Thomas Castellanos, who ranks third nationally in Total QBR and has the best passing grade of any quarterback in the country from PFF. The chess match between BC’s offense and Missouri’s defense will be worth the price of admission. I’m going to side with the home team, which has yet to give up a point this season, which leads the country in EPA per play allowed, and which leads the country in offensive success rate. PICK: Missouri

ES: I think Boston College is good, and Thomas Castellanos is legit under Bill O’Brien. They’re not good enough to beat a team of Mizzou’s caliber right now. Not yet. Regardless, -16.5 is too large a spread to pick Mizzou here. The Tigers win by 10-14. PICK: Boston College 

Tulane at No. 15 Oklahoma (-13) 

SD: Oklahoma has some real problems on offense. The Sooners have numerous injuries on the offensive line and wide receiver, which has really limited Jackson Arnold’s effectiveness through 2 weeks. With Tennessee on deck, I think the Sooners might try to squeak by Tulane rather than risk further injury for some key players. That means potentially trotting out a fourth-string center and multiple backups at wide receiver. PICK: Tulane 

PH: Oklahoma is coming off a close call against Houston, and the Sooners might even find themselves looking ahead to Tennessee in Week 4. Meanwhile, Tulane is coming off of a spirited loss to Kansas State. The Green Wave knows it can play with the big boys, and they will not be intimidated by OU. PICK: Tulane 

DP: I’m not sure how to feel about this game. Why is the assumption that because Tulane played Kansas State tight at home, it’ll go on the road and do the same a week later against a better team? Tulane lost in heartbreaking fashion, so perhaps this is an emotional letdown spot. Oklahoma, meanwhile, would need to have another dud of a game to not cover this and with Tennessee on deck, coach Brent Venables will want to see his team create some positive momentum. But the equalizer is Oklahoma’s injury situation, which is profound and problematic. Jackson Arnold has yet to find a rhythm. Tulane’s defense might oblige. PICK: Oklahoma   

ES: I can’t take Oklahoma –13 here when Houston had the Sooners on the ropes and Tulane looked capable against a potential playoff team. There’s a real chance Tulane wins here. PICK: Tulane  

No. 9 Oregon (-16.5) at Oregon State 

SD: This number opened at -20.5 before being bet down by the market. I’m still not super worried about the Ducks – although it would be helpful if their offensive line could get healthy quickly. But strictly off of vibes – Oregon State at home hosting this as a nonconference game – I’ll take the Beavers to cover. PICK: Oregon State  

PH: Do you trust Oregon right now? The Ducks are good, but they haven’t looked elite quite yet. Add in the fact this is an in-state rivalry (with added vitriol this season) on the road and I don’t see this one being a blowout. PICK: Oregon State 

DP: To answer Paul’s question, no, I do not trust Oregon at all. The Ducks aren’t finishing drives, they’re not creating enough chunk plays, and they’re not generating anywhere near enough havoc plays on defense. Oregon State is currently 12th nationally in net success rate, per game on paper. At home, the Beavs can make the Ducks work for it. PICK: Oregon State 

ES: Oregon State can absolutely cover here. Oregon looked wildly disappointing to start the season and they head to Corvallis for a rivalry matchup. PICK: Oregon State 

Texas A&M (-3.5) at Florida 

SD: Texas A&M has lost 10 road games in a row. That’s not a typo. The Aggies haven’t won an away game since 2021 when Mike Elko was their defensive coordinator. With Elko back in the building, I think A&M squashes that streak this weekend – with relative ease. PICK: Texas A&M 

PH: I know it may feel like Billy Napier is coaching for his job this week and that could give Florida a bit of extra fire. But it’s also true he’s probably not in this position if he doesn’t give up 41 to Miami in a home shellacking. I don’t think A&M can score 40, but I don’t think the Gators have any real juice to pull from. PICK: Texas A&M 

DP: Rain is in the forecast for Saturday in The Swamp, which means defending the run will be paramount. Neither team has done that particularly well to start the season. I’ll go with the unit I trust to sort its issues out more. PICK: Texas A&M      

ES: Florida needs to hand the ball to DJ Lagway in a bad way. We’ll see how much he’s used Saturday. I don’t think it matters too much for this game though – the Aggies looked competent in Game 2 after a struggle on offense in Game 1 vs. Notre Dame. I think A&M wins by a touchdown. PICK: Texas A&M 

No. 18 Notre Dame (-10) at Purdue 

SD: Notre Dame is more talented, but on principle, I’m not going to back Marcus Freeman as a double-digit road favorite the week after his team lost outright to Northern Illinois. It doesn’t hurt that Purdue is coming off of an early bye, too. PICK: Purdue 

PH: Marcus Freeman’s admission that his program was buying the hype and it played a role in the loss to NIU actually makes a lot of sense. The Fighting Irish still look like the more talented team on paper vs. Purdue, and the focus should return with the season hanging in the balance. This looks like a true get-right moment for Freeman. PICK: Notre Dame 

DP: The Irish offense has me spooked right now. Purdue’s only data point is Indiana State, but 50 passing yards in a game is still impressive in the modern age. The Boilermakers are 13-7-1 against the spread since 2014 with a rest advantage. PICK: Purdue   

ES: I think Notre Dame simply overlooked Northern Illinois. I’m not saying they’re a Playoff team, but I don’t think they’re going to fall off a cliff. That being said, Purdue looked competent to start the year, and they always contend at home in these situations. Notre Dame to win, Purdue to cover. PICK: Purdue  

No. 1 Georgia (-24) at Kentucky 

SD: In some ways, this is a look-ahead spot for Georgia. The Bulldogs have a bye week coming up before facing Alabama in Week 5. They’re being asked to take Kentucky seriously a week after it couldn’t move the ball at all vs. South Carolina at home. But I imagine UGA won’t have trouble getting up for a game against Brock Vandagriff and Jamon Dumas-Johnson – 2 former Bulldogs who are now key players for UK. I think we could even see Kirby Smart leave the starters in for a series or 2 longer in order to prove a point. PICK: Georgia 

PH: It sure looks like we learned a lot about Kentucky with the Wildcats laying an egg to South Carolina in Week 2. This game looked like a potentially close one entering the season. Now? Yeah right. PICK: Georgia  

DP: Dawgs. PICK: Georgia 

ES: I really thought Kentucky would do better against South Carolina, and I’ll be the first to say I was quite wrong. The Wildcats are still trying to figure out the forward pass. Georgia – a team that knows Vandagriff – is going to maul them. PICK: Georgia