ESPN's FPI offers historically grim outlook for Florida's 2024 season after loss to Miami
ESPN’s FPI has notably soured on Florida after the Gators’ blowout home loss to Miami in Week 1.
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a simulation-based predictive metric that ESPN describes as a measure of team strength. ESPN has likened the FPI to the numbers Las Vegas oddsmakers use when setting betting lines.
Ahead of Week 1, the FPI gave Florida a 50% or better win probability in 6 games, including Miami. The Hurricanes’ blowout in The Swamp has changed those numbers drastically.
It’s grim for Billy Napier and the Gators moving forward. The FPI’s projected record for Florida is 4-8 (3.8-8.2). And that’s with the FPI predicting Florida picks up some upsets along the way. Game-by-game, the numbers set up for a historically bad season, the worst since 0-10-1 in 1979.
Florida plays Samford, an FCS school in Week 2. After that, it’s 10 Power 4 opponents, and the FPI does not favor the Gators in any of them.
Here are the FPI’s updated win probability projections for Florida:
- Sept. 7: vs. Samford – 98.7% chance to win
- Sept. 14: vs. Texas A&M – 40.1%
- Sept. 21: at Mississippi State – 39.6%
- Oct. 5: vs. UCF – 42.1%
- Oct. 12: at Tennessee – 12.5%
- Oct. 19: vs. Kentucky – 45.2%
- Nov. 2: vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville) – 5.7%
- Nov. 9: at Texas – 5.3%
- Nov 16: vs. LSU – 39.1%
- Nov. 23: vs. Ole Miss – 20.3%
- Nov. 30: at Florida State – 36.7%
The numbers will change throughout the season, but right now, it’s hard to imagine a worse outlook for Napier. The third-year head coach entered the 2024 season linked to the hot seat after posting an 11-14 record in his first two seasons. Napier’s Gators being dominated on both sides of the ball by a Miami squad also in Year 3 of a rebuild has demoralized the Florida fanbase and led to increased speculation of a coaching change.
While Samford is expected to be a win for Florida, it’s safe to say the Bulldogs won’t be fazed by playing in The Swamp. Samford put up 52 points on UF in Gainesville back in 2021. The Bulldogs are 0-1 on the year after a 38-29 season-opening loss to West Georgia.
If it gets real bad, I wonder if they will let us play in jorts?
1 game in and Florida will never win another game…oh the inhumanity of the fpi.
Well hump when it rains it poors! Being at the swamp last weekend and seeing the product I can’t find maybe 2 wins and those would be big ifs. Hope it works out at Billy shocks the world but I don’t see it . When he had the comments about the fans in the basement it reminded me so much of Jim Mac . Personally I think he is seeing this is not Working and sees 26 million in his future . Hope I am wrong and will show up to each game and support the team ( unlike fake life Gaga) but the writing seems to be on the wall. On the bright side still looking forward to the road trip to miss state with my son .. might only be going now for the catfish and bbq at this point !
8115 fascinating you mention he sees 26M in his future and the possibility he is not so subtly working towards it. Is it possible he *really knew* what he had in Spring and started players like Gumbs, George and waites knowing they would accelerate him to a buyout in a weird case of moral hazard? I hope he’s not like that but it is interesting he started players that were terrible and probably shouldn’t have been on the field.
Someone could even argue as mr truth has that he came in day 1 saying Gator fans would hate him as an extension of this line of thinking
les,
i personally believe he thought he had a better product and has doen what he thinks will work. Sadly it is not working and he now has no choice but to double down and pray a miricale will happen. He is a good man and all but this is about winning and sadly it is not working.
Samford Texas A&M State UCF Kentucky and FSU and even LSU are winnable games
FSU is awful, aTm has no offense, State and its qb are not very good, UCF beat up on NH, Kentucky predictable – Gators win all 6 games
How can FPi project a 4 – 8 record when they only have one game with a winning probability.
Not that these predictions mean squat but still they are projecting 1 – 11
Wonder if gaga has a part time gig with FPI
You are never going to get that elusive Gasparilla bowl trophy at this rate.
You’re never going to mature and stop being an infantile dolt at this rate
Who is going to be your next coach. What a dumpster fire your program has become. Couldn’t happen to a better bunch.
Looks like Billy is heading for the basement.
Going back several months, a few of us said a lot would depend on the offensive line. Well, Barber, Slaughter and George all graded (PFF) over 80 in pass protection. Barber was best in the run game at 67.
Unfortunately, there are five players on an offensive line. Waites received a zero grade for his pass blocking. A zero! How is that even possible? You should get a 10 just for lining up and touching the defender! He was that bad.
I think we’re going to see that Miami is really good this year. But Florida should have been better.
Watch the effort level for the next two weeks.
Very true, they need to figure out how to fix that side of the o-line. I also think that Miami will end up being pretty good this season, but they might have a similar fallout as FSU the following season once Ward goes into the NFL if they don’t get another QB that is effective.
98.7% chance of beating Samford is way too high. 50/50 at best.
those percentages get worse once UK thumps South Carolina this weekend.
Haha- I agree KY should handle SC this weekend. But I am never going to be overly confident about playing Florida. Especially in Gainesville. I’m going to project that Lagway has a good game this weekend and takes over the starting role. He’s the real deal that will make other athletes better around him. And that could be the spark the Gators need. For all of the FPI nonsense, Florida has more talent on their roster than at least half of the teams left on the schedule… Underestimate at your own peril.
Do not underestimate this Florida team and the talent it has. One game does not make a season. Maybe a young talented QB that just needs several games to get rolling will make a huge difference.
1-11 Florida football record for 2024 if, they get lucky and beat Sanford this weekend
Billy Napier will be fired after mississsipi state loss on the way to Gainesville
If they do not fire billy this year, next year this time they will say wait until next year
Definition of insanity is doing the same thing over over and over and expecting different results