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Florida will go on the road to try to even the season series against Kentucky on Wednesday night.Â
Both teams are entering this game off of a high note. The Gators are riding a 3-game winning streak while Kentucky is coming off a big road win over Arkansas in its most recent game.
Let’s break down this matchup between a pair of SEC foes who are both in need of another win in conference play:Â
Florida vs. Kentucky Betting Odds
Spread: Kentucky -6 (DraftKings)
Total: Over/Under 169.5 points (DraftKings)
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Betting trends to know for Florida
Florida is…
- 8-11-1 against the spread
- 1-3 against the spread on the road
- 0-2 against the spread as an underdog
- 3-4 against the spread in SEC games
Betting trends to know for Kentucky
Kentucky is…
- 12-7 against the spread
- 7-5 against the spread at home
- 9-6 against the spread as a favorite
- 4-3 against the spread in SEC games
3 notes for the game
Florida is an elite offensive rebounding team
Florida is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Gators have collected rebounds on over 40% of their missed shots this season, which ranks No. 2 nationally.
Kentucky has been burned by an elite offensive rebounding team once already this season. The Wildcats struggled mightily with Texas A&M’s rebounding efforts, which led to their overtime loss to the Aggies in College Station back on Jan. 13. Texas A&M, who is No. 1 nationally in offensive rebounding rate, corralled 25 offensive rebounds in its win over the Wildcats — good for a rate of over 46% in that game.
Despite playing large lineups, Kentucky is not a very good rebounding team. The Wildcats rank outside of the top-150 in offensive rebounding rate and defensive rebounding rate. UK was able to keep the Gators off the offensive glass in the first matchup between these teams, but I don’t expect that to be the case again.
Kentucky’s Shot Quality
According to data from ShotQuality — which predicts outcomes based on the quality of each shot attempt — Kentucky has been one of the the “luckiest” team in the SEC so far this season. The Wildcats are second only to Ole Miss amongst Power-6 teams in that regard. Overall, Kentucky has won 5 more games so far this season than ShotQuality’s data expected.
Part of the issue is that Kentucky doesn’t take efficient shots often enough. The Wildcats’ “rim and 3 rate” currently sits at 81%, which ranks outside of the top 200 nationally according to ShotQuality. UK takes a lot of midrange shots — it has attempted 313 of what BartTorvik classifies as a “Far 2s” so far this season. Some of Kentucky’s players are pretty good from that range, like Antonio Reeves and Rob Dillingham. But freshmen Justin Edwards, Reed Sheppard and DJ Wagner are all at or below 40% from that area on a decent number of attempts.
The reason why ShotQuality is important is that it can help forecast a regression to the mean before it happens. The Wildcats still have a top 10 offense in the country according to KenPom’s efficiency rating, but ShotQuality tells us that a regression could be coming. That regression may have already started, too — the Wildcats shot just 14-of-43 from 2-point range against a bad Arkansas defense in their last game.
Florida, on the other hand, is due for some slight positive regression. The Gators have won 1 fewer game in reality than their ShotQuality metrics would expect. It’s also worth noting that UF has the No. 3 adjusted offense in the country, per ShotQuality.
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High-tempo game
This should be a back-and-forth, high-scoring game. Not only does this matchup feature a pair of highly-ranked offenses and mediocre defenses, but it should also showcase a high number of possessions.
Both Florida and Kentucky are in the top 20 nationally in tempo, per KenPom. Both offenses average fewer than 16 seconds per offensive possession on the year. Both offenses are also in the top 15 nationally in terms of adjusted efficiency, according to KenPom.
With those factors in mind, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a total near 170 points for this game. When Kentucky and Florida met earlier this season in Gainesville, both teams averaged more than 1 point per possession despite shooting under 30% from 3-point range. The game still finished with a very high score — 87-85 in favor of the Wildcats.
1 pick for this game
Florida +6. I was on Kentucky last week against Arkansas (a game it would have covered if not for a meaningless last-second and-one by the Hogs), but I’m fading the ‘Cats in this spot. I think UK’s offense is overrated and Florida should have a big advantage on the glass in this game. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Gators pull off the outright upset in Lexington.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
