After what has already been a memorable, excitement-filled NCAA Baseball Tournament, the 8 surviving squads are finally ready to go in Omaha.
For the uninitiated, it’s as if the hoops Final Four took place in, say, Butler’s Hinkle Fieldhouse. Which is to say, it’s perfect.
But as the elite 8 become a terrific 2 to battle for the College World Series crown, which teams will be the survivors? Pulling out that cloudy crystal ball, here’s a shot at the answer.
The non-all-SEC bracket
On one side, Cinderella candidate Troy, mildly surprising (and lucky) West Virginia, and the 2 powers, North Carolina and Ole Miss. Yes, those are also the first-game matchups, but this is double-elimination, so it’s not necessarily a guarantee of how things shake down.
Troy has been amazing, but midnight is almost certain to chime on Cinderella. A team that went 17-13 in the Sun Belt can’t go on forever, can it? Catcher Jimmy Janicki is the only Trojan with more than 13 homers (he has 19). They’re not a running team, with 55 steals on the season. A 5.59 ERA doesn’t seem likely to push too far in Omaha, particularly with a staff who get more than a little walk-friendly. Maybe it’ll surprise, but Troy looks unlikely to push much farther.
West Virginia isn’t really in much better shape. The Mountaineers, if they were a cat, used up about 8.8 lives sneaking past a mediocre Kentucky team in their regional before blasting a clearly inferior Cal Poly squad in the supers. Gavin Kelly (.384, 17 homers) is perhaps the best bat in Omaha, and with 115 steals, WVU can manufacture some runs. Starters Maxx Yehl and Chansen Cole each have sub-3 ERAs and plenty of strikeouts. But the pitching depth will likely doom the Mountaineers.
That leaves UNC and Ole Miss. The Rebels will offensively be dependent on their 2 big sluggers, Judd Utermark (.312, 22 homers) and Tristan Bissetta (.277, 23 homers). They’re not base stealers (49 steals) and only hit .264 as a team. The Rebel staff has impressed out of the bullpen and while the top arms aren’t quite as impressive as, say, West Virginia’s, the depth is tangible.
But North Carolina seems like the team able to win in the most ways. It’s a diverse offensive attack, keyed by Owen Hull (.390, 81 RBIs, 17 steals). There are 4 double-digit homer guys and Jake Shaffner (.358, 25 steals) is another great table-setter type. Jason DeCaro is a starting ace and UNC’s bullpen might actually be better than Ole Miss’s. Give the Tar Heels a slight nod over Ole Miss and WVU.
Who will win the College World Series in Omaha? Here’s the latest market from Kalshi. Find out where Kalshi is legal.
The all-SEC bracket
Alabama didn’t make its Omaha run by amassing the most talent, but the key Tide players are playing at their best. Brady Neal (.328, 10 homers) and Justin Lebron have been hot, and on the hill, it’s a solid group peaking at the right time, led by Tyler Fay. The question with Alabama is whether the bats can stay hot or not. This is a team that hits just .258 on the year and has only 2 double-digit homer guys.
Oklahoma had a sub-.500 season in the SEC, but has also gotten hot at the right time. OU allowed more homers than it hit this year, but the Sooners hit .289 and stole 124 bases, so their offense could fare well in the not-particularly-homer-friendly confines in Omaha. There’s a ton of talent in the pitching staff, but they’ve given up a 5.15 ERA on the year and are fairly walk-heavy. While there’s enough pep in the offense and speed on the mound, OU’s pitching may not hold up.
Texas is a team that’s seemingly without a weakness. The Longhorns hit. 298 on the year with 5 double-digit homer guys, with Aidan Robbins and Carson Tinney as 2 of the most dangerous bats in Omaha. They also stole 111 bases, so small-ball can work too. On the mound, they’re electric. Dylan Volantis (10-1, 2.03) is the best pitcher in the nation and closer Sam Cozart (6-0, 1.65, 9 saves) isn’t far behind. In a normal year, Texas would be the decided favorite.
But it’s not a normal year. And even if Volantis gets the best of a Saturday matchup with Georgia, it’s hard to see anybody holding down the Bulldogs for long. They hit .326 with 174 homers and displayed some serious guts in outlasting Mississippi State in the supers. With 7 double-digit homer guys, led by Daniel Jackson’s terror run on pitchers (.396, 31 homers, 86 RBIs, 26 steals), Georgia’s lineup has no weakness — it just keeps turning over. The pitching staff (4.92 ERA) is more good than great, but again, the guts are there. They keep UGA around until the bats explode.
It’s got to be Georgia here, although Texas is certainly capable — and for that matter, so are the other SEC teams. If Alabama can hit and if Oklahoma’s pitchers can stay in the strike zone, any of these teams could win. But Georgia has earned the pick.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
