Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Louisville Cardinals: Preview and best bet
By Adam Spencer
Published:
The undefeated Louisville Cardinals (7-0) head into hostile territory on Wednesday night, traveling to Fayetteville to square off against the Arkansas Razorbacks (5-2) in what promises to be one of the marquee matchups of the ACC/SEC Challenge.
Under first-year head coach Pat Kelsey, Louisville has been absolutely scorching opponents, averaging 96.7 points per game.
The Cardinals are led by a dynamic backcourt tandem featuring senior Ryan Conwell, who’s putting up 20.1 points per game, and freshman sensation Mikel Brown Jr., who’s chipping in 17 points while dishing out a team-high 6 assists per contest.
Meanwhile, Arkansas coach John Calipari is looking to defend his home court at Bud Walton Arena and bounce back from recent struggles. The Razorbacks have leaned heavily on their own freshman phenom, Meleek Thomas, who’s averaging 17.6 points per contest.
This ACC/SEC battle tips off Wednesday, December 3, at 7:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. We’ll break down the betting odds, dive into key matchup advantages, and share our best bet for this game.
Louisville vs. Arkansas Odds
Despite hitting the road for perhaps their biggest test yet, the undefeated Cardinals enter Bud Walton Arena as betting favorites. Oddsmakers have installed a hefty total, reflecting the dynamic offensive capabilities Louisville has flashed all season long.
All odds are via BetMGM.
The betting market clearly respects Louisville’s perfect record, making the Cardinals 3.5-point road favorites. The money line reflects that confidence, with Louisville sitting at -169 while Arkansas checks in as a +140 home underdog. That massive 165.5-point total suggests the books expect fireworks in this one.
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Statistical Breakdown: Louisville vs. Arkansas
This matchup presents a classic tale of 2 different paths to December. Louisville has been absolutely demolishing inferior competition outside of a win over rival Kentucky, while Arkansas has taken its lumps against elite-level opponents:
The Cardinals’ staggering +33.7 point differential screams dominance, but context is everything here.
The reality check comes when you examine strength of schedule. Louisville has only faced a single top-50 opponent, Kentucky, building its pristine record against significantly weaker competition (0.4545 SOS). Arkansas, conversely, has already been through the gauntlet with a much tougher 0.539 strength of schedule. Those 2 Razorbacks losses? Both came against top-25 teams (Michigan State and Duke).
What should give Arkansas backers confidence is the Hogs’ perfect 5-0 home record at Bud Walton Arena. This represents Louisville’s first true road test and its first crack at legitimate high-major competition. Meanwhile, Calipari’s squad has been battle-tested in ways the Cardinals simply haven’t experienced yet this season.
Best Bet: Arkansas +3.5
PICK: Arkansas +3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Home court advantage in college basketball is real, and Bud Walton Arena is no joke. Arkansas sits at a perfect 5-0 at home this season, and Calipari knows how to prepare his team for big moments. The Razorbacks have the athletic ability and defensive principles to give Louisville’s high-octane offense a reality check.
Conwell and Brown haven’t faced the type of physicality and pressure that Arkansas can bring, especially in a hostile road environment. Meanwhile, Meleek Thomas, Darius Acuff Jr. and company have already proven they can perform against elite competition. Getting more than a full possession with the spread feels like found money when backing the team that’s actually been tested against quality opposition.
Take the home underdog and the points in this one.
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
