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It’s a full slate of hoops on tap for Saturday in the SEC. We’ll get 8 games from noon on through 8 p.m. ET, including a top-10 matchup in the morning between No. 4 Alabama and No. 8 Kentucky. Top-10 teams Auburn and Tennessee also head out on the road to face a pair of 14-3 teams in potential upset spots.
Here are 3 wagers I’m making on the Saturday slate.
Kentucky vs. Alabama total points over 178.5 (-115 via FanDuel)
Alabama leads the nation in scoring with 89.5 points per game. Kentucky ranks third, averaging 88.7 points per game. The Crimson Tide rank first in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. The Wildcats are 30th. The Crimson Tide are seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Wildcats are second. This game will be played at a break-neck pace, with 3s coming from all over. Alabama will be looking for a “get right” performance after being handed a double-digit loss as a double-digit favorite last Tuesday — in its own gym no less. And Kentucky will be happy to be back in Rupp Arena after a 2-game road swing. The Wildcats have been a significantly different team when it comes to their offensive efficiency when away from Rupp. They’re averaging 95.1 points per game at home and 77 a game away from Rupp. They have home shooting splits of 52.3% from the field, 38.7% from 3, and 73.9% from the foul line. Away from Rupp, their overall field goal percentage is 11 percentage points worse and their 3-point percentage dips to 32.1%. They also average 21 assists at home compared to 14.2 away from home, and they have fewer turnovers at home. Kentucky’s offensive style stresses even the best of defenses, and Kentucky’s defense leaves plenty to be desired. It put the clamps on a Wade Taylor-less Texas A&M team, but prior to that gave up 90 to Mississippi State, 82 to Georgia, and 100 to Florida. I’m expecting points to be aplenty.
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Auburn -6.5 at Georgia (-105 via FanDuel)
Both BartTorvik and KenPom project a 10-point win for Auburn despite having to face the Bulldogs in Athens. Bruce Pearl has the best team in America. It’s a group that boasts the No. 1 offense in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency ratings, a top-15 defense, and 9 Quad 1 victories already. The Tigers are battle-tested, and they’re coming off a 22-point drubbing of an outstanding Mississippi State team without Johni Broome. Georgia is unbeaten at home this season (11-0) and has already upset 3 ranked opponents inside Stegeman Coliseum, but Auburn is equally wonderful on the road (8-1). In a 19-point loss to Tennessee on Wednesday, Georgia was held to just 56 points. In a 12-point loss to Ole Miss on Jan. 4, Georgia was held to just 51 points. Both were on the road, but turnovers were a major issue in both. Georgia gave the basketball away 15 times in the loss to the Rebels and then 19 times in the loss to the Vols. Beating the press was an adventure. Against a ruthlessly efficient Auburn offense, Georgia can’t afford to give away possessions.
Missouri -5.5 vs. Arkansas (-115 via FanDuel)
The Razorbacks have lost 4 straight to begin league play. They’d been held under 70 points in each of the first 3 games before falling 78-74 to LSU on the road on Tuesday. They’re 4-12-1 ATS this season and now will face a Missouri team that is 13-0 at home to begin the year. Mizzou has already knocked off Kansas at home and is coming off a 1-point road upset of Florida. The gut here is telling me to fade the hot team that is coming off a massive emotional high and bank on John Calipari’s talent (he still has it, even though the Razorbacks are slumping) to finally click. But the offensive fit is just too clunky for me to think the Razorbacks are in some kind of funk that can just snap in an instant. Arkansas leans on its collection of bigs, but it doesn’t have enough spacing to open things up for them. Johnell Davis was supposed to provide some relief in that regard, but he’s shooting 27.6% from the field in conference play and 26.3% from beyond the arc. This has looked like a group that doesn’t know how it’s supposed to function yet. Missouri should be able to keep its home win streak intact.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
