With college football season now over for all but a handful of teams, it’s a great time to check in on the college basketball futures market.
It’s been an exciting start to the season in college hoops. It’s still early, but Michigan appears to be a dominant team. The Wolverines are far-and-away the No. 1 ranked team on KenPom and BartTorvik.
This piece will examine a few potential futures bets you can make on a variety of sports betting apps. Some picks will also be available on prediction markets such as Kalshi, which is legal in all 50 US states.
College basketball predictions
Here are 3 college basketball futures predictions:
Houston to win the Big 12 regular season title
I think Houston is grossly under-priced at the current market value. The Cougars have had some admittedly-shaky results in non-conference play. Notably, they only beat Auburn by 1, needed overtime to defeat Syracuse and lost to Tennessee. On some level, I do understand the skepticism from the market. But this Houston team is loaded with potential NBA talent and Kelvin Sampson is one of the very best coaches in the nation.
ESPN’s Jeremy Woo unveiled an updated NBA Draft top-100 earlier this week. Houston has 2 players projected to go in the lottery and 4 players ranked in the top-50. I think Houston will catch fire at some point and be squarely in the mix at the top of the Big 12. Beyond this being a bet on the talent, the advanced metrics still point to Houston being a top-10 team nationally. BartTorvik has the Cougars at No. 3 as of this writing — the top team in the Big 12.
Pick: Houston to win the Big 12 (+390 on FanDuel)
Iowa to make the Final Four
Let’s round this out with a long-shot. BetMGM has the Hawkeyes priced at +3000 to make the Final Four. Iowa has one of the very best guards in the entire country in Bennett Stirtz and a coach in Ben McCollum who will be willing to force the issue in March. Last year, Stirtz and McCollum were good enough to upset Mizzou in the first round (and gave Texas Tech a pretty good game in Round 2). Stirtz is probably the best pick-and-roll guard in the country and is a true offensive engine in the half court, which usually translates well in March.
Iowa is already exceeding preseason expectations. The Hawkeyes entered the year ranked just inside the top 50 in KenPom — they’re 20th as of this writing. Iowa’s path to the Final Four is simple. It has an elite offense, it rebounds the basketball at a requisite rate, it makes a ton of 3-pointers and it plays OK defense. At +3000, I see enough to back Iowa making a deep NCAA Tournament run.
Pick: Iowa to make the Final Four (+3000 on BetMGM)
Yaxel Lendeborg to win Naismith Player of the Year
As mentioned above, Michigan looks like far-and-away the best team in college basketball this season. According to KenPom’s adjusted ratings, Michigan is a +37.38 entering the weekend. The next-closest team is Gonzaga at +32.39. That’s a massive gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country. The biggest reason for Michigan’s dominance: forward Yaxel Lendeborg.
Lendeborg is currently averaging over 16 points per game on nearly 60% shooting while also chipping in over 7 boards per contest. He’s also an excellent defender with 3 stocks (steals + blocks) per game. Lendeborg is currently priced at 16 cents to win the Naismith Award on Kalshi. That’s behind BYU’s AJ Dybantsa (17 cents) and Duke’s Cameron Boozer (61 cents).
Boozer and Dybantsa are both more prolific scorers, but I think Lendeborg is being undervalued in this market. He’s a threat to go for 20 and 10 on any given night for the best team in the country. Boozer will certainly put up bigger stats, but I think the individual metrics will be close enough that Michigan’s team success could be enough to give Lendebog the nod.
Pick: Yaxel Lendeborg to win Naismith Player of the Year (16 cents on Kalshi)
Here’s a look at the Naismith Player of the Year market on Kalshi:
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
