How far will Arkansas advance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
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Before John Calipari arrived in Fayetteville, the Arkansas Razorbacks had only won 1 SEC Tournament title (2000) since joining the conference in 1991. After Sunday’s 86-75 victory over Vanderbilt, Calipari has 7 SEC Tournament championships, and the Razorbacks have 2.
While everyone in Arkansas will happily take the SEC crown, Coach Cal and Co. now have their sights set on a bigger prize. They’d essentially repeat their most recent feat — and double their national championship total — if they’re basking beneath the confetti come April 6. As the No. 4 seed in the West region, the Razorbacks’ path to that glory won’t be easy. But when you have Darius Acuff Jr. running the show, you’re going to have a chance against anyone.
Here’s how far Saturday Down South predicts Arkansas will advance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament:
Round 1: No. 13 Hawaii (in Portland)
Record: 24-8 (14-6 Big West); KenPom: +5.97 (108th); NET Rank: 101st
Best Wins: UC Irvine (twice); Worst Loss: Long Beach State
The Rainbow Warriors are dancing for the first time in a decade after defeating UC Irvine 71-64 in the Big West Tournament championship game. The last time Eran Ganot took Hawaii to the NCAA Tournament, he defeated Jaylen Brown’s Cal Golden Bears as a No. 13 seed.
This game being played in Portland does Arkansas no favors. The Razorbacks will have the best player on the court, but the Rainbow Warriors will have the tallest in center Isaac Johnson (7-feet), their leading scorer (14.1 PPG). Hawaii does not light up the scoreboard, ranking 211th on KenPom in offensive rating. Its defensive rating, however, is 43rd-best in the nation and presents a unique challenge to opponents.
The Rainbow Warriors’ defensive strategy could force Darius Acuff — and others — to play more hero ball than Arkansas would prefer. However, Hawaii has not faced an opponent of the Razorbacks’ caliber this year, and went 0-4 in its Quad 2 opportunities. Arkansas’s sixth-rated offense (KenPom) should be able to adapt to and overcome whatever the Rainbow Warriors throw their way.
PREDICTION: Arkansas 83, Hawaii 71
Round 2: No. 5 Wisconsin (in Portland)
Record: 24-10 (14-6 Big Ten); KenPom: +23.39 (22nd); NET Rank: 17th
Best Wins: Michigan, Illinois (twice), Purdue ; Worst Losses: USC, Oregon
Head coach Greg Gard’s team may have the best collection of wins of any non-No. 1 seed. Wisconsin won at Michigan — the Wolverines’ lone Big Ten regular season loss — and at Purdue on Senior Day for Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn, and at Illinois. The Badgers also beat the Fighting Illini on a neutral court in the Big Ten tournament before falling to Michigan on a buzzer-beater in the conference semifinals. High Point is a formidable No. 12 seed, but we’ll say there’s no upset, which sets up a tantalizing affair.
Wisconsin and Arkansas are very similar squads. They both rank top-11 in offensive rating and are separated by just 3 spots in defensive rating (Razorbacks are 48th, Badgers are 51st). Nick Boyd and John Blackwell are capable of posting 30 points on any given night. Wisconsin also has 3 players — Austin Rapp, Nolan Winter (who is returning from injury) and Aleksas Bieliauskas — who stand 6-foot-10 or taller and can knock down 3-pointers, making it imperative that Arkansas defends the arc with vigor.
If the Badgers, who have attempted an average of 32.6 3-pointers per game this year, are connecting from distance, they’re incredibly difficult to beat. Should their potential foe have an off night, the Razorbacks’ own offensive approach will aid their cause. Wisconsin’s penchant for rising to the occasion against high-end opponents, though, leads me to believe the Badgers will upend Arkansas in what could be the most entertaining game of the entire weekend.
PREDICTION: Wisconsin 101, Arkansas 98 (OT)
Will we be proven wrong about the Hogs? Here’s what Kalshi says about Arkansas’s chances of advancing to the Sweet 16:
