Michigan and Arizona will fight for the final spot in the national championship game on Saturday evening.
Long believed to be among the best teams in the country, the Wolverines and Wildcats have both had relatively comfortable journeys to Indianapolis. Both teams won each of their previous 4 NCAA Tournament games by double digits.
Michigan vs. Arizona DFS picks
This story will attempt to identify a couple of picks worth considering on Underdog. Here’s a breakdown:
Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan: Higher than 16.5 points
Taking the high side of the star player’s points projection in a massive game is usually going to be -EV. But in this case, I don’t think the market is properly adjusting for Yaxel Lendeborg’s role increase during the NCAA Tournament. He’s taken 13, 12 and 19 field goal attempts over Michigan’s past 3 games, hitting over 50% of his shots in each game. He also had 14 shot attempts in the Big Ten title game against Purdue. This is a pretty big departure from Lendeborg’s role during the regular season when he averaged under 10 field goal attempts per game in Big Ten play.
Interested in learning more about Underdog? Here’s SDS’s Underdog review, which covers all the pros and cons of the app.
Aday Mara, Michigan: Lower than 6.5 rebounds
This is juiced to 1.05x on Underdog but I’d still like the play at even money. Aday Mara is Michigan’s tallest player, but he’s not its best rebounder. Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. are both excellent on the glass for forwards, so Mara only nabbed about 6 rebounds per game this season. I’m not expecting a huge minutes boost for him in this game, although he could get into the mid-to-high 20s depending on how the game goes (he averaged 22 during the regular season). Unlike most of Michigan’s opponents this year, Arizona also has a giant front court led by a 7-footer. I think the Wildcats will be more than competitive on the glass and do enough to ensure that Mara goes lower than 6.5 rebounds.
Here’s the up-to-date Kalshi market for this game:
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
