Missouri Tigers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: ACC/SEC Challenge Preview and Predictions
By Adam Spencer
Published:
The ACC/SEC Challenge tips off on Tuesday night, featuring matchups between Florida and Duke, North Carolina and Kentucky, and more. However, don’t sleep on the undefeated Missouri Tigers heading into South Bend to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Tipoff for that matchup is set for Tuesday night at 9 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Mizzou is a perfect 8-0 entering this game, but a closer examination of the Tigers’ record shows the most-impressive win is against… Minnesota? Yikes.
The Irish, meanwhile, enter the game with a 5-3 record, but their losses are to Ohio State, Kansas and Houston. It’s safe to say Notre Dame is the more battle-tested team. But while the Irish have played top teams fairly tight (losing by 10 to both Kansas and Houston), their best win is… Rutgers? Again, yikes.
This ACC/SEC Challenge matchup will answer a crucial question: Can Missouri’s high-octane offense maintain its efficiency against a defense that’s been hardened by legitimate competition, or will the Fighting Irish expose the Tigers as early season pretenders?
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Missouri Tigers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds
The betting markets are treating this as essentially a coin flip, with oddsmakers giving Notre Dame the slightest edge as the home team. Here’s how the numbers break down at BetMGM:
Both teams carry identical -110 money line odds, essentially making this a dead heat in the eyes of the books. The 1.5-point spread barely favors Notre Dame as the home squad, while the 146.5-point total suggests we’re in for a track meet, which makes sense given Missouri’s offensive firepower.
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Tale of the Tape: Offensive Juggernaut Meets Battle-Tested Squad
Here’s how the Irish and the Tigers stack up statistically:
Missouri’s offensive efficiency is ridiculous — the Tigers are shooting better than most teams do in practice (55.5% FG, 39.1% from 3) while averaging nearly 17 assists per game. Their +24.8 point differential screams dominance, but that 0.3618 strength of schedule exposes the reality: they’ve been beating up on nobodies.
Notre Dame’s more modest offensive output (75.4 PPG) comes with context — the Irish have been tested by a schedule nearly twice as difficult (0.5463 SOS). The Irish have actually been the better defensive team, allowing just 67.2 points per contest, and they protect the basketball significantly better, with only 10.8 turnovers compared to Missouri’s 13.6. In a game projected to be decided by possessions, that discipline could prove decisive.
Best Bet: Trust the Mizzou offense
Missouri’s offensive explosion has been a thing of beauty, and Mark Mitchell’s 64.4% shooting percentage has been impressive. The Tigers will need to rely on the steady veteran in their first real road test of the season.
The key number here is turnovers. Missouri’s been loose with the basketball (13.6 per game) against inferior competition, while Notre Dame protects possessions like they’re gold (10.8 turnovers). In what projects to be a possession-by-possession battle, that 2.8 turnover differential could be the difference between covering and going home empty-handed.
Still, even if the Tigers don’t reach their ridiculous average of 92.9 points in this game, 75 seems imminently doable, win or lose.
Pick: Mizzou over 74.5 points (+100 at BetMGM)
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
