SEC Basketball
Predicting every game of the 2026 SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament
By Adam Spencer
Published:
Welcome to Nashville, the neon-soaked basketball capital of the South for the next 5 days. The 2026 SEC Tournament is officially here, and we should be in for a doozy at Bridgestone Arena.
We have a reigning national champion in Florida, a John Calipari-led Arkansas team that looks like it’s ready to make another deep March run and several other dangerous squads that will look to move up a couple of seed lines for the NCAA Tournament. The bracket is a minefield, the stars are out, and the bubble is about to burst for a few unfortunate souls.
Here’s a look at the Kalshi market for the SEC Tournament:
Kalshi
Florida
57%
Arkansas
14%
Alabama
12%
Vanderbilt
8%
Tennessee
6%
Georgia
3%
Kentucky
3%
Missouri
3%
Texas A&M
2%
Auburn
1%
And now, here is how I see every single matchup playing out on the road to the Sunday championship.
Wednesday: Round 1
Here are my picks for Round 1 on Wednesday:
Game 1: No. 9 Kentucky vs. No. 16 LSU
- Prediction: Kentucky 84, LSU 68
- Why: Mark Pope’s second season in Lexington hasn’t been a smooth ride, but Otega Oweh and this offense are built for the postseason. LSU has struggled to find an identity all year, and the Wildcats’ spacing will simply be too much for the Tigers to rotate against for 40 minutes.
Game 2: No. 12 Auburn vs. No. 13 Mississippi State
- Prediction: Mississippi State 77, Auburn 74
- Why: This is the “Josh Hubbard Game.” The State guard has been a human flamethrower (22.1 PPG), and while Steven Pearl has done a decent job in his first year on the Auburn bench, the Tigers don’t have a perimeter stopper who can keep Hubbard from getting to his spots in the clutch.
Game 3: No. 10 Texas vs. No. 15 Ole Miss
- Prediction: Texas 81, Ole Miss 70
- Why: Sean Miller and the Longhorns absolutely need to win this game to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Fortunately, Dailyn Swain is a matchup nightmare (17.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG), and Chris Beard’s Rebels have been too inconsistent on the glass to keep this one close late.
Game 4: No. 11 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 South Carolina
- Prediction: Oklahoma 72, South Carolina 66
- Why: Porter Moser’s defense is the ultimate equalizer in a tournament setting. South Carolina’s Meechie Johnson is coming off a buzzer-beater high, but the Sooners’ ability to grind the game to a halt will frustrate the Gamecocks into a cold shooting night.
Thursday: Round 2
Here are my picks for Thursday’s quartet of games:
Game 5: No. 8 Mizzou vs. No. 9 Kentucky
- Prediction: Kentucky 89, Mizzou 85
- Why: Mark Mitchell (17.9 PPG) is going to get his, but Kentucky builds some much-needed momentum with a second win in 2 days. Meanwhile, Mizzou should still be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but going 1-and-done in Nashville will have the Tigers feeling a bit anxious on Selection Sunday.
Game 6: No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Mississippi State
- Prediction: Tennessee 68, Mississippi State 60
- Why: After a frustrating end to the regular season, Ja’Kobi Gillespie and the Vols’ defense will regroup and put the clamps on Josh Hubbard. Expect a physical, hard-nosed game that sets offense back a decade or more.
Game 7: No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 Texas
- Prediction: Georgia 91, Texas 88 (OT)
- Why: This might be the game of the tournament. Mike White has turned Georgia into an offensive juggernaut (90 PPG). Texas will fight, but the Bulldogs’ backcourt is simply too explosive. They’ll find a way to escape in overtime in a Nashville classic.
Game 8: No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Oklahoma
- Prediction: Texas A&M 80, Oklahoma 75
- Why: Did I just say Georgia-Texas would be the game of the tournament? Well, this one could give it a run for its money. I’ll give a slight edge to Texas A&M simply because of the rest factor. But Oklahoma has been dangerous down the stretch.
Friday: Quarterfinals
Here are my picks for the 4 quarterfinal games:
Game 9: No. 1 Florida vs. No. 9 Kentucky
- Prediction: Florida 88, Kentucky 76
- Why: The Gators are the gold standard. Todd Golden has the reigning champions playing with a terrifying level of confidence. Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Thomas Haugh provide a frontcourt trio that Kentucky can’t match physically. The dream of a magical run to the final ends here for Big Blue Nation.
Game 10: No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 5 Tennessee
- Prediction: Tennessee 79, Vanderbilt 75
- Why: Vanderbilt just beat the Vols a few days ago to steal the double-bye, but revenge is a dish best served in Nashville. If Nate Ament returns for this one, I’ll like the Vols even more.
Game 11: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 7 Georgia
- Prediction: Alabama 98, Georgia 90
- Why: If you like points, this is your Super Bowl. Alabama leads the league in scoring (92.0 PPG), and Labaron Philon Jr. is a superstar. Getting snubbed from the list of finalists for the Cousy Award should give him some extra motivation. Georgia can score with anyone, but Nate Oats’ squad has an extra gear in transition that the Bulldogs won’t be able to stay with for the full 40 minutes.
Game 12: No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 6 Texas A&M
- Prediction: Arkansas 94, Texas A&M 83
- Why: Darius Acuff Jr. (22.2 PPG) is the best player in this conference right now. Guards win in March and John Calipari has a great freshman duo in the back court in Acuff and Meleek Thomas. The Hogs’ talent level is just a tier above the Aggies.
Saturday: Semifinals
Now we’re down to the 2 semifinal matchups:
Game 13: No. 1 Florida vs. No. 5 Tennessee
- Prediction: Florida 82, Tennessee 71
- Why: Tennessee’s defense is elite, but Florida’s offense is relentless. The Gators have too many weapons. If you stop Condon, Haugh beats you. If you stop Haugh, Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee light it up from deep. Florida moves on to the final to defend its crown.
Game 14: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Arkansas
- Prediction: Arkansas 91, Alabama 88
- Why: This is the matchup everyone wanted. It’s Nate Oats vs. John Calipari once again. After playing perhaps the best game of the regular season a few weeks ago, the Hogs and Tide provide more fireworks.
Sunday: The Championship
And the winner is…
Game 15: No. 1 Florida vs. No. 3 Arkansas
- Prediction: Florida 86, Arkansas 80
- Why: Arkansas is incredible and should be a nightmare to face in March, but Florida is a machine. The Gators’ experience in big games — having won it all last year — is the ultimate tiebreaker. The Gators are peaking at exactly the right time. Todd Golden’s squad stays composed, Alex Condon dominates the glass, and Florida cuts down the nets in Nashville for the second-straight year.
Tournament MVP: Alex Condon, Florida
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
