Well friends, it is officially Championship Week, and that means the Selection Sunday is less than 1 week away.
And because Selection Sunday is only 6 days away, that means we’re dialing up the frequency of our Bracketology projections here at Saturday Down South.
Until Selection Sunday arrives, I’ll be updating my projections every other day, meaning you can expect revised brackets on the mornings of March 11 and March 13, and then 1 final update about an hour before the bracket is revealed on March 15. And just for the sake of clarity, on March 11 you can expect to see my conference tournament predictions for the ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC, and then on March 13, I’ll be bringing you scenes from the MAC Tournament, as I’ll be in the building for all 4 quarterfinal games this coming Thursday.
Today, however, I want to focus on the bubble, and in particular, what remaining conference tournaments will play a role in shaping the bubble this week. For the teams that are currently living dangerously on both sides of the bubble, the following conference tournaments will be of the utmost importance, as there are potential bid thieves lurking:
- MAC — The most interesting mid-major conference tournament of the week will be played in Cleveland, Ohio, and I’ll be fortunate enough to be there in person to see it all unfold. The Redhawks of Miami (Ohio) completed a perfect regular season in dramatic fashion on Friday night with an overtime road win against the Ohio Bobcats. Conventional wisdom says that a team that starts 31-0, regardless of what conference it is playing in, should make the NCAA Tournament. But if Miami falls in the MAC Tournament, there seem to be serious questions about if the Selection Committee would place the Redhawks in the field, making the MAC a 2-bid league for the first time since 1999.
- Atlantic 10 — The Saint Louis Billikens are in something of a free fall, having gone just 3-3 in their last 6 games, but a 24-1 start with some nice, under the radar wins against the likes of Santa Clara, Grand Canyon, VCU (x2) and Dayton have given Saint Louis enough of a buffer that even if it falls short in the A-10 Tournament, it’ll be safely in the tournament field. This wouldn’t be the preferred outcome among the all teams on the bubble, as there’s a decent chance that the A-10 would remain a 1-bid league if the Billikens claim the tourney title. But thanks to a 13-1 surge since mid-January, the VCU Rams are among the last 4 teams in the field in my latest Bracketology update, complicating matters a little bit. For the defending conference tournament champs not to have to sweat things out on Selection Sunday, they’ll need to earn a second-straight A-10 Tournament Championship.
- American — Including the American Conference — and more importantly, the South Florida Bulls here — is wishful thinking more than anything, if only because USF has been my pet bubble team all year, a squad that I’ve already pegged as a prime 12 over 5 upset candidate regardless of who it is matched up with. In reality, the Bulls will need to win the AAC Tournament for this to have a chance of coming to fruition, but I do believe this team is better than a handful of the last few teams in the mix for an at-large bid.
- Mountain West — Utah State is presently the only MWC team in my Bracketology field, but New Mexico and San Diego State are both looming as legitimate bubble threats. The Lobos and Aztecs are my first 2 teams out of the tournament field, and they could potentially be heading toward a loser-leaves-town semifinal matchup at the Thomas & Mack Center on March 13. But where this could get very complicated is if MWC newbie Grand Canyon, or the getting-hot-at-the-right-time Boise State Broncos throw a monkey wrench into all of this and make a run for the conference crown.
- WCC — The Gonzaga Bulldogs and Saint Mary’s Gaels will safely be in the NCAA Tournament field regardless of how the WCC Tournament unfolds, but either Oregon State or Santa Clara could shrink they bubble by 1 spot if they emerge as the first non Zags/Gaels tournament winner since 2008. Santa Clara is hanging onto its place on the bubble for dear life, and even if the Broncos don’t cut down the nets in Las Vegas, a win over Saint Mary’s in the WCC semifinal would have the Broncos breathing a little easier on Selection Sunday. Depending how things play out around the rest of the country though, a spot in the WCC final may not be good enough for Santa Clara.
The Bracket
Bracketology Breakdown
No. 1 Seeds: Duke Blue Devils (East Region), Michigan Wolverines (Midwest Region), Arizona Wildcats (West Region), Florida Gators (South Region)
Multi-Bid Leagues: Atlantic 10 (2), ACC (8), Big 12 (8), Big East (3), Big Ten (10), SEC (10), WCC (3)
SEC Seeding: Florida (1), Alabama (3), Vanderbilt (5), Arkansas (5), Tennessee (6), Kentucky (7), Georgia (8), Texas (10), Mizzou (10), Texas A&M (11)
Will a team from the SEC win the NCAA Tournament this year? Here’s the latest Kalshi market for the tournament champion:
Bubble Watch
Last 4 Byes:Â Mizzou, UCF, Texas, Texas A&M
Last 4 In: Santa Clara, SMU, VCU, Indiana
First 4 Out: New Mexico, San Diego State, California, Virginia Tech
Next 4 Out:Â Cincinnati, Stanford, Auburn, Oklahoma
Tickets Punched
Tennessee State (OVC), High Point (Big South), Queens (A-Sun), Northern Iowa (MVC), North Dakota State (Summit)
