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College Basketball

Starting 5: How I filled out my NCAA Tournament bracket

Adam Spencer

By Adam Spencer

Published:

Picking winners in the NCAA Tournament is never easy. Picking a perfect bracket is nearly impossible. You’re more likely to be struck by lightning 7-8 times or so than you are to nail every game in the NCAA Tournament.

I say that to hopefully lower your expectations for what follows in this column.

Yes, I consider myself a basketball “expert” on my good days and a basketball “knower” on other days. But, what follows here will not be perfect. Far from it, probably.

Last year, my colleague Connor O’Gara correctly picked Gonzaga, Baylor and Houston to make the Final Four. He also correctly picked Baylor to beat Gonzaga in the final. I, on the other hand, projected Kentucky to make the Final Four prior to the season (yikes) and Illinois to win it all once the brackets were released (double yikes).

But, even Connor agrees his bracket won’t be as good as it was last year this time around. Meanwhile, I’m hoping to bounce back from last year’s debacle.

So, without further ado, here’s a look at who I’m picking in my March Madness bracket:

West

Winner – Gonzaga

Team that can blow up my bracket – Alabama

This seems like a no-brainer to me. Gonzaga is an elite team. Drew Timme is back from a team that cruised to the national championship game last season (before getting crushed by Baylor). Andrew Nembhard is one of the best point guards in the country.

Oh, and the Bulldogs have Chet Holmgren, a 7-footer who is neck-and-neck with Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr. for the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. He does insane things like the first 2 plays in this highlight reel regularly:

I’d honestly be shocked if the Bulldogs didn’t get to the Elite Eight. Yes, Arkansas could be a tough out for the Zags if the Hogs make it that far, but I think Gonzaga has the firepower to outlast Eric Musselman’s feisty squad.

As for the team I’m worried about, it is undoubtedly Alabama. If Rutgers wins the play-in game over Notre Dame, I’m picking the Scarlet Knights to take down the Tide. If the Irish win, I think the Tide make it to the Round of 32.

But, there’s an issue looming over this whole exercise – Alabama has a head-to-head win over Gonzaga on its resume this year. The “A” version of Alabama can make a surprise Final Four run. The problem is that the Tide have more frequently played at a “D” or “F” level, especially lately. Still, I’m nervous to pick any game that has Alabama in it.

South

Winner – Arizona

Team that can blow up my bracket – Loyola-Chicago

I was at the Pac-12 Tournament in Las Vegas over the weekend. The Wildcats were absolutely incredible. Yes, Stanford gave them a scare in the quarterfinals, but Arizona did what good teams do and found a way to win. The final against UCLA was a Final Four-quality matchup.

Bennedict Mathurin is a lottery pick. Azuolas Tubelis might be a lottery pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. Ditto Christian Koloko. Tommy Lloyd is a coach I’m ready to run through a brick wall for after hearing him speak about his team and his staff. The highlights from Mathurin against UCLA show a superstar player doing his thing:

I think Arizona cruises to the South region title in San Antonio. Based on the showing Wildcat fans had in Las Vegas, I’m confident they’ll travel well to give their team an edge in Texas.

On the other hand, the Fighting Sister Jeans worry me. I am picking them to get past Ohio State in Round 1. I’m out on the Buckeyes after they struggled down the stretch and lost to Penn State in their first B1G Tournament game.

But, just how far can the Ramblers go? I have them losing to No. 2 seed Villanova in Round 2. Would it surprise me if they upset the Wildcats? Absolutely not. The Ramblers make me incredibly nervous.

East

Winner – Kentucky

Team that can blow up my bracket – Baylor

Kentucky had this set up very favorably. Purdue hasn’t played defense all year. I’m most worried about No. 4 seed UCLA and No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s in this portion of the bracket. If the Wildcats don’t make it to the Elite Eight, I will honestly be stunned. You’ll see why in a bit.

Yes, Kellan Grady needs to snap out of his shooting slump for this to happen. But, I have confidence he can do that. TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler are healthy. Oscar Tshiebwe is still a monster down low. Keion Brooks, Jacob Toppin and Davion Mintz will have big parts in this postseason.

I think this is one of the most balanced teams John Calipari has had recently. And, it’s one of the most popular teams he’s ever had. Pencil the Wildcats into the Final Four.

Baylor as my bracket buster? How can a No. 1 seed be a bracket buster, you ask? Well, for one, I have the Bears losing in Round 2 to North Carolina. In my opinion, they’re simply too banged up to make a deep run this year. They have a couple of key players out.

But, let’s not forget Scott Drew’s team was ranked No. 1 in the country a couple of weeks earlier this season. That potential is still there. I’m worried I might be underestimating Baylor a little bit heading into this tournament.

Midwest

Winner – Auburn

Team that can blow up my bracket – Colgate

I can see y’all rolling your eyes at my Auburn pick right now. Yes, I understand the season didn’t end the way the Tigers wanted. But, I also feel that Auburn is being undervalued by the masses right now.

This team still has the potential No. 1 overall pick in Jabari Smith. It still has the SEC Defensive Player of the Year in Walker Kessler. Wendell Green Jr. made some insane shots at the end of the Texas A&M loss, so he should be feeling confident heading into March Madness. If Bruce Pearl and company can get KD Johnson’s confidence back up, Auburn still has Final Four potential.

I’m certainly never going to pick Kansas to make it to the Final Four, so I have it down to Auburn and Iowa. Smith vs. Keegan Murray would be quite the battle, and I hope we get to see it. I have the Tigers eking out the win in that matchup, though.

As for a bracket buster? Colgate gave Arkansas a scare last year. This year, the Raiders are still a very tough squad. They play Wisconsin in Round 1. If Johnny Davis isn’t at 100% after suffering an ankle injury against Nebraska in the Big Ten Tournament, Wisconsin is very mediocre. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders make a push for the Sweet 16.

Final Four

Semifinals – Kentucky over Gonzaga, Arizona over Auburn

National championship – Kentucky over Arizona

Do the Wildcats (the Kentucky version) have enough firepower to make it past 2 No. 1 seeds in Gonzaga and Arizona? I’m more worried about the Gonzaga game, as Timme and Holmgren are an absolutely elite tandem in the paint. Oscar Tshiebwe will have his hands full there.

If TyTy Washington can play up to his full potential in the Final Four, though, I think he’s the guy who can carry this Kentucky team to its first national championship since 2012. That would be a fitting end to the year for a very popular group of Wildcats.

It would also be the SEC’s first title winner since that 2012 Kentucky team cut down the nets. Interestingly enough, that year’s Final Four also took place in New Orleans. Is it fate that the Wildcats will be there again? I think so!

Adam Spencer

Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.

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