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It’s almost time for the quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff.
This round will bring 4 teams into the mix who have yet to debut in this year’s CFP: Oregon, Georgia, Boise State and Arizona State. Those 4 teams all earned a first-round bye after winning their respective conference championships. However, 3 of those teams are underdogs in the quarterfinal round while the 4th team (Georgia) is just a slim 1-point favorite.
Here’s 1 key matchup (and prediction) for every quarterfinal contest:
Penn State vs. Boise State matchup and prediction
Matchup to watch: Ashton Jeanty vs. Penn State’s rushing defense
By this point in the season, everyone knows how good Ashton Jeanty is. Jeanty is 90 yards away from passing Melvin Gordon for the most rushing yards in a single season this century. He’s 131 yards away from equaling Barry Sanders’ all-time single season rushing record, which has stood since 1988.
Boise State relies on Jeanty in a way that few other offenses have on a single player in recent history. Jeanty accounts for over 48% of all touches from scrimmage in Boise’s offense this season. In the CFP era, only 2 players have posted a higher usage rate and neither touts a yards-per-touch average higher than Jeanty’s 7.2.
Jeanty is going to get the ball on roughly half of Boise State’s offensive plays, barring a game state that requires Boise to pass the ball more often. The question will be whether or not Penn State can contain Jeanty.
Penn State was excellent against the run this season, albeit without facing anyone quite like Jeanty. The Nittany Lions enter this game ranked 6th nationally in EPA-per-rush allowed, according to Game on Paper.
However, it’s worth noting that running backs for USC, Oregon and Ohio State — the 3 best offenses Penn State faced this year — all found success against the Nittany Lions. Woody Marks rushed for 111 yards. Jordan James and Noah Whittington both cleared the 80-yard threshold during the Big Ten Championship Game. Quinshon Judkins rushed for 95 yards on just 14 carries.
Given the success that other top running backs have had against Penn State this season, I think Jeanty will find some space as well.
PICK: Ashton Jeanty over 125.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
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Texas vs. Arizona State matchup and prediction
Matchup to watch: Texas’s offense vs. Arizona State’s defense
Candidly, this is not the most intriguing matchup in this game — the chess match between Kenny Dillingham’s offense and Pete Kwiatkowski’s defense is. But with regards to the spread and most of the other betting markets in this game, I think this side of the ball is more important to highlight.
On paper, Texas has a massive advantage here. The Longhorns have a great (but not elite) offense while the Arizona State defense took more than its fair share of lumps even through Big 12 play. The Sun Devils enter this game ranked 73rd nationally in EPA-per-play allowed, according to Game on Paper.
Isaiah Bond’s reported return only helps boost the Texas offense. The Longhorns didn’t put up elite numbers on the whole this season offensively, but they’re coming off of a dominant performance against Clemson in the first round. UT averaged nearly 7 yards per play and put up almost 300 yards on the ground in its win over the Tigers. Texas also has the advantage of having one of the premier offensive minds in the sport in head coach Steve Sarkisian.
Tre Wisner and Jaydon Blue have emerged as significant threats out of the backfield. And while Quinn Ewers has, without question, endured a down year, he’s still capable of hurting an opposing defense. Given that Arizona State wasn’t particularly strong against the run or the pass this season, that could spell trouble for the Sun Devils.
Arizona State’s best chance to keep this game close is likely to create some turnovers. Ewers did have a relatively-high turnover-worthy play percentage this season and ASU picked off 15 passes (tied for 20th nationally). But if Texas plays a relatively clean game, it’s tough to see the Sun Devils getting many stops.
PICK: Texas over 32.5 points (-115 via BetMGM)
Ohio State vs. Oregon matchup and prediction
Matchup to watch: Ohio State’s running game vs. Oregon’s defense
Oregon is the lone undefeated team left in the field, but the Ducks are far from perfect. They have 1 major weakness that hasn’t necessarily been talked about enough ahead of this game: their rushing defense.
Oregon will enter this game ranked 110th nationally in EPA-per-rush allowed, according to Game on Paper. That’s really bad! Oregon has allowed 6 different running backs to rush for more than 85 yards this season, and 5 of those managed more than 7.5 yards a clip — including Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson.
Ohio State made a pretty big tactical error in the first matchup against Oregon. It gave Will Howard far too much to do. Howard had 44 touches in that game (35 passes and 9 rushes) while Henderson and Quinshon Judkins combined for just 21 carries.
That’s not the recipe to have if you want to beat Oregon (the Ducks’ secondary is borderline elite). And yet, Ohio State very nearly won the game anyways. If Ohio State comes out with a more appropriate pass/run split for this game, the Buckeyes might be able to separate from Oregon.
Of course, there are 2 sides to this coin. Ohio State really struggled to run the ball over the 2nd half of the regular season. Notably, it averaged 2.1 yards per carry against Nebraska and 3 yards per carry against Michigan as it battled offensive line injuries.
But the Buckeyes are coming off of a strong day on the ground (4.7 yards per carry) against Tennessee. For the season, Ohio State’s rushing success rate ranks 25th nationally, per Game on Paper. Given the bounce-back game against the Vols, I like Ohio State to make Oregon pay on the ground early and often in this one. That could lead to this game being not quite as close as anticipated. Ohio State is currently -2.5 at most shops, but I think it’s worth taking a look at some of the alternate line options.
PICK: Ohio State -7 (+171 via DraftKings)
Notre Dame vs. Georgia matchup and prediction
Matchup to watch: Notre Dame’s offense vs. Georgia’s defense
While a lot of the chatter for this game will revolve around Gunner Stockton’s first start, I think it’s worth taking a deeper look at the other side of the ball in this game.
Notre Dame was good-to-great offensively this season. The Irish have an elite running game and a well-above-average passing game led by Riley Leonard. However, Notre Dame did not face an elite defense during the regular season. The Fighting Irish only played 2 power-conference opponents (Texas A&M and Louisville) who rank in the top 50 nationally in yards per play allowed.
It’s worth noting that Notre Dame did average 5.9 yards per play in its first-round Playoff win over Indiana (3rd nationally in yards per play allowed), but that hardly absolves the Irish of questions going into this game against a Georgia defense that will be loaded with NFL talent.
On the other hand, Georgia has been far from elite on the defensive side of the ball this season. The Bulldogs rank 48th nationally in EPA-per-play allowed this season, according to Game on Paper. That’s not exactly playoff-caliber. Boise and Arizona State are worse, but the other 5 remaining Playoff teams are all better.
We saw Georgia allow over 6 yards per play in 3 of its final 4 regular season games this season, including — shockingly — to UMass. For context to how crazy that is, Georgia didn’t allow anyone — not a single team — to gain 6 yards a snap in 2023.
Still, Georgia’s defensive front is capable of taking over games. We saw it in the SEC Championship Game against Texas when the Bulldogs held UT to 5.3 yards per play and forced 3 turnovers.
Even with the uncertainty around the QB spot for the Bulldogs, this particular matchup could have an out-sized impact on who wins this game. I lean toward Notre Dame because of its high-level running game, led by Jeremiyah Love.
PICK: Jeremiyah Love over 63.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365)
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
