Welcome to Week 10 DFS picks.
We finally hit a road block last week with Iowa State’s Aiden Flora soaring above his projection of 81.5 rushing yards. That snapped a streak of 8 straight correct picks in this piece, though we still managed to go 2-1 last week.
We’ll aim for another 3-0 slate in Week 10.
DFS pick ’em predictions Week 10
All projections via Underdog:
LSU TE Trey’Dez Green lower than 52.5 receiving yards
Trey’Dez Green has been a pretty reliable target when healthy over the past 2 years, but I think this projection is too high. He’s a pretty consistent injury risk. Green missed time last season due to injury and was also out for much of October. He also left the Auburn game early 2 weeks ago. He’s expected to be fine and start on Saturday vs. the Tide, but there’s certainly some added risk that he doesn’t finish this game. Even if he’s healthy all the way through, Green’s target share has hovered around 17% this season. That’s not a huge role and it could be even smaller moving forward with Jackson Harris emerging as a legit threat at wide receiver. Alabama’s defense (which ranks in the 80th percentile in EPA-per-pass allowed) should be keyed in on Green as well.
RELATED: How does Underdog compare to PrizePicks? Our Underdog review has the answer!
Arizona WR Isaiah Mizell lower than 89.5 receiving yards
I don’t make a habit of fading air raid wide receivers, but I’m doing it in this case. Isaiah Mizell has 3 consecutive 130+ yard receiving games, including 2 that cleared the 180-yard threshold. He was a monster in October. However, I think there’s some regression coming — he’s 3rd nationally in yards per target (min. 40 targets). The Wildcats are also only expected to score about 26 points this week (per most markets), which caps Mizell’s expected output accordingly. TCU’s defense ranks 12th nationally in EPA-per-play allowed, so this is a relatively tough matchup for the Wildcats.
Virginia Tech RB Jeffrey Overton Jr. lower than 68.5 rushing yards
Jeffrey Overton Jr. has had a couple of big games this season that are dragging up his overall statistical profile — over 10 yards per carry against VMI and over 8 yards per carry against Boston College. However, his share of team rushing attempts has been declining since he went for 209 yards against Boston College. He had just 36% rushing usage against Clemson, which was his lowest mark against any P4 team this season. SMU’s rushing defense isn’t good, so this pick is more about Overton’s role (and efficiency) than anything matchup-specific.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
