Week 5 of the college football season is in the books.
It was an eventful weekend filled with upsets and surprising results across the country. In this piece, we’ll dissect the happenings of Week 5 from an analytical point of view.
Last week’s version of this piece covered topics such as Alabama’s SEC championship aspirations and USC’s woes with Lincoln Riley, among other ideas.
Here are 5 things I’m buying or selling after Week 5:
Selling: This is the same ol’ Nebraska
Nebraska has been dormant for long enough that the general public no longer has expectations for the Huskers. It hardly even registers as a disappointment that Matt Rhule has only won 9 of his first 20 Big Ten games since taking over in Lincoln.
However, there may be signs of life with this version of Nebraska. The Huskers have a genuinely good offense that’s led by Anthony Colandrea. They rank in the top 20 in EPA-per-play and are in the top 10 nationally early-down success rate.
Colandrea specifically has an above-average completion percentage over expected (CPOE) and pairs that with an elite rushing success rate. The Huskers are also in the 99th percentile for explosive play rate so far this season, per Game on Paper.
The schedule sets up in an interesting way with games against Indiana and Oregon over the next 2 weeks plus a date with Ohio State on Nov. 21. Any version of Nebraska football over the past decade and a half would lose all 3 of those games in blowout fashion.
But if Nebraska can pick off just one of those giants, the Huskers could genuinely be 9-2 entering Week 13 when they go on the road to face Iowa. The rest of the schedule is Washington, Illinois and Rutgers — 3 programs are in the midst of highly-disappointing seasons.
I think now is a good time to buy Nebraska. The Huskers getting to 9+ wins is currently priced at 38% on Kalshi. If you believe in the CFP upside, Nebraska to win 10 games is just 17%.
Buying: Keelon Russell deserves Heisman Trophy consideration
It’s not as if Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell is flying under the radar — he’s getting plenty of praise nationally, especially after beating Mississippi State this weekend. But as good as his raw numbers are … as impressive as he looks to the naked eye … the advanced metrics are just even better.
Against P4 opponents this season, Russell has a 15% CPOE. That’s the highest in the country for any QB with more than 1 game played in the sample. Better than Darian Mensah, Julian Sayin, Josh Hoover, Gunner Stockton and a whole host of other quarterbacks who have started 20+ games in their college careers.
Russell, meanwhile, has 5 meaningful football games at this level. He might already have the best deep ball in college football. About 30% of his drop-backs result in passes that travel 15+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage and he’s completing those attempts at a rate of 27% above expectation.
He’s also still just 19 years old and won’t turn 20 until next spring. How high is his ceiling if he’s already this good? He seems to be getting better and better each week — as does the Alabama offense as a whole, which in general is full of teenagers who are producing like veterans.
It’s certainly possible Russell will fall off at some point — potentially as early as this week against Georgia. But I’ve seen enough in the advanced metrics to believe he’s a serious, serious talent. Anytime you’ve got a quarterback producing like Russell is at a program like Alabama, Heisman Trophy conversation is going to follow.
I can understand Jeremiah Smith topping ballots right now, but I wouldn’t be able to justify having any other player above Russell through 5 weeks. Given that this an award that’s decided in November most years, I think Russell is pretty undervalued in the marketplace right now.
Pick: Keelon Russell to win the Heisman Trophy (10% on Kalshi)
Selling: Georgia vs. Alabama is a toss-up
Arguably the biggest game of the season to-date will take place this weekend as Alabama hosts Georgia.
I think these are probably the 2 best teams in the SEC, with apologies to Texas. But I do think an Alabama blowout is within the possible range of outcomes this weekend even with this game being priced as a virtual toss-up at various college football prediction markets.
Statistically, Alabama has been decisively better. The Tide are No. 1 nationally in net success rate and No. 2 in opponent-adjusted EPA, per Game on Paper. Georgia ranks 11th and 31st, respectively, in those categories.
Alabama’s strength of schedule to this point in the year ranks 23rd, per ESPN’s FPI. Georgia is sitting at No. 97. It’s easy to see why — Alabama’s wins over Florida State, Kentucky, South Carolina and Mississippi State have all been dominant and, for the most part, have aged pretty well. Georgia’s best win is a 41-13 drubbing against an Oklahoma team that might not make a bowl (and UGA out-gained the Sooners by just 7 yards in that contest).
I think Alabama is better at quarterback, wide receiver, offensive coordinator and arguably has the better overall defense, too. Given that this game will be played in Tuscaloosa, I’m surprised the Tide aren’t being priced as clear favorites.
Georgia’s offense has been pretty explosive to start the season (7.93 yards per play!), but I’m skeptical that will continue against high-level opposition. History says UGA’s offense wilts in these spots — the Bulldogs have produced under 6 yards per play in 7 of their last 10 games against ranked SEC opponents.
That sample includes a win over this Alabama program in last year’s SEC Championship Game. The Bulldogs won 28-7 despite gaining just 4.4 yards per play. But this year’s Alabama offense is much more potent — if UGA is going to win this game, it will have to score in bunches.
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Selling: Oklahoma can keep it close against Texas
Both the Sooners and Longhorns were idle in Week 5, but I still want to use this space to break down this rivalry matchup.
Frankly, I’m stunned to see the line for this game hovering anywhere close to 7 points — even if it’s sitting at 7.5 and shaded toward UT at the time of this writing.
Oklahoma’s offense has been abysmal in every game but one this season. The level of disappointment has varied a bit game-to-game. In some games, OU’s incompetence manifested by not being able to move the ball at all. In others, the Sooners were able to move the ball a little bit before promptly turning it over.
A few stats — for the season, Oklahoma is 118th nationally in offensive success rate. Since Week 2, the Sooners have 5 touchdowns, 3 field goal attempts, 8 giveaways and 15 punts. Over that span, they have 37 total points on 36 drives.
I get it — defense matters too, and Oklahoma’s is elite. But that’s been the case before in the Red River Rivalry and hasn’t mattered at all. In 4 head-to-head matchups, Steve Sarkisian’s offense has averaged 6.5 yards per play against Brent Venables in the Cotton Bowl (all other P4 opponents are averaging just 5.4 yards per play vs. Venables’ Sooners).
Moreover, the Cotton Bowl is an absolute pressure cooker. The atmosphere is unlike any other in college sports. Given John Mateer’s noted lack of confidence and composure this season, a trip to Dallas to face a really good Texas defense seems like a potential disaster waiting to happen. I can’t see any good reason for this number to be below double-digits and I would be interested in alt spreads on the Texas side.
Pick: Texas -20.5 (22% on Kalshi)
Buying: Tennessee made the right decision to bench Faizon Brandon
I wrote about Faizon Brandon’s early struggles vs. P4 opposition in a September wrap-up post last week. In that piece, I said I wasn’t sure Brandon was going to keep his starting job for the entire 2026 season.
I didn’t anticipate Brandon losing it just a few days later after another poor half vs. Auburn, but that’s exactly what happened. Looking at the advanced metrics from that game, it’s hard to argue with Josh Heupel’s decision.
Brandon started 3-for-8 with a CPOE of -30%. That sample size isn’t big enough to matter in a single showing, but it was a continuation of a trend for Brandon against good competition this season. He posted wildly-negative CPOE numbers against Georgia Tech and Texas earlier this year, too.
Against P4 competition this season, Brandon had a CPOE of -11.9%. Among quarterbacks with at least 70 dropbacks, that’s dead last. A 17% sack rate and a 44% rushing success rate also pointed to an overall lack of ability to impact the game with his legs.
Time will tell if George MacIntyre is a true upgrade or not, but the early returns were solid. He completed 8-of-10 passes for 86 yards. The reality is it’s difficult to be as inefficient as Brandon was in his first exposure to college football.
Of course, he could rebound from this setback and go on to have a successful career. But for the time being at least, it’s the right move to sit Brandon down — both for the Vols and for his sake.
If MacIntyre can provide stable production in a game-manager role, Tennessee has the running game and defense to potentially get back to the CFP this season.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
