Alabama is No. 1 in the country.
And rightfully so.
The defending national champions have been there since the preseason. They’re 8-0 and their average margin of victory is more than 38 points. Their smallest margin of victory is 22 points.
So can anyone beat the Crimson Tide?
The answer is yes. No. 3 LSU can. This Saturday night in Tiger Stadium.
In fact, here are five reasons why LSU will beat Alabama:
1. Dave Aranda
There’s a reason LSU’s defensive coordinator is the highest-paid assistant coach in college football: He’s really, really good.
Of course, Nick Saban and his staff are really, really good too and, like Aranda and the rest of LSU coach Ed Orgeron’s staff, they have had two weeks to prepare for this.
So both teams will be well prepared.
In this one game, though, Aranda can be a difference-maker. In his first season at LSU two years ago, his defense shut out the Tide for three quarters before Alabama prevailed 10-0. Last season, Aranda’s defense held the Tide to 116 rushing yards and 299 total yards.
But Bama made enough plays in the passing game to prevail, 24-10.
“They exploited us in the passing game,” Orgeron said.
This could be Aranda’s best defense yet and the addition of a host of analysts has greatly enhanced the Tigers’ scouting and game preparation.
“We know what hurts them,” Orgeron said. “We know what they do very well.
“I feel with the additions we are much more suited to play their passing game this year. Now, we’re going to have to play a complete game on defense to stop their run game and their passing game. No one has done it yet. If there’s anybody can do it, it’s our defensive staff. I do believe in them.”
2. DBU
All the preparation in the world doesn’t matter if you don’t have the players to execute the plan successfully. LSU does, especially in the secondary.
Sure, Greedy Williams, Grant Delpit and company will have their hands full with the Tide’s bevy of talented receivers.
“They know how to attack coverages,” Orgeron said. “They’re very well-coached.
“But, you know, we have some good DBs. We lead the country in interceptions (14). I think we match up very well with them. I believe in our guys. I believe in our defensive scheme. I believe we have some of the best DBs in the country. This is going to be a tremendous matchup.”
Orgeron said the hype surrounding Bama’s passing game will be “extra motivation” for his defensive backs.
Aranda will find a way to take Tagovailoa and the Bama offense out of its comfort zone, and someone from DBU will become the first opponent to intercept Tagovailoa this season.
And that will bring reason No. 3 into play:
3. LSU is battle-tested
The Tigers’ schedule hasn’t been quite as difficult as it once seemed, but it still has been one of the more difficult ones in the country and certainly more difficult than Alabama’s.
Sure, Miami hasn’t lived up to its No. 8 preseason ranking and Auburn no longer looks like the No. 7 team in the country. But Georgia is still really good and it was No. 2 when the Tigers pulled the upset three weeks ago.
LSU beat Miami at a neutral site, beat Auburn on the road, coming from behind to win on the final play. Yeah it stumbled at Florida, but even that experience was good preparation for this heavyweight battle.
Alabama, though, has played only one ranked team – No. 22 Texas A&M.
The Crimson Tide could have played LSU’s schedule and still have been undefeated. But they didn’t, so they haven’t had the opportunity to sharpen their edges the way the Tigers have, which will matter in a tight ball game in a hostile environment.
4. Special teams
The Alabama kicking game hasn’t lived up to the standard maintained by the rest of the team.
LSU, meanwhile, struck gold when it signed Cole Tracy as a transfer from Division II Assumption College.
But it’s not just about the field goals and extra points.
Avery Atkins has been outstanding on kickoffs and Zach Von Rosenberg’s punting has helped LSU maintain a field position edge.
Most every kick or punt will be an opportunity for a Tigers advantage and that will add up.
5. Tiger Stadium
No, Alabama won’t be intimidated by the crowd. But in recent years these games have been relatively easy for the Tide when they have been played in Tuscaloosa and gone to the wire when they’ve been played in Baton Rouge.
And this time, the LSU fans have a stronger belief that this team can finish the job against Alabama.
Orgeron said the energy in the stadium and throughout the state are “going to be something that we haven’t seen for a long time in Louisiana.”
In the end, Aranda’s defense featuring DBU, the unfamiliarity of a tight game that goes to the wire, superior special teams and Death Valley on Saturday night will be enough to beat Bama.
Les East is a New Orleans-based football writer who covers LSU for SaturdayDownSouth.com. Follow him on Twitter @Les_East.
