5 reasons why Alabama beats Clemson in the College Football Playoff championship
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Alabama enters the College Football Playoff championship tilt game as a touchdown favorite over Clemson. But is the “favorite” status warranted?
Here are five reasons why Alabama will beat Clemson in the College Football Playoff championship game.
RB DERRICK HENRY
If Clemson can’t contain Derrick Henry, this game will be over before halftime. The Clemson run defense is stout and ranks No. 18 nationally, yielding an average of 124.4 yards per game, which is comparable to LSU at 122.9 YPG. But Henry could care less about any of that, because he blistered LSU for 210 yards and three touchdowns in their Week 10 matchup. The Heisman winner shows up to play against tough competition. He rushed for 147 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1 against Wisconsin’s No. 4-ranked rushing defense in the nation, and tallied a pair of scores and 75 yards before being pulled early in the Tide’s semifinals win over Michigan State in the College Football Playoff. Those two scores moved him past Tim Tebow and Tre Mason for most in a single SEC season. Henry is averaging roughly 167 yards against the eight ranked teams that Alabama has faced this season.
TURNOVERS
One of the biggest disparities between Alabama and Clemson is in the turnover department. The Tigers are among the worst teams in the nation (No. 113) when it comes to coughing the ball up to opponents, having done so 26 times on the year (14 interceptions, 12 fumbles). While Dabo Swinney’s team might be able to get away with that in the ACC (Louisville ranks even lower than Clemson), Alabama’s defense will make them pay for their mistakes. The Crimson Tide defense led the SEC in turnover margin this season with nine more turnovers gained than lost. Plus, they’re not averse to taking a pick to the house, with four interception return touchdowns on the season, trailing only Buffalo nationally.
RUN DEFENSE
As much as we fawn over the Alabama defense, this year’s unit (256.7 YPG) would statistically rank last among the three national-title winning Crimson Tide squads of 2012 (250. YPG), 2011 (183.6 YPG) and 2009 (244.1 YPG) in total defense. That’s not to knock a defense that currently ranks No. 2 in the nation in that category. The true strength of the Tide’s defense is its run defense, which would rank first among the aforementioned title-winning teams. Alabama allowed just 29 total rushing yards to Michigan State in the semifinals and a mere 15 total yards on the ground to Florida in the SEC Championship. Georgia’s Nick Chubb is the lone running back to rush for more than 100 yards against the Tide this season. Clemson can run the ball, averaging 228.6 YPG. But just ask LSU’s Leonard Fournette (31 yards) and Arkansas’ Alex Collins (26 yards) what they think of the Alabama run defense.
| Year | Total Defense (YPG) | Rush Defense (YPG) |
| 2015 | 256.7 | 70.5 |
| 2012 | 250.0 | 76.4 |
| 2011 | 183.6 | 72.2 |
| 2009 | 244.1 | 78.1 |
EXPERIENCE
Simply put, Nick Saban and Alabama have been here and done that. The Crimson Tide have won three of the last six national titles, while the Tigers haven’t finished higher than No. 8 in the AP Poll during the seven-year Dabo Swinney era. Alabama has never finished below No. 7 in the nation during that same time frame. The most-telling stat, however, is Saban’s unblemished 4-0 record in title games with both Alabama and LSU.
QB JAKE COKER
Who would have thought we’d be heralding Jake Coker this late in the season, but the senior transfer from Florida State has earned it with his play of late, guiding the Crimson Tide to an impressive win over a staunch Michigan State defense in the College Football Playoff semifinals. The quarterback has improved his accuracy immensely down the stretch, tossing just two interceptions in his last eight games. He was poised when it counted against the Spartans, connecting on 25 of his 30 attempts for a career-high 286 passing yards and two touchdowns. If Coker can maintain that consistency, and get another solid run game from Henry, then Alabama should defeat Clemson for the title.
Chris Wuensch is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers South Carolina and Tennessee.
