It’s time for the final week of the 2025 regular season.
As we do every week, this piece will seek to find 5 upset candidates for the upcoming slate of games. Last week, we went 2-3 and finished slightly profitable with +0.2 units overall. Pittsburgh (+120) and Stanford (+130) both won outright for us last week.
Upset picks Week 14
Here are 5 upset picks for this week’s slate along with the best odds from a variety of real money betting apps:
Georgia Tech +480 over Georgia
This is a long-shot, but I think it’s a good time to buy low on Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets played a better game than the score line suggested against Pitt last week. I expect Brent Key and his staff will have great game plan for the Bulldogs, who are probably overrated as a top-5 team based on how they’ve played this season. Georgia has roughly 1 more win than expected based on Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy formula. UGA will be in the Playoff regardless of the outcome of this game. I think there’s value on the Yellow Jackets.
Pick: Georgia Tech +480 via FanDuel
Clemson +120 over South Carolina
Speaking of Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy formula, very few teams have been less fortunate than Clemson this season. The Tigers have 6 wins but Connelly’s metric suggests they should have 7.26. Clemson is on the road here, but I think the Tigers should be favored. South Carolina is riding high after a blowout win over Coastal Carolina. The week before, the Gamecocks were in position to beat Texas A&M but suffered a historic collapse and ended the game with a net EPA that was well below average. I think the wrong team is favored here.
Pick: Clemson +120 via bet365
Colorado State +150 over Air Force
Air Force has not had the same punch offensively since Liam Szarka went down with a season-ending injury a couple of weeks ago. Albeit on a lower volume due to playing for a service academy, Szarka was one of the most efficient and explosive passers in the country. That’s in addition to averaging almost 5 yards per carry on the ground. The main problem here is that Air Force also has arguably the worst defense in the entire country. Colorado State has struggled this season, but I don’t think the Falcons should be favored over anyone without Szarka.
Pick: Colorado State +150 via DraftKings
Cincinnati +150 over TCU
I really don’t see much separation between these teams, so I’ll go with the dog. The Bearcats actually rank a few spots higher on Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play metric. Cincy has lost 3 straight games entering this matchup but it still has an impressive statistical profile on offense for the full season. TCU gives up a ton of explosive plays through the air and I think Cincinnati will be able to hit a few of those.
Pick: Cincinnati +150 via DraftKings
Northwestern +220 over Illinois
Illinois has been ranked for much of this season but I’ve never been high on the Illini. They hit a low-point this weekend with a 27-10 loss to Wisconsin. At least I thought it was a low point — Illinois is still favored by about a touchdown against a competent Northwestern team this weekend. The Wildcats have quietly had a very nice season and I think they’re being underrated by the market at this price.
Pick: Northwestern +220 via BetMGM
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
