Friedlander: After Week 1, it’s already time to reset the ACC title race
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Hiding from your mistakes was a whole lot easier before social media.
Make some bad football predictions? No problem.
Just toss your preseason ballot into the recycling bin. Or if you really want to get rid of the evidence, there was always the trusty shredder.
Not anymore.
You can’t even count on the delete button to save you from humiliation.
The internet is forever.
So to get out ahead of the inevitable, I readily admit to having picked Florida State and Virginia Tech to play in the ACC Championship Game on Dec. 7. Even though there are still 13 more weeks left in the season, that prediction has already gone up in flames.
The Seminoles have taken themselves out of contention with consecutive losses to conference rivals Georgia Tech and Boston College. Along with some personnel and other issues that are beyond fixing.
The Hokies, meanwhile, lost their opener to Vanderbilt.
Even though it wasn’t a conference game and won’t mathematically affect Tech’s chances of finishing in the league’s top 2 and earning a trip to Charlotte, losing to the Commodores – one of the dregs of college football – should automatically exclude any team from winning any power conference championship.
Of course, I’m not the only one whose predictions have flopped faster and more dramatically than a soccer player begging for a call. FSU and Clemson, the top 2 teams in the ACC’s preseason poll and – coincidentally – the only 2 schools currently suing the league, are a combined 0-3.
So where does that leave us?
With the favored Seminoles and Tigers providing an anchor at the bottom of the new 17-team conference standings, it’s already time to reset our projections and take another stab at predicting which teams will be the last 2 standing once all the games are played.
ESPNBet sportsbook has set Miami as the new favorite at +175.
No argument here.
The Hurricanes certainly passed the eye test in their 41-17 demolition of Florida on Saturday. There’s also legitimate reason to believe that this Miami team is different from all the others that have failed to live up to expectations since joining the ACC in 2004.
While The U’s roster has always been loaded with talent, as this one is, it has never had a difference-maker running the show as it does now in quarterback Cam Ward. If Mario Cristobal can stay out of the way and avoids the kind of season-defining mistakes that have followed him from Oregon to Coral Gables, there’s no reason the Hurricanes shouldn’t be the team to beat.
But which team will come out of the pack and earn the opportunity to beat them in the championship game?
It’s easy to fall victim to opening week overreaction and write off Clemson based on its tank job against Georgia and the feeding frenzy over Dabo Swinney’s disdain for the transfer portal. But it’s impossible to get an accurate read on their actual status based on 1 game against the best team in the country over the past 3 seasons.
So let’s pump the brakes on that obituary. At least until NC State comes to Death Valley in a couple of weeks.
Speaking of the Wolfpack, their stock has tumbled in value faster than that of the platform formerly known as Twitter since Elon Musk took over.
Again, way too soon to give up on them.
ESPNBet hasn’t. State, which struggled more than necessary against Western Carolina, still has the 4th-best odds to win the ACC at +1000, behind only Miami, Clemson (+300) and Louisville (+750).
We’ll find out a lot more about Dave Doeren’s team Saturday against Tennessee.
Louisville, Syracuse, newcomer SMU and, at least offensively, Pitt all had impressive performances, albeit against FCS competition. North Carolina earned a road win against a power conference opponent while Georgia Tech and Boston College have thrown their helmets into the ring with their impressive early victories.
It’s a series of events that reinforce the scouting report former Louisville quarterback Jack Plummer gave his friend and former Cal teammate Fernando Mendoza upon the Bears’ entry into the ACC.
“He told me that ACC is a more well-rounded conference (than the dearly departed Pac-12),” Mendoza said back in July. “There’s better depth. The top teams might not be as good, but all the other teams are a lot better.”
With the gap between those top teams and everyone else suddenly appearing smaller than ever, the ACC race has become wide open. And almost everyone is invited.
So who’s going to play Miami on Dec. 7?
It’ll be fun watching how it all plays out over the next couple of months.
Clemson has the best homegrown talent. Louisville has the best free agent class. Georgia Tech has the best quarterback. Boston College has the best offensive line and the most favorable schedule while NC State has an elite defense and plenty of offensive potential.
Since I have to make a pick, I’m going with Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals to make a return trip to Charlotte. But I’ll keep the trusty shredder close by.
Just in case.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
